Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 260933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
433 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL
PROVIDE STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A CLOSED LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH VIGOROUS HEIGHT FALLS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY THIS
AFTERNOON LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE FA. WITH THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK FORMING A DRYLINE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY THE LOW
LEVEL FORCING FROM THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE.

AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SINCE THE
CAPROCK WILL REMAIN IN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...STRONG DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE VIRGA BOMBS.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE VERY LIKELY WITH MUCH
GREATER CHANCES FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE VIRGA THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BECOMING UNCAPPED BY MID AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE LACKING NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. GOOD TURNING AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. ANY
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY
HAVE A LITTLE MORE ENCOURAGEMENT OF TORNADOGENESIS DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...
A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CONTOUR UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY MONDAY WITH INITIAL ENERGY SURGE PULLING
LOW A BIT NORTHEAST...BUT SHOULD REFORM AND WOBBLE BACK SOUTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOLUTIONS HAVE RE-CORRECTED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE VIA THIS
WOBBLE. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS BORDER AND EJECTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY MODIFIED
DESERT SOUTHWEST AIRMASS WITH SLOW WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY WILL
UNDERGO COLLAPSE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUCCESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE
PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY...BUT MAY NOT LEAD TO MEANINGFUL THUNDER
CHANCES AGAIN UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

ATTENTION WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSING EARLY MONDAY SHOULD LIFT AND THEN
REPLACE THE MILD AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AND MAY INITIATE THUNDER EARLY TO MIDDAY WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALOFT
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE INITIAL ENERGY LOBE MOVES EAST OR
NORTHEAST...AGAIN EARLY IN THE DAY. BULK SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL
OUR AREA...BUT COULD STILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAY PEAK FURTHER NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE MONDAY WE
EXPECT ENOUGH SATURATION WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
TO JUSTIFY MODERATELY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY A CHILLY MOIST AIRMASS IN LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH WITH ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND WEAK
LIFT TO SUPPORT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS...OR DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THAT PERIOD NOT LIKELY TO BE HIGH...BUT
SOME AREAS OF PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
MODEST TOTALS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE FAVORING EASTERN
ZONES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A COOL
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SINCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM A BIT MORE SOLID TONIGHT...WE
INCHED PROBABILITIES MONDAY A LITTLE HIGHER INTO SOUTHERN ZONES.
COMPLEXITY OF HOW UPPER LOW WOBBLES THROUGH PRECLUDES AN ATTEMPT
TO BE MORE TIME AND AREA SPECIFIC WITH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HOWEVER. MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  44  54  35 /  20  50  60  40
TULIA         78  47  55  37 /  20  40  60  50
PLAINVIEW     79  48  55  38 /  20  40  60  50
LEVELLAND     78  46  58  39 /  20  20  60  40
LUBBOCK       81  48  58  39 /  10  30  60  40
DENVER CITY   77  45  63  40 /  10  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  47  63  41 /  10  20  50  30
CHILDRESS     82  55  57  46 /  30  50  70  60
SPUR          83  53  65  43 /  20  40  60  50
ASPERMONT     85  56  68  45 /  20  40  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.