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FXUS64 KLUB 202342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55/24





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