Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 012128
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
328 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

It still looks like clouds will stick around much of the time
through Friday. Models are showing the potential for less clouds
overnight, especially in the northeast half of the forecast area.
Not completely sold on this though given the extent of clouds across
the region. There are a few breaks to the north, so something to
keep a watch on as temps would certainly be lower than the forecast
tonight if significant holes develop.

Stuck toward the lower end of model temps for tomorrow given the
expected clouds. Highs should be around normal for early December.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

A weak ridge of high pressure will slide overhead and give us quiet
weather, light winds and cool temperatures. Unfortunately, weak
cyclonic flow should keep the low clouds intact through at least
Saturday morning and likely through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

An upper trough will swing through the Upper Midwest early Sunday
morning and take on a negative tilt by the afternoon when it reaches
the Great Lakes. Upper divergence from a passing upper jet to our
south will aid in general lift for southern WI. Precip type will be
snow in the morning, but likely change over to rain during the
afternoon as temps warm into the upper 30s. Amounts look light,
although the latest ECMWF came in with a little higher qpf than
previous amounts, still under two tenths. With fairly mild temps,
this translates to around an inch.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Expect quiet weather Monday with increasing clouds.

A closed upper low over northern Mexico will make its way over to
the Ohio River Valley by Tue morning. This trough may interact with
two other upper trough features which complicates the forecast a
little.

There are a couple of scenarios that models give us with that
feature. The GFS suggests a dry forecast for southern WI, with
mainly rain just to our southeast. The ECMWF just came in with
a rain/snow mix clipping southeast WI Tue.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is low.

The big story for the middle of next week is the potential for
accumulating snow over a portion of Wisconsin. The 00Z ECMWF had
dropped this idea, but now the 12Z ECMWF brought it back. The last
two runs of the GFS keep southern WI dry and cold since it has the
closed upper low farther south than the ECWMF.  This is a period to
watch, but still too far away to get excited.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Low clouds will likely persist into Friday given latest models
soundings and extensive cloud cover upstream. There is some
uncertainty though, as a few models show breaks in clouds and VFR
bases developing northeast half of the forecast area this evening.
There are some breaks upstream, but still looks pretty socked in
overall. Did bump up ceilings to VFR in the northeast this evening
and overnight, but may have to adjust those back down per latest
satellite and obs.

Drizzle and lingering showers will likely wind down by around
evening.

&&

.MARINE...

A few gusts could approach 25 knots into early evening, with lighter
winds then expected tonight into the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...MRC



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