Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 041903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL DIG TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND SRN
MID ATLC STATES BY THU AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
EVENING AND SFC CONVERGENCE INCREASES...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE
ESTABLISHING FROM PETERSBURG WV SOUTHEAST TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
ESTABLISHING TONIGHT AND REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH ALL DAY
THURSDAY. GFS RAINFALL TOTALS SEEM OVERDONE WHEN COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THAT
AREA. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE A PROLONGED AND SLOW EVENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT A THREAT BUT RISES ON SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SFC CONVERGENCE
ZONE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD TOWARD DC/BALT METRO AREAS FOCUSING
SHOWERS MORE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPR LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY SAT... KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND PARTLY
CLOUDY... MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING PSBL
AS UPR LOW MOVES AWAY... BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS
NEAR OUR REGION SUN INTO LATE MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED BRINGING BACK SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE
UPR 70S DURING THIS PERIOD... LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...
40S SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS UPR LEVEL LOW
AND COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER ON SUN AND INTO MON AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND MON AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW THE
SCA CRITERIA. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON SUN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESULTED ON ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS RISING WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AT MANY
COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT STRAITS POINT AND ANNAPOLIS IF
THE HIGHER ESTOFS SURGE VERIFIES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR


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