Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
603 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR next 24 hours. Winds will become a bit on the gusty side late
this morning through the afternoon. Check density altitude - high
temps near 37C.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Today will be seasonably hot across the region with higher
dewpoints and thin high cloud cover helping to keep much of the
South and Rolling Plains from reaching triple digits, while the
extreme southwest Texas Panhandle should reach 100 degrees.
Increased southwest downslope surface flow will assist in raising
temperatures as we shift to more zonal flow, as the center of the
high pressure to our southwest gets pushed farther south. ECMWF has
been consistent indicating slightly more in the way of height falls
aloft, and weak surface convergence setting up along the TX/NM state
line, by early afternoon. Thermal profiles with much of the
operational guidance is too hot to support any initiation anywhere
in our area, but decided to add a slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms across our southwest counties, in case the 30+C values
at H85 are overdone.

Thursday continues to be the peak of the heat through the forecast
period as breezy west-southwesterly afternoon winds and a
cloudless sky lead to triple digit heat for most of our area.
Strong consensus continues, for the early Friday morning frontal
passage, that will be dry as it pushes south out of the Texas
Panhandle and through our CWA by noon Friday. Highs on Friday will
cool by 10 or more degrees from the day before.

The cold front early Friday will stall in the vicinity of the I20
corridor. Despite the FROPA, Gulf moisture recovery will remain
mostly unimpeded. Surface pressure falls across SE NM, along with
increased omega timing well with a mid-level shortwave, will lead to
chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday evening
into early Saturday. With rain chances tapering off early Saturday,
the rest of the day will provide enough time for dewpoints to
recover back into the 50s and 60s. The stalled/lingering front
begins to lift and pull east as the deeper synoptic trough exits to
the northeast. This will also allow for a strengthening low-level
jet to potentially lead to even more widespread showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into early Sunday. Severe potential for
either round of convection will be low with wind gusts looking to be
the most likely candidate to even come close. Precip chances
continue into late Sunday and the new the work week as the upper
level shortwave pattern continues on the east side of weak ridging
across the southwest.




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