Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 281628 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1028 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH WARMER THUS FAR THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.
READINGS AS OF 10AM ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DELTA REGION
WAS WARMER BUT ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN STILL...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
DELTA...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PINE BELT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR HOURLY TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
10KFT CEILINGS MIXED IN AT A FEW SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN FROM S AL BETWEEN 00Z-04Z.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN THAT. MORE RESTRICTED
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SUN OVER THE W/NW AND LIKELY
EXIST FOR THAT PORTION OF THE AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF SUNDAY. /CME/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. NORMAL LOWS
RUN FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH AND NORMAL
HIGHS RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LARGE >1040MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS RESULTING IN A COOL DRY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER OUR CWA AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA TODAY BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A
MORE EASTERLY WIND OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO NOSE BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND HELP INCREASE MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTHWEST
MOST ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DROPS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS SLATED
TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
GREAT POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
CARRIED OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTER AROUND CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES ISSUES MID/LATE WEEK.

THE WORK WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER JET DISPLACED WELL
TO OUR NORTH FROM THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MID
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN
DAYTIME TEMPS FROM THE DELTA TO THE PINE BELT ON MONDAY. IT WILL
ALSO BRING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THE EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM SECTOR
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. AIMED MONDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND WAA. IN AREAS
THAT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...THIS COULD BE ONE
OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONT PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
STILL WELL REMOVED TO THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE A BIT IN
THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER SCATTERED PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE PLAINS...THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT INSTABILITY (SBCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-60
KTS...ORGANIZED TSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHARP COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH RAW GUIDANCE DEPICTING SURFACE TEMP FALLS
OF NEAR 30F WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IN SPITE OF
THE SURGING SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH CONTINUING POST-FRONTAL PRECIP
CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND EURO
TEMP PROFILES SHOW RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
ACROSS PART OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST
THERE MIGHT BE FROZEN PRECIP. FOR NOW...INTRODUCED POSSIBLE FZRA TO
THE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE DELTA. THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE
ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO PRECIP TYPE AND AREAS AFFECTED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES AS YET ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR TRAVERSES THE REGION.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  44  65  50 /   3   6  24  64
MERIDIAN      60  42  64  50 /   3   6  18  49
VICKSBURG     54  44  64  48 /   3   6  38  77
HATTIESBURG   62  45  67  53 /   3   8  17  32
NATCHEZ       58  45  65  51 /   3   6  30  61
GREENVILLE    46  38  57  42 /   8  10  69  82
GREENWOOD     52  39  59  43 /   8   7  52  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/22/DL





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