Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Issued at 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Pleasant late summer weather continues tonight and Monday as high
pressure slides across the area. Weak return southerly flow on the
back side of this feature will keep tonight`s temperatures a couple
of degrees warmer than last night, while highs on Monday rise into
the lower to middle 80s.

Moisture will be quick to return to the area on Tuesday when
dewpoints will return into the upper 60s and even lower 70s. This
will allow the airmass to destabilize by Tuesday afternoon with CAPE
values around 1000-2000 J/kg, setting the stage for scattered
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area during the afternoon
when a weak wave will pass to the north. Rain chances will continue
into Tuesday night and much of Wednesday before a cold front swings
through late Wednesday night. Precipitable water values will increase
to around 2 inches as the front approaches late Wednesday which
could allow for locally heavy rain. However the placement of the low-
level jet Tuesday night and Wednesday will likely put the heaviest
rainfall to our north across Iowa.

Models have trended slower with the movement of the front later this
week, keeping it stalled across the Ozarks Thursday then lifting it
back north Friday and Saturday. This will keep precipitation chances
going mainly across far southern portions of the forecast area
Thursday and then across much of the region Friday night and


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Scattered
cumulus is expected to develop by late morning, and around the same
time, south southeast winds will veer slightly to the south
southwest, increasing to 10 to 12 kts for the remainder of the day.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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