Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 172254
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
554 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Tight pressure gradient ahead of low
pressure moving through western Iowa will continue to generate
strong gusty winds for 1-2 more hours before insolation weakens.
Otherwise, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will affect
south central WI this evening, and possible southeast Wisconsin
late in the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 235 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2017)

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

The focus through the evening hours will be on the potential for
severe thunderstorms. Not much has changed with the setup, with
plenty of moisture, instability, and wind flow with strong low
pressure approaching from the southwest. The main severe threat
through the afternoon hours will be wind/hail. Wind shear will be
stronger toward the evening hours, increasing the potential for a
tornado threat.

Meso models show the western half of the forecast area to have the
best potential for storms through the late afternoon and already
seeing a few storms in the west. Some questions as to areal extent
and coverage of storms through late afternoon, with a couple models
showing a farther eastward extent of scattered storms. A more
focused line of storms is likely during the evening hours, moving in
from the southwest, then spreading eastward by late evening. Models
continue to show somewhat of a weakening trend toward Lake Michigan.

Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with a few showers
lingering overnight in the northwest toward the low. A round of
light showers is possible tomorrow, from mid morning into the
afternoon as a cold front drops through the area. Temps will likely
cool behind the front from northwest to southeast from late morning
into the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Showers and t-storms expected to return to southern WI later Friday
night into Saturday as upper ridge slides off to the east and low
pressure over the southwest fills and gets ejected northeast into
the central and northern Plains.  Short wave reamplifies and takes
on slight negative tilt as it progresses through the northern Plains
and re-energizes late in the period. Will continue likely wording
for later Friday night into Saturday when axis of strong low level
jet passes across southern WI, in rough timing with potential
mesoscale convective eddy generated by upstream plains convection.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium.

Cooler weather is expected early in the period as the main rain area
moves off to the northeast.  Differences in extended guidance on the
strength and timing of upper low over southern Canada through early
next week.  However Medium range guidance in somewhat agreement on
short wave trof rotating around upper low across the Upper Midwest
around Tuesday or Wednesday bringing another chance of showers and
storms to the area.

AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

A couple more rounds of storms are expected this afternoon and
evening ahead of approaching low pressure. Some of the storms may be
severe. A few showers may linger past midnight, with another round
of showers possible tomorrow as the cold front slides through. The
showers tomorrow will be on the light side.

Low level wind shear looks possible again tonight...from around
mid/late evening through late tonight.

Outside of lower visibilities in thunderstorms, mainly VFR
conditions are expected into tonight. Will likely see lower ceilings
tomorrow near and behind the advancing cold front.

MARINE...

Southerly winds will remain gusty through Thursday, veering to the
southwest by Thursday morning. With little to no onshore component
to the winds, waves should generally stay in the 3 to 5 foot range
through Thursday afternoon.

After a brief break, will likely see winds/waves pick back up
Thursday evening into Friday. Another Small Craft Advisory will
probably be needed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Tonight/Thursday and Marine...DDV
Thursday Night through Wednesday/Aviation...MBK



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