Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

000
FXUS61 KLWX 260106
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move into the outlook area this
evening and stall just south of the area overnight and Sunday
before returning north as a warm front on Monday. Another cold
front will cross the area late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A backdoor cold front is located across Central PA this evening.
High pressure south of Hudson Bay will move to the southeast and
into northern New England tonight. This will help push the cold
front southward into the Mid-Atlantic resulting in an airmass
change Sunday morning. E-NE winds will usher in cool and damp
conditions from north to south Sunday morning resulting in a
much different day from today.

Iso-sct showers are possible overnight as a moist airmass stays
in place and backdoor cold front moves southward. Clouds will
increase and lower this evening mainly from north to south.
Light rain and patchy drizzle are possible Sunday as the
boundary layer moistens. Much cooler conditions expected across
much of the outlook area Sunday. Temps will range from the 40s
across northeast MD to the low-mid 60s across the Central
VA. There is uncertainty in the temperature forecast for Sunday
as the backdoor cold front will dictate the high temperatures.

Prev discussion...
Much better chance for showers Sun night in area of strong
surface and moisture convergence and warm air overrunning cool
surface air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Front lifts north as a warm front Mon afternoon with
temperatures rising back into the 70s. Area will be in a light
westerly downslope flow leading to some clearing. Risk of
showers increases again late Mon night and Tue as low pressure
and associated cdfnt crosses the area. Enough instability is
also present on Tue for a risk of t-storms. Drying expected late
Tue night behind fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Front approaches from the west on Tuesday with showers and
thunderstorms possible. Conditions should start drying out early
on Wednesday as high pressure builds over our region. Dry
conditions continue into Thursday before a wave of low pressure
moves through the Mid- Atlantic increasing PoPs Thursday night
and into Friday. Another low pressure moves east towards the
Mid- Atlantic Friday night into Saturday keeping rainy
conditions over our region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cigs will drop this evening and become IFR across the terminals
except KCHO by Sunday morning. Cigs will remain low Sunday. Cigs
may lift to MVFR Sunday afternoon but confidence is low and cigs
may stay IFR through the day. Cigs will drop to IFR/LIFR Sunday
night. Winds become E-NE tonight and Sunday. Showers expected
Sun night everywhere.

Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return
Wednesday into Thursday. Sub-VFR periods possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night, then VFR Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will strengthen across the upper Chesapeake Bay
late this evening behind backdoor front. Winds remain gusty
across the nrn waters and upper Potomac river through Sun. Winds
then increase again Sun night across the southern waters with
SCA Mon and Mon night.

Cold front approaches on Tuesday, then dry conditions return
Wednesday into Thursday. Winds are expected to remain below the
small craft advisory threshold.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>532-535-
     538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ533-
     536-541-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HSK/IMR/LFR
MARINE...HSK/IMR/LFR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.