Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 291848
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
248 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES RMNS OVR THE AREA. PRNSTLY CU FORMING OVR THE MTNS...LOW
CHCS THAT ANY OF THESE WL FORM INTO A SHWR/TSTM. OVRNGT NOT QUITE
AS COOL AS THE PRVS FEW NGTS W/ LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT L70S IN THE
CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. LGT FOG MAY FORM IN THE CENTRAL SHEN
VLLY AFTR MDNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

TMRW SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY - HIGH PRES RMNS OVR THE AREA. HIGHS
85-90. A LTL BETTER CHC OF RW/TRW TMRW...ESPECIALLY OVR THE
MTNS...BUT AT THIS TIME OF YR UPR LVL WIND FIELD IS GNRLY PRETTY
LGT...AS IS THE CASE SUNDAY. HENCE SVR THREAT IS NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM INVOF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE THE WEAKNESS FOR THE CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN RESIDING ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO LIFT NE. WHILE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING...HAD TO CONTINUE LOW END POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH
LOWER 70S E OF I-95.

THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT THE TROUGH SHOULD
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS...SHEARING
OUT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THE
MINIMUM...MONDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY INTERRUPTION TO OUR HIGH
PRESSURE-DOMINATED WEATHER PATTERN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE POOR...BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS
FEATURE. ALSO SHADED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.

LATE SUMMER PATTERN RESUMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND IF
ANYTHING...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL MEAN RISING TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY AREAS NEAR OR
ABOVE 90 FOR HIGHS. WITHOUT A PROMINENT TRIGGER PRESENT AND POOR MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

TUE NGT-SAT: HIGH PRES WILL MOSTLY DOMINATE CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR AREA. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS OUR CWA DRIER THAN THE
12Z GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING PRECIP OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA
NEXT SAT. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE EACH DAY BUT MAJORITY OF TIME WL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL
BE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR ERLY SEPT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND SUN. LGT FOG IS PSBL AT CHO/MRB.

UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWER SHOULD BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY REPRESENT THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
MORNING BR AT MRB/CHO AS SKIES CLEAR. ANY DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON LIKELY STAY WEST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES MAJORITY OF NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE MAY BE A PD THIS EVE WHEN SRLY CHANNELING WL PUSH WINDS INTO
THE UPR TEENS. IF SO A 3 HR MWS OR SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE BAY.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUNDAY EVENING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
HAVE LIMITED FORECAST TO 15 KT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
WESTERLY FLOW 5-10 KT MONDAY WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REESTABLISHED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR



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