Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141748
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

While there are ongoing thunderstorms this morning, much of the
earlier activity has dissipated. Although tropicalesque moisture
continues to dominate much of the forecast area early this
morning, weak LLJ hasn`t been enhancing lift for recurrent
development like what was observed across northern/central MO last
night. Chances, albeit low, will persist for the southern
portions of the forecast area through midday as moisture/mid-
level convergence zone continues to sag southward. By later today,
much drier air aloft will have worked its way into much of the
forecast area, with the entire forecast area precip-free by this
evening, which will persist through the weekend and into early
next week.

High pressure wants to remain in control through at least the
first part of next week, with the question of whether or not
NW/northern MO will see precip by mid-week due to sitting on the
ridge`s periphery. Long range models are having difficulty
resolving and agreeing on solutions by the second half of next
week, with some indications that a front over IA may attempt to
mosey southward through the region, providing a potential focus
for the next storm chances. Confidence on precip chances for next
week are low at this time.

Given the uncertainty in precip chances and therefore cloud cover
in the area, have opted not to get too bullish on raising temps
for next week. Highs will likely reach well into the 90s by mid-
week with dewpoints on the rise as well. It will be hot and humid;
the question is just how hot it gets given the aforementioned
uncertainty on where the local region sits with respect to the
periphery of the ridge.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

The area of clouds from STJ southeast toward COU has been slowly
mixing out but there are still small areas of MVFR ceilings,
mainly near the MO River. All sites are expected to become VFR
within the next hour or two. We are seeing some small isolated
showers developing in central MO. More could develop as we
continue to move into the heat of the day. Some showers could have
embedded lightning as well. The entire forecast area is expected
to be dry overnight tonight. Only concern will be fog development
early tomorrow morning in western MO and eastern KS along and
north of I-70. Winds will be light and there will still be plenty
of low level moisture from recent rains supporting the
development. Have been conservative on visibility for this TAF
period but wouldn`t be surprised if some areas got down to at
least 2SM. Fog that develops should clear out by late morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Grana



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