Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 180950
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
350 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Warm advection stratus has overspread the
majority of the forecast area this morning ahead of a cold front
quickly diving south out of the Central Plains. Very little in the
way of precipitation falling out of the shallow ascent of yet, but
that should change as the boundary encounters the deeper moisture in
place over the lower MS valley later today. Not looking for much
more than showers with the frontal passage as mid level warmth
should limit deeper convective development.

Despite the cloud cover, max temperatures today should still be able
to reach well into the 70s as temperatures are already in the
mid/upper 60s over the western two thirds. Near stationary high
pressure along the east coast and low pressure moving across the MS
valley has resulted in a strengthening gradient with some rather
gusty winds, primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Have
expanded the wind advisory south to catch the remaining portions of
the Delta and extended it until 9 pm as post frontal wind speeds
remain up until mid evening./26/

Sunday through Friday night: Cooler air will settle in over the
ArkLaMiss on Sunday with highs in the 50s for most of the area.
With the surface high moving across the area Sunday night expect
cold H925 temps, clear skies and strong radiational cooling to
allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s across
the area. The coldest temperatures will be over the northeastern
portions of the area. This cool air will hang around through
Monday with highs in the 50s once again, before the surface high
shifts to the east and southerly flow returns Monday night and
Tuesday.

With southerly flow and high pressure continuing, Tuesday will be a
nice day with highs in the mid/upper 60s with just a slight chance
of showers. A deep upper trough and associated dry cold front will
move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with cooler temps
returning. High pressure will prevail on Wednesday and on
Thanksgiving, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s each day.
The surface high will shift to the east on Friday with warmer
temperatures in the 60s. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Tightening pressure gradient has resulted in strengthening
southerly winds which will continue to be the trend through the
period with sustained 10 to 20 knots and gusts reaching near 40.
Warm advection stratus will overspread all TAF sites prior to dawn
resulting in MVFR ceilings. A cold front will cross the area this
afternoon/early evening resulting in a band of showers, winds
switching to the northwest, and ceilings rising to VFR shortly
thereafter./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  40  59  32 /  66  37   0   0
Meridian      76  41  58  29 /  39  67   0   0
Vicksburg     80  41  59  31 /  63   7   0   0
Hattiesburg   81  43  59  31 /  16  62   0   0
Natchez       79  41  59  31 /  59  19   0   0
Greenville    76  39  55  30 /  55   3   0   0
Greenwood     74  38  55  28 /  73   8   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$



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