Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 132338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
538 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Main focus in the short term will be drizzle/stratus and perhaps
some fog potential tonight as moisture advects into the region.
Winds will remain sustained at 5 kts or above, which should keep
visibilities from tanking, but will also support the strong
advection of higher surface Td`s to near overnight temperatures.
The best potential for drizzle or very light rain showers will be
in central MO, where isentropic lift and thus forcing for precip
will be a bit stronger.

Cloud cover could be a limiting factor to temperatures tomorrow,
but models differ strongly in how persistent stratus will be from
mid-morning onward. The GFS and NAM both show their typical
tendencies with low-level moisture (NAM more persistent with
moisture, GFS mixing out more quickly), so is difficult to
determine which is right and how well temperatures will be able to
rise during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Have trended
down temperatures just a few degrees in central MO where the low
clouds may be more persistent, and will just watch trends over-
night and into tomorrow morning.

Frontal passage Thursday is still expected during the afternoon,
which will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s to possibly
near 70 degrees before fropa occurs. Drizzle and low clouds are
again possible in the morning, but should mix out and allow for at
least scattered sunshine ahead of the front. A few showers are
possible along the front, but the best coincidence of moisture/
lift will occur just south of the CWA, and have kept PoPs low to
nominal in all but central MO. Colder air will filter in over-
night, pushing highs on Friday to below-normal readings in the
30s.

A quick recovery to more seasonable temperatures will follow the
rest of the weekend, then the early week forecast for next week
remains muddy with multiple changes to time/position of the
eventual cold frontal passage and its associated upper trough.
Earlier runs of the GFS and EC had the surface front through on
Monday morning, making the last day of the extended holiday
weekend a damp and chilly day, but recent runs of the EC again
slow the frontal progression. Will continue to monitor and allow
"wintry mix" to be mentioned in the extended until better refined.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

The concerns for this TAF period will be three-fold: the first,
possible reductions in visbys due to developing fog; the second,
reduced ceilings as low-level stratus takes over; and the third,
breezy conditions by the end of the period. Initially, VFR
conditions will prevail but as the night continues and low-level
moisture advects into the region, indications are pointing to fog
potentially developing in and around the terminal areas
overnight. As that moisture continues pumping in, low-level
stratus looks to take over as the dawn hours approach, looking to
last into the midday hours as it`s slow to lift and dissipate.
However, once the cloud cover clears out, accelerated winds just
above the surface will be able to be tapped into, allowing for
gusty southwesterly winds to translate down to the surface on
Wednesday afternoon. Although outside of this TAF period, calmer
winds look to take back over after sunset tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...lg


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