Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021714
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Water vapor imagery showing strong negatively tilted upper trough
spinning across the Southern High Plains this morning...with notable
dryslot now beginning to lift north through south-central Kansas.
Out ahead of the dryslot...area radars showing plenty of warm air
advection precipitation overspreading the region...with several
cracks of thunder heard here at the office. Models seem to be
handling the elevated instability quite well with BUFKIT profiles and
model MUCAPE planviews capturing a few hundred joules of CAPE as
incoming dry air is helping to generate convective instability.
Expect the thunder potential to continue through mid-morning before
elevated instability axis lifts north of the area.

For the remainder of today...expect a gradual drying trend from
south to north this morning as aforementioned dryslot moves through
the region. As this occurs...expect a fair amount of diurnal heating
as low-level lapse rates steepen and mixing commences. Across the KC
area...high temps will likely warm into the middle 50s...with low 60s
possible along and south of a Butler-Sedalia-Boonville line. As a
result...the majority of precipitation that falls today will be in
the form of rain...with a RA/SN mix possible across the far northwest
where little to no accumulation is expected. Strong mixing will also
lead to a breezy conditions with southwest winds of 20-25 mph
likely through peak heating.

Sfc low to finally eject north of the area later tonight with wrap
around moisture expected to quickly move through during the overnight
hrs. Falling temps in developing cold air advection will allow for a
RA/SN mix...and eventfully all SN for much of the area. Any
accumulations will be minor as best moisture and forcing by this time
will be far removed from the area. Cannot rule out a quick dusting
for parts of the KC area...however that should be all she wrote.

Coolest day of the week expected on Wednesday as brisk northwest flow
prevails much of the day. Temperatures will range from the upper 20s
up north...to mid 30s across the far southern zones. Beyond
this...fcst models in excellent agreement that the Lwr Missouri Vly
will see a gradual warming trend with dry conditions prevailing
through the upcoming weekend. High temps by Sunday could once again
be in the lower to middle 50s as split flow develops over the the
Lower 48. Don`t look now but GFS and ECMWF show a potential major
cool down early next week as strong Arctic high pressure builds
south across the Plains following the passage of cold front next
Monday. From this vantage point...subzero overnight lows look
possible for some areas if current model trends come to reality.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon hours with
increased winds out of the south gusting to around 25kts. Additional
precipitation is expected along the backside of a storm system
tonight as it exits the area to the east. Will likely take the form
of a wintry mix, with the greatest chances of development over NW
Missouri. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during this time and
linger through much of Wednesday morning. Strong winds will also
persist as they turn northwesterly through the end of the period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...Welsh


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