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000
FXUS64 KLUB 302354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
654 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A LOW CLOUD THREAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
PERSISTENT POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK OVER THE PNHDL WILL ADVECT
SOUTH THIS EVENING AND FILL IN QUICKEST AT KCDS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT
BOTH TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOWN BY MODELS WENT WITH MORE PESSIMISTIC IFR CIG AT KLBB TOWARD
DAYBREAK GIVEN QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FCST AREA...NEAR A
TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE AT 19Z WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ROUGHLY FROM TULIA TO DENVER CITY. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS WHETHER PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH THE NIGHT. ATTM POST-FRONTAL
CUMULUS IS LOOKING QUITE FLAT...WHICH GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT
BEHIND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO WRN OKLAHOMA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MAYBE SHOULD NOT BE THAT SURPRISED. THE NEXT
TROUGH UPSTREAM APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...AND ANY AFFECT
FROM THAT LIKELY TO BE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING WEST TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS MOVING INTO UNSTABLE AIR WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S
AND DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60F...BUT SUBSIDENCE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. SOME SLIGHTLY MORE PERTURBED CUMULUS ACROSS THE ERN ZONES
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT DUE TO ABOVE REASONING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH LOOKING
MORE UNLIKELY. WILL LOWER EVENING POPS A LITTLE BIT AS A
RESULT...INTO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH BUT HOLDING ONTO CHANCE
POPS SOUTH. COULD SEE A LITTLE OF THE NM HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION TRY
TO WORK TOWARD THE SWRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES SEWD THROUGH NM...BUT AIR MASS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO
WILL BE INCREASINGLY STABLE AND WINDS UNFAVORABLY FROM A NORTH TO NE
DIRECTION. LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FCST
AREA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AND EAST...AND WITHOUT MEANINGFUL
LIFT EVIDENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TWEAK OVERNIGHT POPS DOWNWARD.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE QUITE PLEASANT. STABLE AND DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA. DAY MAY START WITH LOW CLOUDS AS LOW MOISTURE
LINGERS OFF THE DECK...BUT INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTN HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM DURING COOL REGIMES
THIS WARM SEASON AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS AIR MASS...EXPECT
THAT IT IS SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK EAST FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES COAST AS TROUGHINESS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE
SUMMERTIME REGIME FOR STORMS MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS FROM OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS COME
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR THE STATE LINE THURSDAY EVENING AS GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTS NORTHWARD AS WINDS VEER ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SURFACE
RIDGING. A MINOR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE
SURGE STILL LOOKS AS IT MAY ATTEMPT TO SKIRT THE REGION COME EARLY
SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS GOING FOR NOW ACROSS WESTERN
REACHES OF THE CAPROCK GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE IN
PLACE.

EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGING WILL VEER
WINDS ALOFT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME DEGREE OF
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS LOOKS TO HOLD THIS
RIDGE IN CHECK...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR ONLY A SLOW WARMUP TO NEAR
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 80S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S/MID 60S LOW 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  77  60  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
TULIA         61  76  60  83  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     62  77  61  84  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  79  62  85  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       63  79  64  85  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  79  62  86  63 /  30  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    63  80  64  86  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  79  64  87  66 /  30  10   0  10  10
SPUR          64  82  64  87  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  83  66  88  67 /  30  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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