Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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FXUS63 KLOT 142002
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
302 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
1143 AM CDT

Main concerns through this evening/tonight are the continued
threat for additional torrential downpours and flooding along
with some severe potential. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include Will and Grundy counties, based on 1-3"+ amounts this
morning across northern Will, current radar trends and expectation
of additional rounds of heavy rain through tonight.

Latest surface analysis indicates the warm front roughly along the
Interstate 80 corridor. Regional radar mosaic indicates a large
shield of showers and thunderstorms stretching from southern lower
Michigan to IA/MO border area. A stout short-wave/vort max
embedded in strong west-southwest mid-level flow well ahead of
large scale trough back across the Plains is causing these
reinforcing showers and storms. From this activity, a very
expansive deck of clouds has formed. Latest guidance trends
indicate that there is not likely to be any appreciable break in
the convection in this area.

Due to continued rounds of convection and cloud cover, it is quite
uncertain how much if any surface based instability can be
realized along and north of the I-80 corridor through this evening.
Even in a cool season set-up with upper echelon deep layer and
low level shear such as we have today, the possible lack of any
surface based instability casts doubt on a higher coverage surface
based severe risk in aforementioned area (along/north of I-80).
It appears the main threats will perhaps be isolated-widely
scattered instances of hail and wind. The potential wind threat
even with no SB/ML CAPE would be owing to extremely strong wind
fields punching through low level stable layer in any bowing
segment that develops this afternoon and then this evening with
cold front. With this all being said, if any SB/ML instability can
be realized, cannot rule out an isolated tornado with any semi-
discrete supercell or QLCS mesovortex.

Near/along and just south of the warm front, surface observations
indicate temperatures into the 70s and dew points into the lower
60s, such as at KPNT. Am most concerned for development of
sufficient surface based instability into this area for a surface
based severe risk, including damaging winds and an isolated
tornado. For additional details on the overall severe risk, see
the SPC Day 1 outlook updates.

There are no significant changes with thinking on the heavy rain
and flooding threat. Radar estimates and reports from hardest hit
northern La Salle to central Cook corridor indicate storm total
amounts of 2.5 to as much as 4 inches in spots already along with
minor road flooding having occurred. Nearly off the charts PWAT
values for mid October of near 1.5 inches on 12z DVN/ILX RAOBS
and possibly as high as 1.8 inches per SPC Mesoanalysis and about
500 j/kg of MUCAPE will continue to yield extremely efficient
rainfall rates in thunderstorms through tonight. With the rain
that has already fallen serving as a priming mechanism, remain
concerned for flash flooding potential and as mentioned earlier
have expanded watch to include Will and Grundy.

Castro

&&

.SHORT TERM...
250 AM CDT

Through tonight...

The main forecast concerns for today and tonight are, the
increasing threat of very heavy rainfall from multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, and also the threat of a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms have been developing across portions of
north central Illinois over the past couple hours in response to
an increase in isentropic upglide, and moisture advection atop a
surface boundary located near the I-80 corridor. This activity is
likely to continue to overspread much of northern Illinois over
the next few hours as warm and moist advection continues to occur
atop the surface boundary. The eastward movement to these storms
is likely to set up training of cells over the same areas into
this morning, and unseasonably high precipitable water values (in
excess of 1.5") setting up over the area, expect these storms to
be efficient heavy rainfall producers. Any break in the activity
this morning looks to be short lived, as several additional waves
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift across northern
Illinois later this morning into the afternoon.

The surface boundary over the area this morning will try to begin
shifting northward as a warm front later today in response to a
deepening and fast moving area of low pressure shifting over
eastern IA and into WI. The northward movement of this front may
initially be halted due to the extensive shower and storm activity
this morning, but as the low shift towards WI this evening,
expect this warm front to be forced northward.

The wind field through the atmospheric column is expected to
increase dramatically through the day in response to strong
dynamics of this deepening low. As a result, very impressive low
and deep layer shear profiles are expected to set up across much
of the warm sector by this evening. With another line of showers
and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of an eastward
advancing cold front this evening, there is concern that severe
storms could be a real concern over northern Illinois given the
strong wind field. Overall, this still appears to be a high shear-
lower CAPE environment, so we will have to rely on the strong
dynamics of the storm system to help produce the severe storms
this evening. These are always trick types of setups for severe
storms, and as a result, the latest forecast and observational
information will need to be monitored closely today. At this time,
it appears that that damaging winds would be the primary
potential severe concern with a possible squall line shifting
eastward across northern Illinois. There will also be a nonzero
threat of tornados as well given the high low-level shear and
proximately to the area of low pressure entering southern WI this
evening.

Given the likelihood of several rounds of very heavy rainfall
training over the same areas today into tonight, flooding will be
a big concern. For this reason, we have opted to issue a flash
flood watch for areas mainly north of I-80 through tonight.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM...
301 PM CDT

Sunday night through Saturday...

Overall quiet weather expected during the upcoming week as high
pressure builds across the midwest behind the departing cold front
early in the week then settles along the east coast through the
end of the week. Southerly flow develops later Monday into Tuesday
behind the surface ridge axis allowing the area to undergo a
warming trend early through the middle of the week. Temperatures
return to unseasonably warm levels Tuesday on as upper ridge
gradually amplifies through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

Low pressure is centered over the mid Missouri Valley this
afternoon with a warm front draped east across northern
Illinois. The warm front has been the focus for repeated rounds of
showers and thunderstorms so far today and expect this to
continue through the evening. Thunderstorms have been increasing
and then decreasing slightly in coverage in response to low
amplitude waves that have thus far proven hard to time. Have taken
a stab at timing these peak and lull trends including tempo
groups for lower conditions, but confidence in these specific
times is low and bottom line is that thunderstorms will continue
to be an issue across much of the region through the rest of the
day. As the surface low lifts into southwestern Wisconsin late
this evening lifting the warm front north of the terminals, this
should result in somewhat lower coverage and less thunderstorm
activity for the terminals late this afternoon into early evening.
A trailing cold front will then sweep across the region late this
evening and overnight with a line or broken line of thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front. This will likely be the last chance
for thunder at the terminals. Winds swing westerly behind the
front with very strong gusts in excess of 30 kt developing during
the predawn and early morning hours Sunday. Strong gusty west to
northwest winds will persist through the day along with gradually
improving MVFR level cold-air stratocumulus.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
254 PM CDT

Low pressure over the mid Missouri Valley this afternoon will
continue to gradually deepen as it lifts across central Lake
Michigan late this evening and overnight. Strong southerly winds
develop south of the low track while moderately strong northeast
flow will be in place north of the low track through this evening.
Gales will develop across the lake this evening and overnight
ahead of the low, then as the low shifts east of Lake Michigan
Sunday morning, winds will further strengthen to 40-45 kt as
winds turn north to northwesterly and colder air overspreads the
region behind a strong cold front. Winds should very gradually
weaken through the day Sunday and drop back below gale force by
early to mid evening. South to southwest flow returns Monday and
is expected to stay in place through most of the upcoming week as
high pressure becomes anchored along the east coast. Flow may
strengthen to gale force or near gale force at times during the
upcoming week.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022
     until 4 AM Sunday.

IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 AM
     Sunday to 4 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ777-LMZ779...10 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday.

&&

$$

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