Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 010306
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...

809 PM...EVENING UPDATE...PRECIP STARTED EARLIER THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT RAIN AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIXING/CHANGING TO A LIGHT SNOW AND
ADDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH WITH A MIX SOUTH THROUGH LATE
EVENING. WHILE PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW...INTENSITY STILL
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A
SHORT DURATION/BURST OF SOME MODERATE SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH AIR
TEMPS AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING MEANS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...06Z...MAY BE A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
BUT SINCE EXPECTED AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LOW...
UPDATED LOWER AMOUNTS THIS EVENING REALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OVERALL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS
EVENING AND NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES/TIMING. CMS

&&

.SHORT TERM...
312 PM CST

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IS BY FAR THE PRIMARY FOCUS...WITH THE FOLLOWING MAIN
CONCERNS:
-POSSIBILITY OF PTYPE ISSUES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS
OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF MY AREA.
-PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDS
OF MY AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
-POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WITH WHITE OUT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR ANY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ONE IF THE WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS STRONG. ONLY CHANCES
TO GOING HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND THROUGH 06 UTC MONDAY FOR MY
WESTERN CWA AND THROUGH 12 UTC MONDAY FOR MY EASTERN CWA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY
IMPRESSIVE PLUMB OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DOWN
STREAM OF A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH. IN FACT...THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING OUT OF KOAX INDICATED PWATS UP AROUND 0.64 INCHES...WHICH
IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE...OUR MAIN
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT DAY IN AND HALF...IS NOW NOTED AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS
MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF THIS
MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION BY MID
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE...AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY
SOUTH OF PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE. WARMER AIR INITIALLY...WILL
LIKELY ALLOW THIS PRECIP TO START AS SOME LIGHT RAIN...AND THIS
INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN COULD GET FARTHER NORTH THEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
SWITCH OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HOWEVER...WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLOWER TO
ERODE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE RAIN THAN SNOW THIS EVENING. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE ACROSS MY SOUTHERN CWA IS LOW WITH TIMING OF
TRANSITION TO SNOW.

SNOW SHOULD FALL AT A GOOD RATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MY
AREA AS A BAND OF 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOWFALL TONIGHT ALONE COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE TOUGH FORECAST TO SHARPEN OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THUS RESULTING IN MORE ROBUST DYNAMICS SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS A STRONGER SOLUTION WILL NOT ONLY
SUPPORT MORE SNOWFALL...BUT ALSO STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS
SUCH...WIND SPEEDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. I WILL NOT
UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IT MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED IF A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER SURFACE SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH IMPACT STORM FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 850 MB LOW IS SET TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THIS AGAIN COULD PUT THE SNOW TO
RAIN LINE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A SHARPE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRADIENT OVER MY FAR SOUTH...OR
JUST OUTSIDE OF MY AREA TO THE SOUTH.

THE TRACK OF THE 850 AND 700 MB LOWS WOULD SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP
WITHIN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE. AS SUCH SNOW RATES IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES TOMORROW. SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
ACROSS MY WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  MY EASTERN
CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUING. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...INVERSION HEIGHTS DO NOT GET
VERY HIGH...BUT THE FACT THAT THEY WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE
MADE THE CHANGES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE TO THE GOING WINTER STORM WARNING.

TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO TOP OUT NEAR A FOOT IN MANY
AREAS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY GETTING A COUPLE MORE INCHES THAN THIS.
IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS BECOMING HIGHER IS GETTING
HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO 3/4 OF MY AREA.
CONFIDENCE ON TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS IS A BIT LOWER ACROSS MY CENTRAL
ILLINOIS COUNTIES...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXING ISSUES.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
312 PM CST

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MARKED WITH EXITING
SNOWFALL WITH THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM...WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR THE LAKE ON MONDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
EXTENT OF THIS VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL DETERMINE THE
PLACEMENT/DURATION OF THESE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO
ILLINOIS DURING THIS TIME. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED WITH TOO MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MODEST INVERSION HEIGHTS. SHIFTING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FLOW TO CONTINUE BACKING AND
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND
INTO MONDAY EVENING. APPROACHING SPEED MAX MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
STEER ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TOWARDS THE CWA AND DO THINK IT
WILL REACH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT IT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH
DISJOINTING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS NORTHWEST
FLOW USHERS IN AN ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MORE OF A VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARING TO BE
A POSSIBILITY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR AND HELP WITH
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS MUCH
COLDER LOW TEMPS...WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPS APPEARING LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SNOW INTENSITY VARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING MORE
  WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
  SUNDAY.

* MAINLY IFR VSBY IN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF
  IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. 1/2-3/4SM
  VSBY LIKELY FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
  POSSIBLY THE EVENING. PERIODIC 1/4SM VSBY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* VARIABLE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
  INCREASE IN SPEED LATE TONIGHT...THEN RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY
  MORNING. 30-35 KT GUSTS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO
  END. IFR VSBY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH IFR VSBY. CIGS ARE
FALLING QUICKLY SO HAVE SHOWN A QUICKER LOWERING TREND IN THE
LATEST TAF. EXPECT THAT SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVES LATE
TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAY NEED TO TWEAK TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
STEADIEST VSBY BELOW 3/4SM BUT TRENDS ARE STILL ON TRACK OVERALL.

FROM 00Z...

TONIGHT...MAJOR WINTER STORM IS GETTING UNDERWAY THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION IS STEADILY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND HAS MAINLY BEEN RAIN THUS FAR BUT AM NOW STARTING TO SEE SOME
REPORTS OF WET SNOW. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH IS ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE IN. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MORE QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW AT THE TERMINALS AFTER BEGINNING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH SOME SLEET ALSO POSSIBLE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
VARIABILITY IN VSBY AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH
PREVAILING 1-2SM VSBY...BUT CONFIDENCE 1-2SM VSBY WILL AT LEAST
OCCUR AT TIMES THIS EVENING. SUB 1SM VSBY IS LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATION RATES OF UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH PER HOUR
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...THE PEAK SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH 1/2-3/4SM VSBY EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. 1/4SM
VSBY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS WINDS PICK UP CAUSING BLOWING SNOW AS SNOW TYPE BECOMES
DRIER/FLUFFIER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS LIKELY.
AM CONCERNED THAT GYY MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KT GIVEN PROXIMITY
TO THE LAKE. ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.5-0.75 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH
SOME 1 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORESO DURING THE EVENING SO SUB 1SM
VSBY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH 1/2SM VSBY CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS SNOW IS FALLING AND THE WINDS CONTINUE. THE
END TIME OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT OF VSBY IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH RFD SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INTERMITTENT CHANGES IN SNOW INTENSITY
  THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING LATE.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY IFR VSBY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH
  CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY 1/2-3/4SM VSBY SUNDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
  PERIODIC 1/4SM VSBY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS INCLUDING 30-35 KT GUSTS SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN END TIME OF SNOW BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IT
  CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...CHANCE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
SNOW AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY.  IFR POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...CHANCE SNOW. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY...IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.  VFR/WX NIL OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

FRIDAY...VFR/WX NIL.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
156 PM CST

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A PERIOD OF GALES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE LOW
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WHEN THE LOW WILL STILL BE STRENGTHENING AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE
FOUND ON NORTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SEEMING A
PRETTY SOLID BET FOR A PERIOD OF GALES. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LOW...35 TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE...NOT ONLY FOR THE OPEN WATERS BUT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WINDS BEGIN
NORTHEAST...THEN TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE GRAZES THE NORTHERN LAKE TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD IN THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR A CALMER PERIOD...BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY.

KMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033-
     ILZ039 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
     6 AM MONDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
     LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...NOON SUNDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...6 AM SUNDAY TO
     NOON SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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