Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141104
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
504 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017

Quiet and mild to warm weather will be the rule this forecast period
as the next chance for precipitation won`t come until the Sunday
night/Monday timeframe. Above normal temperatures (normal is 43-45
for KC through this forecast period) are expected to begin today.
Decreasing clouds and downslope westerly flow will allow highs to
rise into the low to mid 50s. The coolest day of the week will come
on Wednesday as a upper level trough digs from the Great Lakes into
the Ohio River Valley. This will lead to cooler northwesterly flow
aloft over the area on the back side of the trough. However, highs
will still remain above normal in the mid 40s to near 50.

The warm weather will arrive on Thursday as the Great Lakes trough
shifts east and strong upper level ridging moves into the Great
Plains. Meanwhile, at the surface, strong southwesterly flow will
aid in highs soaring into the upper 50s to mid 60s which is 20
degrees above average. The ridge axis will build directly over the
region on Friday with continued warm air advection. Highs will be in
the mid 60s to near 70! Saturday the ridge breaks down a bit as a
upper low moves through the region and a weak cold front is pushed
into the area. Temperatures will still remain well above normal
however, with highs still in the mid 60s. On Sunday, strong upper
level ridging will reassert itself over the region and temperatures
will again range from the mid 60s to near 70. It isn`t until Sunday
night/Monday that a upper level trough moves into the western Plains
and forces a cold front towards the area and brings the next chance
for shower to the region. Temperatures will still remain mild to
begin next week with highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 504 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017

VFR conds are expected with dmshg high clouds thru the pd. Lgt and
vrb winds this morning will increase to 5-10kts out of the NNW by
15Z and will prevail thru the TAF pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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