000
FXUS63 KLOT 290312
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

901 PM...EVENING UPDATE...WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. PIA
REPORTED 10 MINUTES OF LIGHT RAIN AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER NOW PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST IL AND EXPECT A
FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPS HOLDING STEADY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH A FEW SITES
WARMING A DEGREE OR SO IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT/SPOTTY NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING CONCERNS.

SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IA WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...
IT WILL TUG LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...THUS CLEARING SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. AS
THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP/QPF OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THIS DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN DOES MATERIALIZE...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMP TRENDS ONCE CLOUDS
CLEAR TO SEE IF THEY DROP BACK TO NEAR FREEZING...THUS POTENTIAL
ICING CONCERNS...WHICH WOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR
THIRD OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...WILL BE MAINTAINING AIR TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. CMS

&&

.SHORT TERM...
340 PM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL AND TEMP TRENDS
TONIGHT...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. INITIAL DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME THIS EVENING BUT
INCREASING ASCENT THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLUMN TO
SATURATE...WITH DEVELOPING PRECIP TO THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
GUIDANCE DOES VARY WITH REGARDS TO WHEN THE DRIER AIR WILL BE
OVERCOME...WITH SOME INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS THIS
EVENING AND WITH OTHERS POINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...STRAYING AWAY FROM THE DRIER GUIDANCE. PERSISTENT
FORCING THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN DOES APPEAR TO
BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OCCURS...AND ESPECIALLY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...DO ANTICIPATE FOR SOME SLIGHT COOLING OF THE CURRENT MID
30 TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE A
STEADY TEMP RISE IS OBSERVED FOR ALL AREAS. IF THE PRECIP WERE TO
OCCUR SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN CURRENT THINKING...THEN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR. THIS TIME FRAME WOULD
BE IN THE 1-4Z PERIOD WHERE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WILL BE
OBSERVED...BEFORE A RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR. THIS
TEMP RISE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO A SMALL
SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW...WITH ONCE AGAIN RAIN THEN EXPECTED EVEN INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT BEST DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR MORE TOWARDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING INTO MID MORNING AS SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES
PUSH THROUGH...WITH THE RAIN BECOMING ALL SNOW THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD BE EXITING DURING THIS TRANSITION
WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
AS LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT BETTER FOCUS WILL
INITIALLY BE FURTHER TO THE EAST. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS...FOCUS FOR BETTER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA...WITH THE PORTER COUNTY AREA
WITHIN THE CWA LIKELY OBSERVING THIS BEST DEVELOPMENT. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY HELP THIS
SNOW TO DIMINISH WHILE SHIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LONG TERM...
340 PM CST

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN TO START THE PERIOD WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE STILL APPEARS
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH
CONFIDENCE OF THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA LOWERING TODAY. PREVIOUS
CONSISTENCY AMONG VARYING GUIDANCE IS NOT PRESENT TODAY...WITH
GUIDANCE RANGING FROM LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO VERY LITTLE TO NONE.
AM NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED IN THE SHIFT WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
POTENTIAL PRECIP ADVERTISED TODAY AND DID NOT CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE COULD SHIFT BACK ONCE AGAIN.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE CONSISTENCY OF THIS POTENTIAL BEFORE POPS ARE
LOWERED. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH A MORE FAVORED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
  TURNING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHARPLY NORTHWEST
  BY MID MORNING. GUSTS 30-35 KT MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH
  AFTERNOON.

* CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW
  HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.

* CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
  LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

* RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND COLD
  FRONT.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM IN ALOFT WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND
OF RETURNS QUICKLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
SURFACE OBS SHOWS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND
UNDER THESE RETURNS AND ANY THAT IS IS LIGHT AND SHORT LIVED. WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCSH MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE ALSO WARMING AS THIS BAND APPROACHES SO FREEZING PRECIP
THREAT IS MINIMAL. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEARING BEHIND THIS
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP AND AHEAD OF A BAND OF MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT THIS LOWER CLOUD
COVER TO REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BIT
TOO FAST ON THE TIMING. DRIZZLE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS PROBABLY MIST REDUCING VSBY TO MVFR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE MENTION BUT IT MAY BE PRETTY SPOTTY.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FROM 00Z...

CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO AND MOVING EASTWARD. CURRENT SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SPORADICALLY GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. RADAR
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA SHOWS SOME ELEVATED RETURNS WITH LITTLE IF
ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. RADAR RETURNS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOCALLY. AM NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH
PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION IN THE TAFS. THINGS MAY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A DRIZZLY SET UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. FREEZING
PRECIP IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TEMPS AT OR AROUND FREEZING AT THE
CURRENT TIME BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE OVERNIGHT SO
THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL -FZRA SHOWERS IS SHORT.

CIGS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE BULK
OF LOWER CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BUT MAY BE A LITTLE FAST WITH THIS IN THE
TAFS. ALSO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRING FOR A SHORT
TIME JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.
DETAILS WILL LIKELY NEED REFINEMENT.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME
VARIABLE FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE MAIN LOW PASSES OVERHEAD BUT A
QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL PICK UP MARKEDLY AND EXPECT GUSTS PUSHING 30 KT DURING
TH LATE MORNING AND 30-35 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A GRADUAL
DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LOWERING BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
  QUICKLY IT WILL OCCUR. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRING AND
  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF BEST POTENTIAL.

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING TONIGHT BUT MEDIUM-
  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IT BEING SPOTTY IF IT DOES.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MID-LATE THURSDAY
  MORNING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
           WINDS.
SUNDAY...SNOW AND IFR LIKELY. NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
         WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
211 PM CST

I HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LAKES
REGION FROM THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 30 KT TONIGHT...THEN A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALE FORCE
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS MUCH COLD AIR SPILLS IN OVER
THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. I HAVE INCLUDED MY ILLINOIS
NEAR SHORES IN THIS GALE WARNING AS IT APPEARS THE OFF SHORE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LOW
END GALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKES ON SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS (25 TO 30 KT) APPEAR LIKELY IN ITS WAKE AS A VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAKE.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 11 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-
     LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
     LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868...2 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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