Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270514
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night):

Severe weather will be likely this evening into tonight with all
modes of severe weather possible. Storms that have fired this morning
in a uncapped environment of strong instability between 2000-4000
J/Kg of MUCAPE have continued to fire along subsequent outflow
boundaries and consequently severe storms have persist into the
afternoon. 0-1km shear has been weak however, 0-6km remains strong
between 40-50kts. This strong 0-6km shear is expected to continue
into this evening/tonight as is the aforementioned strong
instability. A warm front analyzed extending from a surface low out
across swrn Kansas extends to near the KS/NE border and into the KC
Metro. This is allowing winds to be backed at the surface and despite
weak low- level shear may still be sufficient to allow tornadoes to
develop. As the event unfolds, supercellular storms from this
afternoon are expected to congeal into a linear mode with winds being
the main threat however with surface winds remaining backed,
tornadoes along the line may still be possible. Also, of concern is
the potential for flash flooding as PWAT values of of 1.75"-2.25"
exist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models hint that
storms may become anchored on the surface warming front with training
of storms possible. Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall
over the past few days and the potential for training...flash
flooding is a threat. Consequently a flash flood watch has been
issued through 18Z tomorrow. Storms are expected to weaken after
midnight be still persist into tomorrow morning. Storms and cloud
cover that persist into the morning hours tomorrow should help to
limit instability tomorrow. Although scattered thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day tomorrow stronger storm are not likely
until later in the evening. This will occur as the upper level trough
moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline
across western Kansas. These storms will progress eastward and move
into the western CWA in a weakened form tomorrow night. On Saturday,
the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but
forces a cold front through the CWA. A few storms could be strong if
conditions could destabilize in the afternoon/evening otherwise
storms will remain sub-severe.

Extended Term: (Sunday through Thursday):

Sunday the upper level trough will swing through the Midwest
however, the cold front will have pushes east of the area and most
of the day should remain dry. However, dry conditions will be short-
lived. As we get into Sunday, the synoptic set-up become very
similar to the one we experienced early this week with a upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS and the local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to eject out from
the southwestern trough and move into the region late Sunday/Sunday
night sparking another round of convection. Conditions will remain
unsettled as we move into next week as several shortwaves eject out
from the slow moving southwestern trough, continuing thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A line of storms will move into the area between 07Z and 09Z,
although they should be weakening as they do. None-the-less there
will likely be temporary visibility and ceiling restricts as well as
gusty westerly winds. After this line moves through low MVFR ceilings
should spread over the area for the rest of the morning. These will
lift to VFR by the afternoon. However, the atmosphere will likely
become unstable again and as a result another round of storms is
possible.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ001>004-011>013-
     020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...CDB


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