Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A cold front had moved through the KCDS terminal shifting light
winds to the north. However, this front is expected to stop short
of the KPVW and KLBB terminals. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon but timing and
coverage is too uncertain at the moment to include any mention in
the TAF.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

Moist and unstable southwest flow continues today - 50 to 60 knots
of flow at the 300 millibar level will be overhead with a speed
max passing during the afternoon. Flow is currently streaming
overhead directly off Hurricane Norma, south of Baja, which is
expected to slowly weaken while steering north then northwest off
the Baja tip. Meanwhile, a weak outflow enhanced cold front was
sagging southward through the Panhandle and should manage
somewhere near our northwest zones before stalling out much of the
day - lifting back north later today. An unstable airmass will
result with more convective energy potential than yesterday along
with improved flow and shear. Stage will be set for potentially
strong or even a few severe hail or high wind producing
thunderstorms later today favoring but not limited to our north-
northwest zones. Activity should tend to wane overnight tonight,
though as in past several nights probably will still see storms
well into the evening if not even past midnight before dying out.
Warmth today should be a little more tempered than past several
days - but still bumped maximums slightly above blends given the
recent trend.

Mid and upper flow will veer Monday behind a wave ejecting out of
the currently low amplitude longwave trough over the
intermountain west. Moisture at all levels will thin dramatically,
that portion streaming off Norma will shunt to our south early to
mid week. Perhaps still enough lingering moisture over our
southeast corner to retain slight chance of thunder Tuesday
anyway. Warmer air also will be on tap with low level flow more
southwesterly. Tuesday in particular currently looks a warm day
where we have further boosted maximums above blends. May also yet
see enough of a breeze to consider at least elevated fire
potential. Fuels are dried in spots on the Caprock - not uniformly
dry to the best of our knowledge. A brief frontal intrusion
Wednesday may settle highs down a notch or two mainly in our

Moisture will still be to our south, and yet over northwest
Mexico, by Thursday as solutions agree the upper trough to our
west will sharpen markedly with potent Pacific energy digging
southeast. We should see improved moisture as early as Thursday,
enough for low thunder mention again. Approaching height falls
should kick in Friday or Saturday with deepening surface trough
and tightening dryline, near or even west of the New Mexico
border. Solutions differ on just how and when, but suggest a
Pacific-type cold front will edge into the surface trough next
weekend sometime and provide additional focus for thunder chances.
We have increased to solid chance thunder much of our area.




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