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000
FXUS64 KJAN 220944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RADARS WERE STILL LIT
UP EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LEADING EDGE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LAST NIGHT`S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DRIFTING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MOST
ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED
A DECENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOON AND EAST OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT
AHEAD OF IT WL STILL HAVE A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF AND SURFACE DEW POINTS SURGING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S. DESPITE THE MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MERIDIAN. DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES
SHIFTS EAST. THE OPS GFS WAS AMONG THE COOLEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND
QUITE COOLER THAN THE NAM MOS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO GFS MOS ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS DIFFER
ON PCPN DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA WITH THE SREF AND NAM BRINGING PCPN
WHILE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOSTLY DRY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND BRING COOLER
THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING FORECAST
TO FLATTEN RIDGING FOR THE AREA SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE AGAIN BY SUNDAY BUT THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. THE EURO BRINGS SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING TO THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ITS ALSO MORE
INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN
THE NORTH...DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHING INTO NRN AR AND TN WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THESE FEATURES FARTHER N. THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION WILL
BE FOLLOWED FOR NOW IN THE LONGER RANGE BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ADDED IF IT BEGINS TO TREND TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE LOOKING
EURO.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY. WILL FOLLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL MEX MOS HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CUTTING MOS HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR SOUTH TO
THE MID 80S CONSIDERING THE COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER LOWS ARE FORECAST BY
MEX MOS FOR SATURDAY MORNING...INCLUDING READINGS IN THE MID 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF I-20 AND E OF I-55. HAVE ADJUSTED THESE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND EURO BUT KEPT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 FOR MANY OF THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BUT JUST NW OF HBG AT 09Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER HBG BY 10Z. GLH WAS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT 09Z WITH VFR PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AWAY FROM TSTMS WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THIS EVENING BUT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE BY 10Z THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  64  89  63 /  59   4  15   8
MERIDIAN      86  64  90  60 /  56  13  15   5
VICKSBURG     85  66  89  61 /  59   4  15  11
HATTIESBURG   88  66  91  64 /  55  17  19  10
NATCHEZ       86  66  90  65 /  60   4  19  15
GREENVILLE    84  65  88  62 /  37   4  10  10
GREENWOOD     84  62  88  60 /  50   4  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/03/22