Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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366
FXUS64 KJAN 201132 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
532 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Despite the rather expanse cloud deck blanketing the area, VFR
flight categories continue to prevail at TAF sites this morning.
However, a brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible at namely KGLH
due to some low stratus trying to build into the Delta from the
west.  VFR categories are expected to again prevail areawide during
the afternoon hours, with some breaks in the cloud cover expected.
Winds will increase to around 10 knots from the southeast at most
locales by late morning. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...With high pressure at the surface centered east
of the forecast area, a weakening upper level low will shift east
across the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the next 24 hours,
with ridging aloft building into the region on its heels overnight.
This will result in warmer conditions across the CWA today and
tonight, with continued partly to mostly cloudy skies.  With the
increased warm advection and low aloft traversing the region, some
small rain chances will exist across mainly western and southern
portions of the forecast area through the day.  However, most
locales will remain dry.  Highs this afternoon will range from the
upper 50s to middle 60s.  Lows tonight will fall into the lower 40s
and middle 50s. /19/

Sunday through Friday...The region will be under southerly
return flow ahead of our next weather system on Sunday. This will
help make for a rather nice Sunday with highs in the 60s and some
lower 70s. Warm advection showers could begin in my western
parishes late in the day on Sunday as a result of this. A mid-
level trough will swing across the Central Plains through the day
Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will develop over the TX/OK
Panhandles and deepen as it pulls off to the north and east. This
will bring a cold front toward our area Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will move in later Sunday night and continue across
the region on Monday. Instability has gotten a little better in
recent model runs with MU CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg in the
southeast portion of the forecast area. This, combined with some
lapse rate and sufficient wind shear, may bring potential for a
few strong to severe storms on Monday. Given some run to run
inconsistencies, I will hold off on any mention right now in the
HWO/graphics but this may need to be included in future forecasts.

Rain should exit the region later in the afternoon Monday and high
pressure at the surface along with mid-level ridging will move into
the region. Dry weather should mostly continue through the remainder
of the week. Some showers may return by Friday as another system
looks to move through over the weekend. Temperatures behind the
front will be seasonal with overnight lows in the 30s and daytime
highs in the 50s. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  48  70  57 /  11   4   8  40
Meridian      64  40  69  52 /   6   3   5  14
Vicksburg     65  51  70  57 /  16   8  13  65
Hattiesburg   67  45  72  55 /  14   3   4  15
Natchez       65  53  71  58 /  24   8  14  64
Greenville    58  50  67  55 /  14  13  18  84
Greenwood     60  48  68  55 /   8   7  12  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

19



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