Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 101137

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Issued at 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms continue to make their way
across the forecast area thanks to the approaching upper level
shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front, now in
central MO. There may be a short break from the rain across much
of the area later this morning, as we lose some support from the
850 mb LLJ, however, on and off rain showers are possible for much
of the day due to the upper level shortwave moving directly
overhead as the day progresses. There is some elevated instability
available today (500-1000 J/kg), so we could hear some thunder,
but no severe weather is expected. This system and its rain should
exit the forecast area from the southwest to northeast leaving KC
and surrounding areas dry around 7 PM and areas around Kirksville
dry around 10 PM.

A surface high filtering in behind the front will usher in much
cooler air, aiding in the development of low level stratus clouds.
This all will keep high temperatures in west and west-central MO and
eastern KS in the upper 40s and low 50s today. Meanwhile, central MO
will approach the 60s since the surface low, which is advecting
warmer air north, is still in central MO. These highs will come
early in the day though, as the surface low (and warmer temps) will
be near the MO/IL border by the afternoon.

The surface high and upper level ridging will influence the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will begin their upward trend
Wednesday, despite low-level clouds hanging around for much of the
day. By Thursday, skies will clear and surface winds will shift to
the south, advecting even warmer temperatures into the area. And by
Friday, our area will be in the warm sector of an approaching
surface low, increasing high temperatures into the low 80s. This
system will also bring a chance for storms for the entire area, late
Friday through Sunday. Initially, the front will stall across
northern MO, providing storm chances all day Saturday. Then an upper
level shortwave trough will move across the Midwest Saturday into
Sunday, finally pushing the cold front through our area. Right now,
PWAT values will be around 1.5 (avg is about 0.75 this time of
year), so we could see some decent rainfall totals when all is said
and done. There is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF about
timing of the frontal passage and upper level shortwave, but in
general, both should exit the area by Sunday evening.

Behind the cold front, a surface high and upper level ridge will
bring in dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures for early
next week.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2017

MVFR ceilings have started making their way into the area, with
the entire forecast area expected to see these lower ceilings
within the next few hours. MVFR conditions should be around for
the remainder of the forecast period. An upper level shortwave
trough approaching the forecast area will provide chances for
showers today. Short-term models continue to suggest these showers
will be scattered in nature, therefore, have put a TEMPO in for
all terminals for the early afternoon. In addition, these showers
could also drop ceilings to around 900 ft and visibilities to
around 6 SM as they pass over. There also could be a few rumbles
of thunder, but don`t expect it to impact terminals. Showers
should exit the MO/KS border area around 22Z, and exit areas near
IRK around 03Z. Winds will be gusty for the first part of the TAF,
but as the surface low continues moving east, the pressure
gradient will relax, decreasing winds below 12 kts.




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