Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300903
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.Discussion...Today through Saturday night....Radiational cooling
overnight will result in a cool, crisp morning throughout most of the
ArkLaMiss. Broken to scattered cloud cover associated with the nearly
stagnant upper low that continues to spin over the Ohio Valley, will
move into the Central Mississippi over the next few hours. These
clouds will serve as a thermal blanket for our northernmost counties,
not allowing anymore heat to escape the regions that they cover.
However, temperatures may be in the upper 40s near the Golden
Triangle region by the time the cloud cover arrives. These clouds
will begin to dissipate by 8AM before reaching the Jackson Metro
area.

The Lower Mississippi Valley region will remain on the southwest
side of the upper low today as it slowly begins to lift northward,
resulting in continued NW flow aloft for the region. Temperatures
today will be much like yesterday, however some slightly warmer
temps will be present in the counties along and west of the MS
River where upper level heights will be higher. Lows will once again
fall into the lower 50s Saturday morning. A warming trend will begin
on Saturday as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal. Highs will
be near there early October averages./JPM3/

.LONG TERM...

.DISCUSSION...Sunday through Thursday night...The upper low
will continue to move northeast out of the Ohio Valley but upper
troughing will persist on Sunday. Expect warmer highs in the mid 80s
on Sunday as models suggest warmer H850/H925 temps. Both the
GFS/ECMWF begin to build upper ridging over the area Sunday night
into Monday with the warming trend continuing. Highs on Monday will
climb into the mid/upper 80s, and as upper heights continue to
increase across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures
will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The GFS/ECMWF both deepen an upper trough over the southern plains
on Wednesday with the ECMWF the faster of the models. The ECMWF
develops some precip over the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
while the GFS keeps the precip west. The ECMWF is deeper with the
trough on Thursday and drives a cold front across the area on
Thursday along with precip. The GFS keeps the trough to the north of
the area and builds upper ridging back in. Will continue to keep at
least slight chance thunder on Thursday to align with our neighbors.
If Hurricane Matthew takes a track up the east coast like the GFS
suggest, expect the extended to mainly be dry, but its unclear what
track Matthew will take at this time./15/

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The patchy fog
that was present at GWO quickly mixed out after a deck of stratocu
approached the site. CIGs will fall to about 5,000ft at the
northernmost TAF sites this morning before cloud cover begins to
dissipate by 12Z. Winds will remain light throughout the and mainly
from the NW throughout the period./JPM3/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      80  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     81  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   81  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       79  56  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    80  55  83  56 /   0   0   1   0
Greenwood     78  53  84  55 /   0   0   1   0

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

JPM3/15



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