Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 131127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
627 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Current mid-level satellite water vapor and 500mb RAP analysis
reveals a longwave trough across the Great Basin region. Through the
day today, a deepening upper low will dive southward into the base
of the longwave trough. The right exit region of a 500mb jet of near
60 to 70 knots will enter the South Plains today with convergence
aloft and mixing of winds towards the surface. Through the afternoon
hours, a surface lee cyclone will deepen across the Oklahoma
Panhandle with height falls giving way to breezy west southwest
winds. A 30 to 40 knot 850mb jet will setup across the southern
South Plains with a corridor of higher wind speeds and gusts. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for these windy conditions across the
southwest South Plains. Downsloping west southwest winds will also
give way to warm temperatures, especially off the Caprock with highs
nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the 80s. A few to scattered
high clouds may filter across the forecast area today, but overall
mostly sunny skies will be expected. Winds will begin to diminish
this evening as the surface low pushes east into the Central Plains.
Mild temperatures tonight with above normal lows in the upper 30s to
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Thursday, but
winds will decrease significantly as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes and the midlevel jet core shifts to our north. A slightly
cooler but still warm and dry day will result with light downslope
low level flow continuing ahead of a strong cold front taking shape
over the central plains states. Guidance is in good agreement
bringing this front southward through the forecast area on Thursday
evening bringing a period of strong northeast breezes given surface
pressure rises on the order of 4-6 mb/3-hr. Post-frontal cool and
moist advection will result in the gradual saturation of the 850-700
mb layer early Friday, with guidance also nearly universally
depicting a broad zone of isentropic lift persisting over the region
which is expected to result in scattered to numerous rain showers
through most of the day on Friday. Temperatures will also be quite
cool on Friday given limited insolation and a continuing easterly
upslope component, and have favored the cooler end of guidance for
highs Friday.

There is still high confidence in a fairly substantial rex block
developing over the western CONUS this weekend as a deep mid/upper
level low cuts off over the desert southwest. This blocking pattern
will remain in place late Friday through at least the middle of next
week resulting in a continuation of moist and unsettled southwesterly
flow aloft over West Texas. PWATs will remain relatively healthy
during this period (generally over 0.5"), which combined with a
persistent surface upslope component and a few modest midlevel
disturbances within the SW flow aloft should result in a series of
cool and mostly cloudy days. Precipitation chances are a bit more
uncertain, but there is enough ensemble consensus to maintain
mentionable PoPs across most of the forecast area each day Friday
through Monday with the highest chances of measurable precip on
the Caprock. A reinforcing cold front will even bring a chance of
a light rain/snow mix to portions of the region early Monday, but
at this point precip amounts throughout this event still look
relatively light with minimal impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions expected at all three sites through the TAF period.
West to southwest winds will ramp up this morning and afternoon
to around 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 to 35 knots possible.
Brief patchy blowing dust may be possible, mainly at LBB, this
afternoon with visibility likely to remain above 6 miles. Winds
will diminish around sunset with light winds through tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across the entire forecast area with dry, breezy and warm
conditions. Breezy west southwest surface winds of 20 to 30 mph with
higher gusts up to 35 mph possible. A pocket of higher wind speeds
around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the
southwest South Plains. A LLTR will setup with very warm above
normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s. The dryline across the
Rolling Plains will mix east through the day with very dry
conditions behind the boundary and minimum relative humidity values
as low as 8 to 10 percent area wide. Fuels continue to dry with ERCs
mostly in the 70th to 90th percentile. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect today from 11 am to 8 pm CDT.

Minimum RH values of 10 to 20 percent are also expected on Thursday,
but much lighter winds (sustained 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon)
will keep fire weather concerns low Thursday. A strong cold front
will then bring stronger northeast winds to the entire region
beginning Thursday evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11


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