Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 300836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FORCING WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH FINALLY MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY
EVENING TO TAKE ANY DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. MAINLY 3-5 MILE FOG HAS FORMED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
CENTERED OVER STATE.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES WHERE 1/4 MILE VSBYS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER LOWER
CLOUD COVER THAT STILL LINGERS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA CLEARED
OUT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED...MAINLY IN THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE
CLOUD DECK IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE OTHER
LOCATIONS WITH SPS ISSUANCES FOR NOW AND WATCH FOR NEED FOR AN
EXPANSION OF THE NORTHERN ADVISORY.

IN SPITE OF DECENT 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN...WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP AFTER FOG LIFTS. HAVE BACKED OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON

HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH RESULTING
SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING SOME MIXING...THOUGH DECOUPLING WITH
SHALLOW INVERSION WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD
BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEK...SO HAVE SOME
LOW POPS IN THERE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN POPS DURING ANY ONE
PERIOD. SHOULD BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AS 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 25C SUGGEST HIGHS IN AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MOST DAYS. IT WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AT TIMES WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WILL SEE MVFR/IFR FOG AND CIGS CONTINUE INTO
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH  AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER STATE BRINGING WEAK FLOW. WEAK WAA
AND SOME MIXING WILL BRING VSBYS UP AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG...WITH
SOME IFR VSBYS TONIGHT...THOUGH 10 KNOT PLUS WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW
VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER REGION AND A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 10 AM TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



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