Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 151832
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
232 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
OCCUR WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND BRIEF. PRECIPITTION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE A SHOWER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND A NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...DESPITE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BE WEAK AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR NOW
SINCE COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MOISTURE...WE HAVE POPS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
PICTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY. FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP IT
LIMITED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK SO
IT WILL HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO INCREASE TO NEAR ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM ANNE ARUNDEL TO ST MARYS
COUNTIES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...PRIMARILY FOR SENSATIVE AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
ANOMALIES FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING NEAR BALTIMORE ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL AS WASHINGTON DC
AND ALEXANDRIA ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ014-017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL







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