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000
FXUS64 KLUB 250530
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate this morning with
MVFR Ceilings developing, then dropping to IFR at times by 13 UTC
or so. Coverage of rain showers will also be on the increase, but
TSRA are expected to remain isolated and may not impact any of the
terminals. Ceilings are expected to rise some this afternoon, but
confidence is low whether or not there will be a return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Ceilings will lower to MVFR at all terminals later tonight, with
perhaps brief IFR decks at times by Mon morning. Should see a
larger area of rain with some TS impact the sites after midnight,
with low CIGs persisting through much/all of the daytime.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain and flooding concerns continue to highlight the
forecast for the coming week.

Currently experiencing a break in rainfall across our CWA as
cloud cover remained in place limiting daytime heating and
instability that could have resulted in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The first strong shortwave ejected NE early this
morning with the next strong wave pushing through overnight when the
heavier rains are expected to begin in earnest, especially across
the eastern half of our area. Surface cold front pushes through from
late tomorrow evening into early Tuesday while the secondary trough
deepens and sharpens a strong shortwave buckling across New Mexico.
The ECMWF would position the heaviest rainfall farther south closer
to the I20 corridor with a more positively tilted trough than the
GFS, with the GFS drawing more moisture and rainfall across our CWA.
A small shift in these features north or south could result in a big
difference in total rainfall realized across our forecast area.

Nonetheless, the WPC continues to paint a wide swath of heavy
rainfall across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle with up to 5"
inches across our northwest zones and up to 10" along the southern
Rolling Plains with some localized totals potentially exceeding
those amounts. If the ECMWF is correct, we may begin to see some
relief from the deluge by late in the week as drier air pushes
southward out of the Rockies while the GFS would keep the water
spout open into the weekend. Temperatures will drop with all the
rain and cloud cover primarily into the upper 60s and low 70s once
the front pushes through for Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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