Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 012245 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
445 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM PERIODS AND AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AREA OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FINALLY MIXED OUT
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW
THIS WILL BEHAVE TONIGHT. MODELS TRY TO BRING THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY OCCUR UNDER INVERSION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION IN FORECAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THE WINTER STORM TRENDS TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
MORE WARMTH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...GIVEN THE MILDER
LOOK OF AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON NAM/GFS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING TO BRING MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLY ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BROUGHT DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. REMOVED OZAUKEE...WAUKESHA
AND ROCK COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AS WELL.

THE BEST AXIS FOR HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO BE NOW IN THE FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY...CLOSEST TO THE COLDER AIR AND STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND. AMOUNTS HERE WERE LOWERED AS WELL
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN THE DELLS AND REEDSBURG AREAS.
TRIMMED WINTER STORM WARNING TO THE NORTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES PLUS
IOWA COUNTY...WITH A TIER TO THE EAST TAKEN DOWN FROM WARNING TO
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...ALSO ADJUSTED START TIMES OF HEADLINES
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ALL OF THIS WILL HINGE ON THE MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE
LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS AS OF LATE...HAVE
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. SOME WOBBLES MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN...BUT NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE LOW TRACK ARE EXPECTED.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CLOSED 500 MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS IOWA PROGGD TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
PERIOD AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. 700 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW SHIFTS FROM WC WI INTO NE
WI. THE 850 LOW BROADENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN AND ERN WI TUESDAY
NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THERE IS A SECONDARY VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED QPF LATE
TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SETTING UP. ATTM...THE GFS IS THE WARMEST
SOLUTION WITH ZERO C ISOTHERM ALL THE WAY TO THE DELLS WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW -3 OR -4C. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS ALSO
PROGGD TO MOISTEN BACK UP AGAIN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON SO EXPECT
ANY LINGERING MIX OR RAIN WITH THE LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO SWITCH BACK TO SNOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
OF WI. HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
GOING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW USED THE SUPERBLEND
QPF WHICH GENERATED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS...UNDER AN INCH. IF
NEXT RUN OR TWO MAINTAINS SOME OF THESE HIGHER QPF NUMBERS MAY
NEED TO NUDGE SNOW AMOUNTS AND POPS A BIT HIGHER.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
BEING DISPLACED EAST OF WI. SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE PROGS WITH SPOTTY
QPF MAINLY IN WRN OR NRN WI. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWED QPF ACRS SRN WI.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING WAVE ARRIVES WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING A
BIT MORE QPF ONCE AGAIN...JUST LIKE WITH THE PRIOR WEAKER SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A RENEWED SURGE OF WAA IS PROGGD WITH THE WESTERLY 850 FLOW
BRINGING IN MILDER TEMPS FROM THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY
DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO PUSH EAST FROM THE WEST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER FROM THE PLAINS. THE THERMAL RIDGE
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING SOME 925/850
TEMPS WELL ABV 0C. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON COLD FROPA WITH THE
12Z GFS A BIT QUICKER. MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM TIED TO 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF CAA WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIRMASS
STILL BACK ACRS MN. MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHSN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TAF
SITES TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH THIS HAPPENING.
OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WINTER STORM INTO TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW AT MADISON UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE EASTERN SITES AN HOUR OR TWO
LATER. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE EASTERN SITES IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH ALL RAIN POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS...MADISON SHOULD SEE MAINLY
MODERATE SNOW LATER TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN TUESDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS LOOK TO REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR
TUESDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED. HOURLY RATES OF
1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

MADISON WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER HALF INCH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS THE SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.

THE EASTERN SITES MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS
IN THE COMPUTER MODELS. THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX SUGGEST JUST A FEW TENTHS
ON AN INCH FOR TUESDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK
NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 15Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WILL BRING GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. SOME OF THESE GUSTS
WILL REACH GALE FORCE AROUND 35 KNOTS.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH HIGH
WAVES SHIFTING TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ067-
     068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ056-057-062.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ063-064.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WIZ051-052-058-059.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR


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