Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161718
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1118 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.UPDATE...

The forecast is on track. Temps are stable with the sun and the
cold air advection working in opposite directions.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. We`ll start to
see mid and high clouds stream into the area later tonight and
gradually lower on Saturday. There is a weak system moving in for
mainly the afternoon on Saturday that could bring some light snow
to southern Wisconsin. Any accumulations are expected to be at 1/2
inch or less. MVFR CIGS should accompany the rather narrow band of
snow that will move through. Look for the northwest winds to
diminish this afternoon and go nearly calm for a time tonight.
Winds will back to the southwest and south for Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 908 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018)

UPDATE...

The last of the lingering clouds will push out of the southeast
before noon. Lots of sun today, but temps will hold nearly steady
as cold air advection works against that sun. No changes to the
forecast.

MARINE...

Look for the gusty northwest winds to settle down through the
afternoon.

Gusty southwest winds are expected Saturday into Saturday
evening, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south winds are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as well. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for these periods.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 534 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018)

UPDATE...

The forecast looks on track for today. No updates are needed at
this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Gusty northwest winds are expected into the morning hours, as
colder air moves into the area. MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected
to move out of the area gradually from northwest to southeast
this morning, with clear skies this afternoon and evening. Middle
to high clouds should work east into the area later tonight. Light
west winds this afternoon will become south southwest and
gradually increase tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 358 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018)

SHORT TERM...
Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The cold air advection moving into the area is helping scour out
any remaining light snow showers or flurries across eastern
portions of the area early this morning. Skies will gradually
clear from northwest to southeast this morning, with gusty
northwest winds lingering. Temperatures will fall for a time this
morning, before rising into the middle to upper 20s this afternoon
with full sunshine and lighter winds.

High pressure will pass by to the south of the area later this
afternoon and this evening. South southwest winds will develop by
later tonight, with warm air advection developing. Some middle to
high clouds should push east into the area later tonight.
Temperatures will drop into the 8 to 12 above zero range this
evening, before stabilizing into the middle teens later tonight.

LONG TERM...
Saturday and Sunday - forecast confidence is high.

A surface trough will move through late Saturday afternoon with warm
air advection ahead of it. A pair of shortwaves and weak
frontogenesis will also be moving through during this time. Most
guidance is showing temperatures in the low 30s with gusty southwest
winds. Up to a half inch of snow is possible. Soundings show a brief
period with loss of ice in the dendrite growth zone so some light
freezing drizzle is also possible and it would be isolated. The
upper trough moves through late in the evening bringing and end to
precip chances.

An inverted trough moves through Saturday night along with weak
zonal flow aloft. Southwest flow picks up again on Sunday ahead of
the next system.

Monday through Thursday - forecast confidence is medium.

A wet period is in store. Precip could start early Monday morning
and temps may be below freezing resulting in some freezing drizzle
toward central WI. However there is a lot of uncertainty
narrowing down this detail at this time. Temperatures may be above
freezing by the time precipitation starts. Temperatures should
increase quickly during the day Monday as the low moves across
southeast WI resulting in a good amount of rain. Highs will likely
be in the 40s across much of the region. Southeast WI could see
around 1 inch of rain. As temperatures cool during the evening
there is potential for freezing drizzle with a deep warm layer in
the lower levels or it may be just a change over to snow. The
cold advection continues into Tuesday bringing a chance of snow.
It may linger into Tuesday night.

The ECMWF brings another wave of low pressure and lingers precip
into Wed. Models are in good agreement bringing high pressure and
dry weather for Thursday.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Gusty northwest winds are expected into the morning hours, as
colder air moves into the area. MVFR ceilings are expected to move
out of the area gradually from northwest to southeast this
morning, with clear skies this afternoon and evening. Middle to
high clouds should work east into the area later tonight. Light
west winds this afternoon will become south southwest and
gradually increase tonight.

MARINE...

Gusty northwest winds will be near Small Craft Advisory levels
into this morning. However, feel it is too borderline for an
advisory at this time.

Gusty southwest winds are expected Saturday into Saturday
evening, with gusts to 25 knots possible. Gusty south winds are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening as well. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for these periods.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Davis
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Marquardt


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