Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 022317
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Deep nearly vertical cyclone with surface low centered over
northeast KS just northeast of CNK will lift northeast as it opens
up as a positively tilted trough overnight. We`ll soon say good-bye
to the warm sector and it`s early Spring-like temps as the associated
cold front barrels east this evening. Windy conditions will continue
south of the MO River until around sunset as a 40-50kt southwesterly
low-level jet shifts out of the CWA.

Some late afternoon/early evening convective showers over northwest
MO will give way to lower ceilings this evening. The extensive wrap
around stratus deck will be slow to exit the CWA tomorrow due to the
positive-tilted orientation of the departing trough. Inspection of
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings show some ice in the clouds later tonight so
can`t rule out pockets of flurries and snow showers with a dusting
possible here and there from any of the heavier snow showers.
Initially any precipitation would be rain till temperatures drop into
the middle 30s. Gusty northwest winds on the backside of the low will
diminish slowly from west to east late tonight.

Combo of the clouds and moderately strong cold air advection will
keep a lid on temperatures, likely not getting above freezing north
of the MO River. Gusty northwest winds will result in wind chills
in the teens and 20s.

The rest of the forecast through the weekend will be marked by a
couple of fast moving upper troughs alternating with a flattening
upper ridge between systems. Moisture looks to be lacking for much
more than clouds and trace type precipitation with the passing of
each wave. The first system could reach us as early as Friday
afternoon and the second and stronger system Sunday afternoon.
Overall, expect to see temperatures moderate into the 40s from
Thursday through Sunday. The second stronger upper trough will
likely drag down another batch of cold air from central Canada
leading to below normal temperatures next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 516 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

VFR CIGs are moving in across the terminals late this afternoon, but it
looks like low end MVFR CIGs will sweep in this evening as a compact
surface low shifts across the region. Surface winds will shift to the
northwest and likely remain a bit gusty overnight and through much of
Wednesday. Otherwise, expect cloud cover to linger through much of
Wednesday before clearing late in the afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Cutter


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