Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262132
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
432 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 432 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Convection got started early this morning in response to a little
vorticity max crossing a stalled front roughly along I-70, then the
low level jet kicked in and helped organize the early morning cells
into a progressive bow echo that moved across Missouri, roughly
along a line from St Joseph and Kansas City east-southeast through
Sedalia and Boonville. Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts, where noted along the path of the bow echo along
with some hail and wind reports, which will all factor into the
forecast for this evening. Otherwise, the bow echo has left behind a
significantly strong enough cold pool to push the stalled front from
I-70 south of the forecast region this afternoon, placing the
outflow boundary across Allen and Bourbon counties in Kansas just to
the southwest of our area, wrapping back up into the surface low
still located across central Kansas. This outflow boundary will be
the focus for more convection late this afternoon and evening.

Rest of the afternoon...Atmospheric recovery along the outflow
boundary, and points southwest, have returned into the 3000+ J/KG
range with effective southwest shear values of 40+ knots. This has
proven more than sufficient to result in severe thunderstorms just to
our west with convection starting to bubble up again in south
central Kansas along the dry line -extending south from the Wichita-
and also along the outflow boundary from Concordia, KS southeast to
Mound City, KS. However currently, steering winds up through 850mb
are from due south with 700mb winds south-southeast. As a result the
storms are lifting north-northeast so it will take till some time
for more than isolated thunderstorm activity to spread back across
our section of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As the parent
upper level trough lifts and pivots late tonight it will become
increasingly negatively tilted, allowing more cold air in aloft thus
keeping the atmosphere unstable well into the overnight hours. This
could help fuel storms late into the overnight hours, keeping the
severe potential going late into the night as the low level jet veers
over into northwest Missouri. As a result, severe weather is
favorable for both damaging winds and large hail along with isolated
tornadoes both early this evening and late tonight. Expect storms to
persist through much of the night with ongoing activity possibly
lingering through sunrise Wednesday. Additionally, heavy rain is
expected to accompany these storms, and given the rainfall this
morning -especially across northwestern Missouri and northeast
Kansas- we have issued a flash flood watch for tonight to cover areas
along the state line.

Speaking of Wednesday...morning activity should be lifting northeast
and then likely result in a break in convection by the late morning
hours. However, the parent upper level trough will be pivoting
across above northwest Missouri with cold air sliding in aloft.
Resulting steepening lapse rates and could result in some low topped
thunderstorms, particularly in northwest Missouri and adjacent areas
of northeast Kansas. However, working against these low topped
storms will be the fact that the parent low will push the jet axis
east putting the better shear to the east of where the low top
storms would be expected. But, this still leaves the possibility open
for low topped severe weather in areas near the Iowa border east and
southeast into northeast and central Missouri Wednesday afternoon.
Any stormy activity Wednesday will likely continue to the northeast
thus leaving the region storm free by Thursday.

Attention then turns towards the weekend as another trough exits the
Desert Southwest by moving northeast across the Plains States. This
trough currently looks to be trending just far enough south to take
the focus for severe weather and put it to our south. But, we could
still get plenty of storms starting again Friday and lasting through
at least Saturday with more storms possible into Sunday. We will
want to watch for flooding potential given the rainfall totals
expected this work week, but currently the sever threat for the
weekend looks low at this time.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR conditions have developed across the western Missouri terminals
late this morning into the early afternoon hours. The VFR conditions
will persist into the mid and late afternoon hours, but then another
round of thunderstorms is expected to develop in Kansas late this
afternoon, moving east into Missouri this evening. Current thoughts
are that the strongest storms will affect the terminals between 10 PM
and 1 AM. Storms could persist through the early morning hours before
they scatter out in the mid to late morning hours. Have only lowered
CIGs into the MVFR range, but might need to amend later as storms
develop and CIG height`s firm up.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MOZ001>004-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-
     044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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