Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 230202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH NEED FOR AN UPDATE TONIGHT. THE GRIDS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TONIGHT TO AROUND 2-5KTS AND
RESUME NEAR 5KTS THURSDAY. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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