Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 240830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence - Medium.

We know it had to happen eventually.  Blocking high pressure ridge
that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has
finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes.
Our region will now be under the influence of persistent west to
southwest steering flow this period, and through the end of the
week.  This southwest steering flow will usher deeper column
moisture into the area today.  Expect surface dewpoints to increase
into the 50s to around 60 today as column precipitable water more
than doubles to around 1-1.25 inches.  These increasing southwest
winds are carrying a mesoscale convective eddy currently located in
central IA to the northeast.  Short term guidance not handling this
very well as showers and a few tstorms continue to develop and move
northeast.  For now have chance pops in my west early this morning,
but if trend continues, will be bumping up to scattered or possibly
numerous wording.  Spread chance pops across entire CWA later this
morning and afternoon.  Any convection from this morning`s passing
eddy may leave boundary draped across the area. MUCapes are expected
to climb into the 1-2k range with around 30 kts of bulk shear.
Marginal risk seems appropriate this aftn and eve as isold severe
appears possible.

Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high
clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for
inland areas.  Wl keep lower chance pops for the overnight hours as
weak frontal boundary slides south into parts of southern WI and
elevated instability remains. However chance definitely lower
than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and
low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains. Will need to
watch for fog development near the lake as winds turn onshore
later tngt.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The front is expected to lift northward through the forecast area
Wednesday, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.

It will likely be somewhat cooler most places Wednesday with the
front slowly making progress back into the area. Coolest temps
will be near Lake Michigan under east winds. Would not be
surprised at some fog lingering into Wed in the east given the
onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.

SPC has cut back on the Marginal Risk for severe storms for Wed,
with only the southwest forecast area highlighted at this time.

It is starting to look mainly dry on Thursday, as model soundings
are fairly capped. Cut back pops to slight chances most places
during the day. With 925 mb temps of 22-24 C per most guidance,
could be a pretty warm day. Bumped temps up a bit, but not as high
as 925 mb temps would suggest due to some uncertainty with
timing/placement of the front and associated convection.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Shortwave energy along with a surge of deeper moisture should
result in more rounds of showers/storms from Thursday night
through Saturday.

Kept chance pops for Sunday and Monday, but overall moisture will
be less and there is not a real obvious trigger for convection
during this period. Still can`t rule out a few storms though given
the expected instability and precipitable water values hanging on
at 1 to 1.25 inches.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Thicker cloud cover is expected today as deeper column moisture and
weak short wave low pressure pass through this morning. Atmosphere
becomes unstable this morning so possible a few storms could briefly
affect taf sites.  More scattered t-storms expected this aftn and
evening which would have a better chance of affecting eastern taf
sites.  Cigs should remain mostly vfr.  Later tonight a weak front
will sag south into parts of central and southeast Wi and may bring
some lower mvfr cigs to taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Mariners will need to watch for late morning and afternoon
thunderstorms as deeper moisture and atmospheric low pressure
ripples move into the western Great Lakes today.  The threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a weak frontal
boundary slips south across central into southern Lake Michigan.
The more humid air mass and lighter winds near the front may
result in areas of fog tonight into Wednesday. Lake temperatures
are in the upper 40s to middle 50s. With the humid air remaining
place through the end of the week, fog will be a concern each day.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.