Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 260850
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015
Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015
Severe convective system is clearing the area this morning with a
large area of stratiform rain trailing behind it, which could lead
to MCV development over central MO later this morning. Cold front
still is lagging behind this system across northern MO, and with a
low-level jet nosing into the area it`s conceivable that a few more
storms could pop up this morning until the front comes through.
However, airmass behind this large convective system has likely
stabilized significantly, and any MCV development over central MO
would likely bring subsidence on its western flank, so additional
widespread storms appear unlikely. Still, given all the rain that
fell Thursday and overnight we will go ahead and keep the flash flood
watch going for the morning hours until the front swings through.
Northwesterly upper flow and high pressure building in behind today`s
front will keep things dry tonight through Saturday night with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80. Another cold front will track into the
region on Sunday and could be accompanied by some strong storms given
modest shear in place. Progressive nature of the front should prevent
widespread flooding concerns although locally heavy rainfall is
certainly a possibility.
Another high pressure system behind Sunday`s front will keep the
beginning of the work week dry although temperatures will still stay
seasonably warm with highs in the mid 80s. Continued northwest flow
could bring additional storms into area by Wednesday and Thursday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain to impact the
terminals overnight. Main threat with these storms will be heavy
rainfall and flooding. Storms are developing over north central
Kansas and moving into northwest Missouri at this time and will begin
to approach KSTJ and KMCI around 08Z...then move east and south to
KMKC and KIXD. By around 12Z the storms will have moved east but a
lingering MVFR or IFR ceiling will likely persist until mid morning.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ025-057-
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ012>017-