Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 252226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A TUCUMCARI...
FRIONA...TULIA...TO CLARENDON LINE AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY.  THIS HAS LEFT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS IN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING SOME AREAS REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF AROUND 2-3 MILLIBARS PER HOUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STATIONS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL ISSUE ONE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 9Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH AT TIMES. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT HOWEVER AND WILL ONLY CARRY A TRACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHER ISSUE WITH THE WIND SPEED WILL BE LOFTING OF THE
FINER SOIL PARTICLES RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. HARD TO
TELL HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE AND KEPT THEM GENERALLY AROUND
5-6 MILES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAPID SCAN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO SEE IF WE GET A
GLIMPSE OF ANY BLOWING DUST/HABOOB ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.

MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING SO THAT WE ARE AROUND 10
MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RETURN OF A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK SEWRD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THUS RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-
WEST AND ERN CONUS ON FRIDAY...TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST...THUS THE
WARM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE /HIGHS IN THE 70S/.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WRN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILST DE-AMPLIFYING.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
IS DESPITE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE
IS WARMEST ON SUNDAY...SO MUCH SO THAT IT HINTS AT LOWER 90S FOR
KLBB...WHICH COULD NEAR/TIE THE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET IN 2012.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT TREND...BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE
90S FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE
MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SAID DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...AS THERE REMAINS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL EXHIBITING
LOWERED TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S/ AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY REMAINS VALID ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93


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