Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 222054
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
254 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south.
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to
deepen over central MO.

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift
into central TX this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface
low in central to eastern MO; however, the second system that will
drop southeast out of the northern Plains on Sunday has sped up
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 C, but a
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area.

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs
dig into the central CONUS and reinforce northwest flow over the
CWA. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures look like they`ll start to gradually recover beyond the
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the
central CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IFR to very low-end MVFR stratus will continue to park over the
region through the length of the TAF period, generally with ceilings
between 500-1000 ft this afternoon and between 300-700 ft overnight.
Fog will remain light or dissipate at most sites this afternoon, but
may redevelop tonight, especially across northern MO (including KSTJ)
after 03z. Winds will remain out of the south southwest at 12 to 18
kts this afternoon, then should decrease to around 5 to 8 kts during
the night. Little to no improvement in ceilings is expected Sunday
until beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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