Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. ANY SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...AS AIR BELOW
THE 600 MB LEVEL IS QUITE DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S...PER SHORT TERM BLENDED MODELS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY...BRINGING MORE COOL
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S WELL
INLAND...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER BUT INLAND
AREAS LOOK TO GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD FRONT AND MAIN CORE OF PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP SAT AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITHIN A 500MB RIDGE. OTHER FORCING IS LACKING SO KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING EXCEPT FOR A VERY LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH BRINGS WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS
GET AROUND 20C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WITH IT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH STARTING PRECIP
MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER.
GFS INDICATES PW NEAR 2 INCHES SO HEAVY DOWN POURS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ZONAL 500MB FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH JUST SHY OF AVERAGE
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD...JUL 8 THROUGH 14...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA OF LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SHOULD REMAIN IN
THAT AREA AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BECOME SCATTERED BY EARLY EVENING.
ANY LINGERING CUMULUS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER TONIGHT. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

EAST NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON INTO EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THURSDAY AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND EAST NORTHEAST AT MADISON.

MARINE...
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME QUESTION TO HOW MUCH THEY WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEB CAMERAS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



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