Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270922
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST.
PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER TEXAS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
MAINLY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MAINLY
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S./15/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AND
MOVE EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. OTHER THAN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BUT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS MORNING...BUT PATCHY STRATUS COULD
BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO HBG THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING BY 15Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 01-02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES BRINGING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  55  65  50 /  36  78  71  40
MERIDIAN      73  55  66  51 /  13  56  69  56
VICKSBURG     72  56  62  50 /  43  84  64  29
HATTIESBURG   76  60  71  53 /  45  86  66  38
NATCHEZ       73  58  65  49 /  55  88  60  24
GREENVILLE    68  54  60  51 /  24  68  69  29
GREENWOOD     69  54  61  50 /  13  52  68  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/EC/


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