Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 242052
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...It has been another muggy day, albeit not terribly
hot, across the ArkLaMiss region. Convection was ongoing early this
morning in association with an upper low/shortwave across the
region. This, combined with dewpoints in the 70s/PW values exceeding
two inches, and increasing daytime heating, resulted in further
coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. The greatest
concentration of storms continues to be in western counties/parishes
and overall these locations have seen about 1.5 to 3 inches in
spots. Most of these storms remain below strong or severe thresholds
as lapse rates today remain rather meager. However, it isn`t out of
the realm of possibility for one or two to bring some gusty winds.
The primary concern with these storms will be from frequent
lightning and heavy downpours. Further east, additional storms have
developed but coverage is more isolated to scattered.

The development of clouds and rain has kept temperatures closer to
or below normal for this time of year. This has limited heat indices
as well despite dewpoints in the mid 70s. Even still, some locations
have observed heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees, with isolated
spots exceeding 105 degrees(this is primarily in the heat advisory
region). Was thinking about canceling the heat advisory early due to
the considerable rain and cloud coverage, but some locations within
the advisory area have been spared some of the heavier rainfall and
seen some better insolation and thus will keep the advisory going. We
will, however, let it expire this evening.

The aforementioned low/shortwave will continue to track west and
this convection should diminish with the loss of daytime heating.
Continued muggy conditions will occur overnight and again on Monday.
A TUTT low, currently over south Florida, will track westward across
the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and into Tuesday. This, combined with
continued moisture over the region(as characterized by PW values
around 2 inches in the western and southern part of the forecast
area), will bring another afternoon of decent coverage of storms on
Monday, despite meager output from hi-res models. Models do show
some drier air moving in from the east in association with this TUTT
low, but there should still be enough moisture to bring some
potential for storms further north and east. Some models indicate
that dewpoints may mix into the upper 60s, which certainly would
feel much better, but may allow temperatures to heat more. Given
more rain and clouds in the central and west, temperatures will not
have the potential to get warm again tomorrow so heat issues are
again a little more questionable. Kept the limited heat potential in
the west going for Monday primarily for the better dewpoints, but
could certainly see this not panning out as well. These locations
should still see heat indices around 100-105 degrees. No heat
advisory is expected for tomorrow.

Continued high rain chances will remain in the forecast due to our
location within a weakness in the upper ridging pattern. This
pattern will also keep temperatures closer to normal for late July.
There may be some more heat issues later in the week due to moisture
increasing back again as PW values increase again to around two
inches. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered TSRA ongoing this afternoon across the region,
and some could affect TAF sites through 01Z. Storms should begin to
diminish through the evening hours and most sites will be VFR outside
of storms. Some MVFR/ IFR ceilings and brief MVFR/IFR visibilities
possible after 10z Monday due to low stratus and/or fog. VFR
conditions should resume thereafter with more storms possible Monday
afternoon. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  94  74  92 /  30  27  20  38
Meridian      74  95  73  95 /  16  26  20  32
Vicksburg     75  94  74  93 /  29  29  20  36
Hattiesburg   74  91  72  89 /  18  46  20  55
Natchez       73  91  73  89 /  34  48  20  48
Greenville    75  94  74  94 /  24  27  20  22
Greenwood     73  94  73  93 /  23  26  19  22

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$



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