Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 261732

1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

Issued at 404 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Today - Tonight: The remnants of a weak and elongated upper low
loosely spinning southwest over northern MO is progged to wander to
the northwest today/tonight. A pronounced upper ridge stretching
from the Desert Southwest through south central Canada will likely
limit its westward drift. Weak mid level vorticity maxima rotating
around the upper low will generate scattered/broken mid clouds over
the CWA but due to limited moisture it`ll be difficult to more than
isolated showers. Operational models as well as the short range HRRR
and LSX WRF models all generate pockets of qpf over the CWA so will
allow for slight chance PoPs over parts of the CWA. Given no
discernible change in h8 temperatures believe persistence is best
guide on temperatures.

Saturday - Monday: Operational models continue to support a dry
period as the aforementioned upper ridge shifts east into the
Midwest. This is in response to a deep upper low over the
intermountain region which opens up and lifts northeastward into the
Northern and Central High Plains. The closed upper low currently
over northern MO will likely not play a part in any discernible
weather for us as it wobbles through MN and IA on Saturday and
Sunday. As for temperatures, will again go with persistence as h8
temperatures remain near +14C/15C area.

Tuesday - Thursday: A significant shift in the pattern will bring an
increasing chance for rain starting as early as Tuesday night and
lasting through the end of this forecast period. The medium range
models are in reasonably good agreement for the start of this period
as the initial shortwave trough lifts northeast through the Northern
and Central Plains. A general broadening of the upper trough from
the western states through the central U.S. will gradually shift
cooler and more unsettled weather eastward. Some model differences
crop up in handling a weak frontal boundary that the models stall
over the Plains as the initial shortwave trough lifts into south
central Canada. While the PoPs may be a tad too generous initially
believe as falling heights spread eastward by mid-week we should see
showers and a few thunderstorms become more common. Will allow for a
gradual fall in daily temperatures but with medium confidence as
degree of cloud cover and rain-cooled air could result in even
cooler temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

VFR conditions expected through the fcst cycle with large scale upper
low aloft. With this feature in place...cannot totally rule out a few
isolated shwrs and possibly a thunderstorm during the overnight period.
Confidence at this point however remains to low to include with
current update. Winds to remain from the south and southeast between
5-10 kts through the period.




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