Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 270215 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Some convection has snuck into our CWA from the west this evening.
As the evening goes on, this convection is decreasing in intensity as
daytime heating has come to an end and as the convection moves
further away from the main shortwave. This decrease in intensity can
be seen on radar and, within the last hour, on satellite as well.
Tweaked the pops for this update but all other forecast values seem
to be on track. Temps will drop only to near 70 area-wide tonight.


VFR conditions will continue this evening. Some locations across
western areas may see an isolated shower or storm tonight but most of
the activity will remain removed from TAF sites. Some low stratus may
again be possible tomorrow morning, which would lead to some MVFR
ceilings. These will lift through the morning hours and again VFR
conditions are expected for much of the day. Another day of some
afternoon storm potential in the west is expected. Winds will be out
of the south around 10kts and could even be gusty to near 20kts at
times, especially for Delta sites. /28/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...tonight through Saturday night...afternoon surface
analysis had a weakened 1018mb ridge nosing into eastern Mississippi
from the east. Afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had a
closed low spinning over the four corners region with a shortwave
over the southern plains topping a mid level ridge that was over the
northern Gulf extending across eastern Mississippi as well. The
shortwave was combining with a moist air mass and daytime heating to
develop numerous convection over east Texas and up into western
Arkansas. Some of this activity will try to spread into our cwa this
afternoon and evening but wl still be held at bay over the eastern
half of our area due to the ridging surface and aloft and a drier air
mass. A few of the storms may become strong to severe over our
northwest most zones with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph and hail up to
quarter size. The potential for strong thunderstorms will decrease
this evening as the shortwave lifts north and daytime heating ends.
The closed low will track east and over the central plains Friday
before opening up and lifting northeast Friday night. Ridging surface
and aloft will continue to limit convection over the southeast until
Friday night but convective development is expected to increase over
our west again Friday and spread a little farther east into central
Mississippi. A few strong storms will be hard to rule out especially
over our northwest Friday afternoon and early evening. The open
trough will be well north of our cwa Saturday but deeper moisture is
expected to be back over our whole cwa. Diurnally driven rain chances
are expected areawide but ending early. Saturday night should be dry
for the most part. /22/

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...another mid level low will be
dropping south over the western CONUS while a low moves over the
southeast CONUS Sunday. A moist air mass will reside over our cwa
but mid level riding will be strengthening just to our west. Diurnal
heating is expected to lead to at least slight chance pops both
Sunday and Monday across our cwa. The pattern looks to remain
unsettled through the end of the week where both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest a closed low moving over the southern plains and increasing
rain chances over our cwa Friday into Saturday. /22/


Jackson       70  87  68  86 /  14  17  21  20
Meridian      66  87  65  86 /   8   7  15  20
Vicksburg     70  85  68  86 /  33  27  25  36
Hattiesburg   68  87  67  88 /   6   8  11  20
Natchez       71  86  68  86 /  33  26  20  34
Greenville    71  84  69  85 /  33  52  43  39
Greenwood     70  86  66  86 /  19  29  36  32


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