Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121945
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
245 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The temporary mid/upper level ridge in place will move off to the
east tonight ahead of a potent upper low situated in the desert
southwest causing 1000-500 mb thicknesses to drop gradually.
Overnight, a strong Lee surface low will form in the panhandle
region bringing W-SW surface winds to our CWA. A weakening cold
front will bring a northerly wind shift to the northern portions of
our CWA tonight, however, westerly surface winds will recover by
tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, as the surface low strengths and begins
to move into the central Plains, stronger southwesterly winds will
bring warm and dry conditions to the entire CWA with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Adding to the low RH values and ample dry
fuels already in place, critical fire conditions are expected for
the entire forecasting area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
Wednesday from 11 am to 7 pm CDT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

After the strong winds and fire weather on
Wednesday, expect a cooler but above normal day on Thursday. A
strong cold front will move through the region Thursday evening into
early Friday morning bringing breezy winds, moisture, and cooler
temperatures. An upper level rex block will develop Friday over the
Pacific coast bringing broad isentropic lift overhead. The lift in
combination with the moisture behind the front will bring chances of
rain starting Friday. Guidance differs on the amount of rain for
Friday. Confidence on the amount of rain on Friday is low as NBM has
rain on the wetter side but guidance seems to be drier. There is a
slight chance for some snowflakes mixed in with the rain early
Friday morning mostly over the Far Southern Texas Panhandle and
Northern South Plains but accumulation is not expected. The rex
block should stall over the Pacific coast continuing low chances of
rain and snow and cooler temperatures into early next week although
confidence is low as this will depend on the evolution of the cutoff
low just west of the region.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. W-SW winds
turn more S-SW this evening, then back to the W-SW Wednesday
morning. Winds will also increase during the day Wednesday,
likely becoming sustained around 22-26 kt through much of the
afternoon, bringing some cross-winds to (particularly N-S)
runways. Although this is outside of the 18Z TAF forecast, we did
hint at the increase in wind speed at the end of the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

On Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to be similar to today`s
highs. However, the main concern is the stronger SW winds, drier
air, and the continued drying of fuels. The strengthening surface
low across the Panhandle region will bring moderate backing winds as
our CWA will be behind the dryline. Winds are expected to be
sustained at 20-30 kts with the highest winds above 30 kts in the
western portion of our CWA. Wind gusts will also be elevated with
speeds above 30 kts for most of our CWA and 35-40 kts for western
counties. RH values between 10-15 percent will result in RFTI values
ranging from 3-6 with some areas in far northern and western
counties exceeding 7. Despite some green areas, many areas have dry
to very dry fuels aiding to the critical fire conditions expected
tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire CWA
on Wednesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...33


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