Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 252030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE AN UPPER TROF/SURFACE LOW ENCROACH ON THE AREA IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE UPPER TROF WILL PASS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THE LOW WILL YET AGAIN TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE KEEPING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP OUT OF
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...STILL A CHANCE SOME OF THE PRECIP BLEEDS INTO
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY A TRANSITION FROM A ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION...WITH WISCONSIN
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFIED FEATURES IN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH SURFACE LOW AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...AS A
SECONDARY SHORT DROPS SE ALONG THE MN/IA/WI BORDER REGION. MOST
MODELS END SPOTTY PCPN WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE BY 00Z SATURDAY
...HOWEVER WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW UNTIL 06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ELEVATED
CAPE. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BUT NOT A HUGE DROP IN 925-850 MB TEMPS
SO MID-50S LOWS LOOK GOOD.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRY SATURDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE NOSING
OVER AREA. DRY AIR SHOULD RESPOND WELL TO DAYTIME HEATING WITH UPPER
70S FOR HIGHS...THOUGH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE EAST
COOLER.

12Z NAM MORE OPEN..AND QUICKER...WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH A LEAD
VORT MAX GENERATING SCATTERED PCPN AS EARLY AS 03Z SUNDAY OVER S
CNTRL WI...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z GFS DOES BRING THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WITH
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING AREA DRY. FOLLOWED CONSENSUS POPS AND
KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO UP
POPS IN THE WEST PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY IF LATER RUNS FOLLOW THE WETTER
TREND.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO CATCH UP TO THE FASTER NAM...BRINGING PCPN
INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND IT/S EVOLUTION INTO A CLOSED LOW...WHICH
LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN CONFIGURATION OF SURFACE LOW...RESULT IN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. GFS AND NAM
COVER ALL OF CWA BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN A BIT LESS EXPANSIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL WITH TAPERING
CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW

CANADIAN BECOMES AN OUTLIER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...DEEPENING A
SHORT WAVE INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER WAVE. HOWEVER THEY DEVELOP PRECIPITATION AS WELL SO CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY LOOK GOOD.

THEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE OBVIOUS WITH STRONGER CANADIAN
PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
FASTER ECMWF SHOOTS A FAST MOVING LOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER GFS BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
DRIES THE AREA OUT. THIS LEADS TO PERSISTENT CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY
BE DRY PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON FRIDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THANKS TO THIS
LOW...CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN TO THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL COME IN AS A MID DECK GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL BE PASSING WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THIS LOW WILL BRING A SHOT AT SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW IN PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM


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