Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232336
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR with any threat of TS staying well NW of the terminals
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...

Subtle changes continue across the forecast area this afternoon
which may allow a few showers or storms to move into part of the
area later this evening.  Aloft, the ridge continues to weaken which
is allowing mid-level moisture to increase across the area.  Water
vapor satellite imagery shows the eastern edge of subtropical
moisture is located midway across the forecast area along a
southwest to northeast line.  Mid-level clouds across the Texas
Panhandle on the visible satellite loop are drifting towards the
east which indicates mid-level flow may allow any storms that
develop across eastern New Mexico to drift into the area.  Forecast
soundings show that there will still be a weak cap in place but
shear profiles improve a bit later tonight that may be able to
sustain any activity  moving in from the higher terrain of New
Mexico.  Model QPF grids are pretty variable with the amount and
coverage of storms which complicates how high PoPs should be with
the GFS, NAM12, and HRRR the most aggressive, while the TTU-WRF,
ARW, and RAP have little to no precipitation.  Will continue a
mention of isolated showers and storms north and west of a Morton to
Silverton line which will be the area most likely to see storms if
they make it far enough east.  Severe weather is not expected but
inverted-V soundings indicate that there could be some gusty winds
around any storms that do develop.

There could be a few showers lingering across the area towards
sunrise tomorrow, especially if any outflow boundaries are across
the area or if we get any remnant circulations aloft from overnight
convection similar to the complex of storms over southern Kansas
currently.  The good news is the weakened ridge and increased
moisture should keep temperatures high temperatures tomorrow in the
low to mid 90s rather than the upper 90s to 101 range. Unfortunately
it appears that the ridge will strengthen a bit some and all models
are keeping any convection west and north of the forecast area
through tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Jordan

LONG TERM...

Not many changes were made to the forecast package in the long term.
POPs were backed off just slightly for Saturday night as most
solutions are trying to keep convection in eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle. Gulf moisture will return to the area thanks to an
easterly wave moving out of Mexico towards the Trans-Pecos region
towards the end of the weekend. Multiple short waves will serve as
the focus of convection both Sunday and Monday, possibly even
Tuesday. By then, the high pressure ridge will be building back over
the Four Corners, and by Wednesday, the ridge will begin to
steepen. Models are still mixed on how strongly the ridge will
build, but it could lend towards some favorable northwest flow by
the latter half of next week.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93


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