Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250923
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY
SO A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER WITH NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SURFACE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE RAPIDLY MIXING DOWN.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE TOLERABLE THAN OBSERVED ON FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO A MODEST INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY ADD
CONTOURS AS IT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY...THEN
WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL ARC OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A TREND TO BACK THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FURTHER
WEST LATE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EVEN ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY
EVENING. ADJUSTING TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDER MENTION EASTERN
AREAS...AND ADDED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO THIS SET OF
GRIDS FOR THIS AREA. SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW A FAIRLY MINIMAL SPREAD ON
THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALREADY EXISTED
AND WERE RETAINED. IN SPITE OF THE WELL-DEFINED NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND AMPLE BACKING IN ADVANCE...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING BULK OF LIFT EAST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERN TRACK MAY LIMIT EFFECTIVE PRECIPITATION RATES OUR AREA AT
LEAST. WE HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION TOTALS DOWN A NOTCH FOR AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK...WITH BEST TOTALS STILL FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE COLD LOW WILL STILL BE PASSING OUT OF EASTERN ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY AND MAY DRAW LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MORNING AT LEAST. WE HAVE TRIMMED TUESDAY MAXIMUMS A NOTCH.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES THAT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURE REBOUND THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. BULGING UPPER RIDGE
LATER IN THE WEEK ON-TRACK FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO FEATURE WEAK
FLOW OFF HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST...UNTIL PERHAPS LATE FRIDAY
WHEN WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE TO OUR WEST SPREAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. BUT BETTER FLOW THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING VALID
THUNDER MENTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES STILL LOOKS DELAYED UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY OR PERHAPS EVEN SUNDAY...SO NO THUNDER MENTION YET
IN FAR EXTENDED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME
MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES WILL BE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
GREATER THAN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FURTHERMORE...FUELS
HAVE UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT GREEN UP BUT SOME PATCHY CURED FUELS DO
REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  44 /   0   0  20  50
TULIA         81  49  79  47 /   0   0  20  40
PLAINVIEW     81  49  79  48 /   0   0  20  30
LEVELLAND     81  50  79  46 /   0   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       82  51  81  49 /   0   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   80  51  77  45 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    81  51  79  47 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     88  54  86  55 /   0   0  30  50
SPUR          83  53  84  52 /   0   0  20  40
ASPERMONT     86  55  86  55 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05


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