Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 160858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THIS...COUPLED
WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE OF WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER MY
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGERING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90
SOUTH.  SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70
SOUTH.

RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK CONFINED TO LOCALES IN THE
SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG THE 84 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW
STALLED FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE AGAIN A SLIGHTLY AIRMASS WILL NOW
RESIDE.  EXPECTED MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS
TOP OUT AROUND 90...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MED RANGE. THE
PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF TRANSITION WITH A NW FLOW TYPE REGIME IN PLACE
A WE WRAP UP THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/WV
RIDGING...THEN A SHIFT TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WHAT HAS CHANGED OVER THE
LAST 24 HRS IS NOW THE EURO/GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON THE
PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS MUCH BETTER ON THE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A DECENT LATE SEP COOL FRONT.

FOR THU-FRI...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO PART OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR SOME LOWER END PRECIP CHANCES FOR THU
DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA AND SOME WEAK WAVE ALOFT
MOVING BY. OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY LATER ON THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI ALLOWING FOR LESS PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRI INTO SAT. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUN INTO MON AS THE LARGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AND
PUSHES A STRONGER FRONT OUR WAY. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
RETURN FOR PART OF SUN INTO EARLY MON AS MOISTURE GETS FOCUSED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE AREA INDICATIONS THAT THE MOISTURE
COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM T.S. ODILE MAY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGIONAL CIRCULATION AS OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FROM THU-SUN. SOME
LOCATIONS (E/NE) MAY SEE LOWS NEAR NORMAL FRI MORN BUT THEN WARM
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL
READINGS AFTER THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
READINGS IF THE PATTERN CAN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ABUNDANCE OVER THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE AT SITES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS TODAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
BOUT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN A SITE`S RESPECTED AERODROME.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.  VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO PATCHY FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  67  91  66 /  22  13   7   5
MERIDIAN      89  67  91  64 /  26  12   6   4
VICKSBURG     89  64  91  65 /  21  10   7   5
HATTIESBURG   90  70  92  70 /  43  28  16  14
NATCHEZ       89  67  91  68 /  33  18  15  13
GREENVILLE    88  65  89  67 /  28   5   2  10
GREENWOOD     88  64  90  65 /  28   5   2  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/CME





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