Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260512
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Low-level moisture will continue to increase across the region
through early Sunday. This will result in few/sct low clouds
developing during the early morning hours with the best chance
at/near KLBB terminal. In fact, MFVR ceilings may occur for a
couple of hours at KLBB around daybreak. SHRA/TSRA chances will
increase during the day on Sunday, but pinning down exactly when
and where it will occur is a challenge at this point. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level low spinning its way out of Mexico this afternoon is
hard to miss on water vapor imagery, as it`s diverting monsoonal
moisture well into the northern Central Plains. This system has also
traveled far enough east and northward, just crossing the Rio Grande
this afternoon, that it is finally dragging in Gulf moisture across
south and central Texas as evidenced by cloud cover on visible
satellite. Mostly pancake cumulus have developed across the
southeastern half of the South Plains and into the Rolling Plains
early this afternoon. Convection had already developed around noon
across the mountains of NM along the monsoonal moisture plume and
was ever so slowly moving eastward. For today, high pressure to
the east and the low to the south will work in tandem to quash
rain chances. Tonight, storms will move closer to the forecast
area, and it`s possible a few storms may continue out of NM into
the northwest corner of the forecast area.

Clouds look to expand across the South and Rolling Plains in the
morning with the increase in low- and mid-level moisture. Left over
clouds from overnight convection should take care of the rest of the
South Plains and southern TX Panhandle. Therefore, with increased
moisture and cloud cover tomorrow, highs, especially on the Caprock,
look to be a few degrees cooler than today. The high pressure center
also takes a jog east into the ArkLaTex, helping with those
temperatures, too. Models are being a little stingy on the rainfall
chances for tomorrow, though. The GFS is by far the most generous,
while others like the NAM...usually one to precipitate on a
dime...keeps us dry. Therefore, backed POPs off a bit from the last
forecast package, but still included at least slight chance for most
of the area as the UA low should be close enough and moisture should
be sufficient enough for at least some areas to see a little
rainfall.

LONG TERM...
Monday continues in some ways to resemble Sunday, in terms of
having an increase in available deep moisture and at least some
of the remnants of the old upper low still to our south, although
solutions agree this low will continue to fill and then dip back
to the south late Monday, hence more out of the picture. Solutions
also not particularly agreeable on widespread precipitation
chances, and if upper heights were to build any further it would
be difficult to maintain any mention until late Monday when an
outflow enhanced frontal boundary is expected to edge south from
the Texas Panhandle. This will at least increase the chances for
thunder, though heights aloft will be wavering very near that
go/no go point so confidence not super high. But, we have accepted
the current Superblend showing at least modest chances for thunder
drifting south with that boundary Monday night and Tuesday. By
late Tuesday and Wednesday the boundary is still expected to wash
out with returning southerly flow and also the mid levels drying
as upper ridging should extend notably over us, although not as
strong as last weeks ridge per the discussion from the overnight
shift. So, Wednesday into early Thursday favor dry and warming
back to around normals or a touch above.

No changes really to late Thursday into Friday and Saturday as we
will remain just north of the upper ridge axis, but enough in the
northwesterly flow aloft to be on the fringe of a series of
convectively enhanced impulses emerging off the Front Range each
day, thus better chances for thunder will continue to favor our
northern zones during this period. By late next weekend, our
current solution choices disagree how much Pacific wave energy
will impact the northwest coast, thus the extent of ridging over
the southern plains. We`ll play wait and see for now in the
farthest part of the extended. RMcQueen
&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

02



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