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000
FXUS64 KLUB 222016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29