Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 092042
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
242 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A weak trough of low pressure will move through late tonight into
Sunday morning. There isn`t much lift with this system and there
will be a fair amount of dry air in the lower levels. Thus,
limited the precip potential to flurries for the second half of
tonight.

There is a little less confidence with temperatures for tonight.
Clouds will eventually become widespread overnight, but there
will be a period of time during the evening and early night where
there will be areas of mostly clear conditions. Winds will
eventually become lighter. If there is an overlap of the lighter
winds and mostly clear skies, temps could tank fast given the
snowpack and low dewpoints. Stuck close to a blend of models for
now, but wind/cloud trends will have to be monitored closely this
evening for the potential for lower temps.

Pretty high confidence for mostly cloudy skies and near normal
temps on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...

Sunday night and Monday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

There is high confidence in a wave bringing some more light snow
accumulations to the area Sunday night into Monday. There are some
model differences with the exact low track and areas of higher
precip amounts. Overall, looks like around an inch of snow is
possible most places. The GFS and Canadian are highlighting a
swath of better forcing moving through the southern forecast area
on Monday, which could boost amounts a little there.

Tuesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Below normal temps are likely Tue/Wed as colder air moves in
behind the departing low pressure system. Dry weather is expected
these days under high pressure.

Could see another round of light snow Wednesday night and
Thursday. This is best supported by the GFS and Canadian
solutions, as the ECMWF has backed off snow chances for this
period, keeping high pressure in control.

Models are in decent agreement with high pressure bringing dry
weather Friday, followed by yet another wave Friday night into
Saturday. Went with a mainly dry forecast with this system, as
models generally have the better forcing and moisture to the
north.

Temps are expected to slowly warm the second half of the week,
with above normal conditions possible by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Clouds continue to be on a slow decease this afternoon, with
lingering ceilings sitting at around 3 kft. Should see mainly VFR
across the area by late afternoon or early evening.

Another wave will move through late tonight into early Sunday.
This wave will bring more clouds, but the snow will be limited to
flurries at best. Best chance for flurries is during the second
half of tonight ahead of the approaching wave. Will probably see
ceilings go back down to MVFR for a time later tonight into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory until midnight for the
southern two marine zones given lingering higher waves. The 9 pm
expiration in the north still looks reasonable.

Gusty winds will return later Monday into Tuesday as another low
pressure system moves through the area. Another Small Craft
Advisory is likely for this period, with a few gale force gusts
not out of the question.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Sunday Night through Saturday...DDV



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