Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 301152 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
652 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TODAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN MID
WEEK...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

Gusty southerly winds will continue to affect the TAF sites today
in advance of a line of thunderstorms pushing east across the
region. Periods of lower ceiling and reduced visibility, as well
as gusty and erratic winds may accompany the thunderstorms. Very
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning have been observed with this
line of storms already this morning. A chance for showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will linger into the afternoon until
the cold front ushers in drier air from west to east. Amendments
may be necessary to refine the timing for thunderstorms. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tonight,

Today`s focus remains on the potential for severe weather and heavy
rainfall, as a deep low pressure system sweeps through the central
CONUS. The deepening low has increased southerly flow over the
Southern Mississippi Valley at all heights, causing a surge of
anomalous moisture into our region. Blended total precipitable water
imagery shows a broad swath of 1.5 to 2 inch PWAT values extending
from south central Louisiana through southern Missouri. A line of
thunderstorms - focused mainly along an advancing cold front - will
continue marching eastward throughout the day today. The heaviest
and most intense rainfall looks to be associated with and MCS
centered in central Louisiana and another moving through northern
Mississippi and western Tennessee. Bowing segments along the line of
storms will have to be monitored for wind and brief tornado
potential. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be common across
the area today, with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding and
areas of river flooding will be possible with this heavy rain.
/NF/

Monday through Saturday night,

A lull in the active weather pattern is expected early this week
before the next potential heavy rain/severe weather event
threatens the ArkLaMiss as we go into Wednesday/Thursday. That
system should be followed by much cooler conditions to finish up
the week.

For the Monday through Tuesday night period, weak surface high
pressure will move east across the forecast area bringing dry
conditions with seasonably warm days and cool nights.

The next shortwave trough will then dig southward in association
with a fairly impressive tropospheric undulation (2.0 PVU
intrusion to near H600) that would result in rapid cyclogenesis
over the southeast CONUS. Global models have been quite erratic in
how much digging and cyclogenesis will take place, but they have
also been pretty consistent with the general large scale response
including impressive warm advection followed by strong height
falls. So expect the combination of forcing/moisture/instability
will be supportive of multiple convective rounds that could result
in very heavy rainfall in addition to severe weather.

Of course, depending on what transpires today, antecedent
conditions could be an issue with much of the area under a threat
for more significant flooding. We will be focusing more on this
event immediately following today`s system. Beyond Thursday, if
the more wrapped up solutions verify, would expect cyclonic flow
to maintain some what unsettled and much cooler conditions with
continued light rain chances as we go into Friday. If the more
progressive solutions verify, then drier/clearer and cooler
conditions would be the general rule going into next weekend. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  52  77  53 / 100  38   0   0
Meridian      80  54  78  52 /  94 100   0   0
Vicksburg     74  51  78  54 / 100  11   0   0
Hattiesburg   79  53  80  52 /  94  92   0   0
Natchez       73  51  78  54 / 100  10   0   0
Greenville    72  51  75  55 / 100  10   0   0
Greenwood     75  52  74  54 / 100  25   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for MSZ030-031-033-038-039-044>046-050>052-056>058-
     064>066-072>074.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ018-019-025>029-
     032-034>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

NF/EC



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