Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 270038
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
838 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through the end of the
week. Low pressure may affect the region Memorial Day through
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
It`s a warm evening tonight with temps slowly dropping into the
upper 70s/low 80s. Scattered showers are moving across the Blue
Ridge region and will slowly dissapate as they move eastward.
An isolated shower is still possible across the
Baltimore/Washington metro. Clearing and patchy fog are expected
overnight. Low temperatures will drop into the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Additional height rises and building sfc high pressure Fri and
Sat will tend to limit t-storm coverage Fri and Sat, but heat and
instability will build each day with still a risk of pop-up
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation chances will increase Sunday heading into next week
as the rain pushes north from a developing low pressure system
impacting the southeast US coast. Leeward trough sets up Monday
and as the upper level energy associated with the system to the
south nudges north, should expect to see enhancement in the rain
across the Mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. Exact placement of the
heavier banding of rain still uncertain as the GFS tracks further
west than the ECWMF. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will
be cooler than this week`s temps, though still upper 70s to lower
80s.

Models continue to diverge on the solution heading into the middle
of the week concerning the placement of the aforementioned low
pressure system. General consensus does indicate a slow approaching
cold front from the northwest during this time, with ridging
building in aloft holding the front to the north of the area. How
strong the ridge is and thus how far the front makes it will be
questions to be watching over the next few days. Will continue to
mention the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with on
going moisture advection south of the frontal boundary. The extent
of the precipitation will also impact temps, holding highs in the
70s for now and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions expected tonight however patchy light
fog is expected overnight. Some reduction in vsby is possible
mainly at mrb/cho/iad into Friday morning. Prevailing VFR
conditions expected Friday into Saturday. -SHRA/VCTS expected
Friday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day Sunday
through Wednesday, with the highest confidence attm of Sunday
night into Monday. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible during that
time and depending on the intensity of the rain, possible IFR
conditions. Winds generally on the lighter side less than 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly channeling expected tonight. Gusts up to 20 kts
expected on the lower Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay south of
drum point tonight. Winds should subside after 2am tonight.

Sub SCA conditions through Sat, but winds and waves higher near
thunderstorms.

Latest forecast showing sub-SCA conditions on all waters Sunday-
Wednesday. Depending on the track of low impacting the southeast US
early next week, could see increased winds on the waters. Also, the
potential of thunderstorms each day during the time brings the
chance for increased winds.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/HAS/LFR



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