Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010138
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT EJECTED OUT
OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS RAPID DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS. WE/RE SEEING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN ALSO DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS DEEP AND ONCE WE GET OUT FROM UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND PLENTY OF DRIZZLE. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS FOR TOMORROW
AS THAT PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRACKS ACROSS ILLINOIS
LATER ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS LAYS OUT ACROSS NRN IL AND
SRN WI AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. WE
HAVE HIGH POPS IN OUR WESTERN CWA ALREADY...JUST MAY NEED TO
STRETCH THOSE EAST. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IF YOU HAVEN/T NOTICED FROM THE NUMEROUS TAF UPDATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SERIOUS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY ON WHEN THEY WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY. CIGS HAVE BEEN RESISTANT TO LOWERING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DUE TO A DRY-ISH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND NOW
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
BUT...ONCE WE LOSE THAT SUBSIDENCE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY
DEEP AND VERY SATURATION LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WE SHOULD GET TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WE THEN STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT THIS ALSO COMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING DOWN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CAME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES. DECIDED TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX VCNTY NRN IL AT THE OUTSET OF THE EVENING
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VLY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. DEF ZONE
PCPN PROGGD BY MODELS TO BE AFFECTING THE AREA AT LEAST DURG THE
EVE HRS BEFORE WINDING DOWN MOSTLY LIKELY BY 06Z OR THEREABOUTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THIS PERIOD WITH ELONGATED
VORT/SHEAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE STRONGER
LOOKING VORT TAKING SHAPE DURG THE AFTN THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT MORE ACRS IL INTO IN. THE GFS IS ONLY MODEL
TO HAVE QPF ACRS THE CWA ATTM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE THOUGH DEFINITE CU POTENTIAL. SUPERBLEND POPS ARE QUIET
ATTM AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW AND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
KEEPING THE DRY LOOK FOR NOW. THE GFS AND GEM ALSO SHOW A LITTLE
STRONGER VORT ARRIVING LATER MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT FOR NOW
THE GFS IS OUTLIER IN SHOWING VRY LGT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
WILL STEER TOWARDS SUPERBLEND/COLLAB AND KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND ARRIVING HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHRA AND THEN DRYING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF
SHOW A TUE EVE FROPA WITH SHRA HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUE EVE/OVERNGT.
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BRING SOME POPS INTO THE NRN CWA
TUE AFTN AND THEN HIT POPS HARDER CWA WIDE FOR TUE NGT GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS. HOWEVER IF GFS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE WILL
NEED TO BUMP POPS MORE FOR TUESDAY AND DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND REGIME EXPECTED
IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. SO A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE LIKELY WITH GFS SHOWING 925 TEMPS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. SO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
TO NUDGE ABOVE 70. STRONG ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT LIKELY TO
NEGATE ANY LAKE COOLING SO TOOK THE WARMTH ALL THE WAY TO THE
LAKE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH WI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THE 925 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -1C TO 2C WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN SO
NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON LESS ENERGETIC LOOK WITH UPPER
LOW TO OUR EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONTO SW WS. THERE IS SOME
HINTS OF RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN LOW THAT COULD KEEP
THE CYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME APPRECIABLE WARMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...RAIN HAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS THEN DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING.

CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE TO GET LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT WITH THE VSBYS WHEN THE RAIN
LETS UP...BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS. PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


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