Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 231841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND
LINGER TO THE EAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH A INCREASING
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLOTTED A HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
DIRECTLY OVER VIRGINIA AT PRESENT...WITH A STORM SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS TO DOMINATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN
NORMAL THANKS TO THE FRESH CANADIAN AIR MASS WHICH THE HIGH
BROUGHT WITH IT. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE ORIGINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH WARMTH AND MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT...BUT REALLY
GETTING UNDERWAY ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WHILE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING AND BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE `HUMID` RANGE
JUST YET. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BECOME NOTICEABLE BUT
NOTHING PARTICULARLY BREEZY IS EXPECTED INLAND THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN DC/BALTIMORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MAIN
PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL BE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CU FIELD ALONG THE
RIDGES AND CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER.

THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RIDE ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO
REACH NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL APPROACH 90 WITH A WARM
AND STICKY NIGHT IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO START THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT MRB...CHO AND IAD TERMINALS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS
TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...A SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE WHICH WILL CHANNEL UP CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS...SO AN ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN WATERS IN OUR RESPONSIBILITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NOTE THAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY EXPAND ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OFF THE EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/RCM/KLW
MARINE...HAS/RCM/KLW


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