Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162326

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
526 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 208 PM CST THU NOV 16 2017

Surface troughing taking form over the western High Plains today,
which has caused southeasterly winds in response to the gradient
increasing between the western trough and the surface ridge over
the Ohio River Valley, to the east of the region. Along with this
southerly low level flow moisture from the southern Plains and
the Gulf of Mexico region will stream into the area, providing
enough moisture to bring some low clouds and perhaps some drizzle
through the night on Friday. There will not be much in the way of
mid level support for ascent considering some weak mid level
ridging, but the isentropic component of the warm air advection
regime should be adequate to get some very light precipitation
during the overnight hours, into early Friday. The saturated layer
with this event will be rather thin, likely encompassing only the
lowest 5000-8000 feet. So while there could be some light rain,
the majority of the precipitation from this event will likely be
in the form of drizzle. After a somewhat soupy Friday, the mid
level ascent arrives in the form of a progressive shortwave
trough. This will likely organize the rain activity a bit through
the overnight hours on Friday night into more of an accumulating
precipitation event, with perhaps some thunder, given some
marginal elevated instability. Surface temperatures will be cool,
so this thunderstorm activity on Saturday morning would likely be
elevated in nature. A cold front moves through the area, bringing
falling temperatures through the day on Saturday and gusty
northwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. Currently the forecast
shows only a low in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday
morning as the rain moves out of the area, but some forecast
soundings taken from far northeast Missouri indicates some decent
lift in the dendritic growth layer with a fully sub-freezing
temperature profile and near freezing temperatures at the surface.
This would at least hint at the possibility of a few snowflakes
mixing into the liquid rain across far northern and northeastern
Missouri on Saturday morning. After the Saturday precipitation
moves out of the area, the forecast becomes dry for the remainder
of the weekend and next week. Next chance for rain could come late
next week, into next weekend, but models diverge quite a bit with
the solution of that time period.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST THU NOV 16 2017

Stratus has begun to develop as moisture surges northward ahead of
an approaching surface trough, and will continue to lift northward
ahead of the eastward-moving trough this evening. Have adjusted
timing of the midlevel stratus into the terminals up to around or
shortly after 00z, and the MVFR stratus to between 02z-04z at the
KC area terminals (03z-06z at KSTJ). Ceilings will progressively
lower as moisture builds in at lower levels overnight, and
eventually will be concerned about areas of drizzle/fog along and
ahead of the low-level warm front after midnight. Will continue to
update timing and persistence of the lowest cigs with the next TAF
issuance but do expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist through
the daytime hours Friday.




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