Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161558 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
LATE MORNING WILL LIKELY FILL IN. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE ON TRACK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE
TO FILL IN THIS MORNING...SO STILL EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WILL PROBABLY SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH BY
MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THOUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A NE-SW BAND OF LGT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WI AND INTO
ERN IA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MORE
SPECIFICALLY THE BAND OF SNOW IS WITHIN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO ITS
EXISTENCE.

THUS NEW SNOW ACCUM UNDER 1/2 INCH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SE WI. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS.
SWLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 30S.

FOR TNT A MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...WILL MOVE INTO WI EARLY MON AM. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TNT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTERWARD. TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW CWA BY 12Z MON WITH TEENS
TO THE EAST.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 500 MB LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
WORK INTO THE LOW LEVELS.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT DURING THIS TIME...AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. BRISK WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 MONDAY AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 0 TO 5
ABOVE MONDAY...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE IN A DEEP LAYER TRYING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WENT WITH POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRISK WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

KEPT POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GOING ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON GFS/ECMWF REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.
THESE MODELS KEEP THE REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BEFORE TRENDING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME SATURDAY.

THERE ARE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...SO USED CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME TRIES TO SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. UNTIL THEN...THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER SE WI THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS. VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
MILES WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1.5-2.5 KFT AT TIMES. MUCH LIGHTER AND
INTERMITTENT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE SAME
TIME PERIOD WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND AREAS OF CIGS FROM 2-3 KFT. MORE
WIDESPREAD CIGS OF 1.5-2.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP FOR LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND THE
APPROACH OF ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE
STRATOCUMULUS AND MVFR CIGS FOR TNT ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

MARINE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY MON AM WITH WLY WINDS
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER SE
CANADA. BRISK AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MON-TUE WITH
WIND GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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