Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 191442
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

320 AM...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND THEN LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

LOWER CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA...AND WILL BE
CLEARING THERE BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST AREAS AND THE FROST ADVISORY AND ITS TIMING
IS ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA TODAY REACHING THE
NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN
THIS LOW AND THE DEPARTING HIGH WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO START BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS.

AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST INDIANA
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...
ITS POSSIBLE WINDS MAY TURN ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO REACH EASTERN COOK COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE
PRECIP DISSIPATES AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BUT MODELS
WEAKEN THIS CONSIDERABLY SHOWING NO PRECIP REACHING THE CWA. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

KMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

PATCHY GROUND FOG IN RURAL AREAS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING.
WILL LIKELY BE SOME AT LEAST SPORIDIC GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THE DURATION
AND INTENSITY OF THE GUSTS SOME. WINDS AROUND 2000FT AGL INCREASE
TO 35-40KT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING
IN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG ENOUGH SFC WINDS TO PRECLUDE A BIG
LLWS PROBLEM. FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING BUT LITTLE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP EXISTS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHER THAN THIS MORNING`S RURAL GROUND FOG LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
209 AM CDT

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSLATING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THE
DURATION OF GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LOOKS
TO BE SHORT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A DURATION PROBABLY ONLY A
COUPLE-FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL SET-UP HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES AND JUST INCLUDE A FEW GUSTS TO
GALES IN THE GLF/GRIDS. A PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS LOW MOVES MORE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY MIDWEEK
WINDS/WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE ON THE LAKE WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

IN...FROST ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 AM
     SUNDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MONDAY.

&&

$$

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