Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 051445
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTS EAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10
AM. PATCHES OF FOG STILL NOTICABLE VIA 14Z OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT...BUT VIS 3 MILES OR GREATER.

14Z VIS SAT SHOWS CENTER OF SFC LOW OVER TN/KY...SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
RADAR REFLECTIVITY...WITH PCPN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTN. THE PCPN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SCT-NUM SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING PWATS...SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BRING HEAVIER RAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AS
UPR LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. LIMITED INSTABILITY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK...THOUGH IT IS NOT
OFFICIALLY ONE IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING
FROM IT COULD LINGER INTO TUE IF THE LOW IS SLOW...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THAT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE MINIMIZED POPS FOR TUE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WED...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON WED WITH THAT. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THU THRU SAT...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY STAGNANT THRU THE
PERIOD...ONLY WAVERING A FEW DEGREES FROM DAY TO DAY. TYPICAL JULY
WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH VIS NOW 3-5 MILES
DUE TO LINGERING FOG. CIGS ALL OVER...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR.
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16-18Z WITH WARMING. FOG
SHOULD ALL BE DISSIPATED BY 16/17Z AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THIS AFTN. CHC TSTM AT KCHO/KMRB COULD BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES...WHICH WILL BRING YET
AGAIN A CHC OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO AVIATION CONCERNS TUE THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
LIGHT...BELOW 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ELY FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM PA. SELY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT...SHIFTING S MONDAY. SLY CHANNELING POSSIBLE BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SRN MD WATER SCA
TOWARD MONDAY EVENING.

OTHER THAN TSTMS...NO MARINE CONCERNS TUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...SEARS/CAS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS


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