Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191654
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1054 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LAKE INDUCED STRATUS HAS LARGELY BECOME
MORE OF A BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD IN PARTS OF SE WI. OTHER LAKESHORE
AREAS STILL OVC. PLENTY OPF CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WAA. SO FAR GROUND TRUTH NEAR NIL WITH RETURNS ACRS
CNTRL AND SW WI. WILL LEAVE INITIAL PCPN OUT OF TAFS. THINK BETTER
SATURATION AND CONGEALING FORCING FACTORS COME INTO PLAY LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TUE MRNG AS WAA COMBINES WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AND PASSING 500 MILLIBAR WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR LIFR CIGS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH SOME IFR VSBYS
EVOLVING AS WELL AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS WOULD LINGER INTO TUE
MRNG. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...MAINLY A FEW TENTHS FOR THE
TAF SITES.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGING EVENTUALLY STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTH THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SPINE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID DAY.  THE CLOUD DECK COVERING THE NORTHEAST 1/2
TO 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY UNDER A WEAK NORTHEAST SFC WIND THAT VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN OR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS
COULD BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD FROM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AS WEAK WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

HAVE SOME LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL
WEAK SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS
TRENDED A BIT MILDER. LATEST FORECAST HAS TEMPS GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST LAND
AREAS SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AT
KMKE/KUES/KENW. BUT...EXPECT IT TO LIFT BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY MID
MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
A FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. BUT...THE TAF SITES
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH...OR A DUSTING. ALONG WITH THE SNOW...CIGS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


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