000
FXUS65 KABQ 152104
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE UPTICK WAS SUBSTANTIAL BETWEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY THE PWAT INCREASE FROM 0.21 TO 0.64
INCH OVER THE LAST TWO BALLOON SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS YIELDED ANOTHER
CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER STILL REMAINS DRY AND SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AGAIN IN THE 40 TO 50 DEGREES F
RANGE...CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
AGAIN POSE BIG DIFFICULTY IN GETTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO
THE SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOT ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
VIGOROUS EITHER. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON DRY AIR ALOFT WILL INVADE
FROM THE WEST...SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MEANWHILE A
WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH AND
COLORADO WITH NO OTHER IMPACTS FOR NM.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHES
ITSELF AMIDST A DEEP MIXING AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. STRONGER
SURFACE BREEZES WILL BE OBSERVED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. RECORDS ARE ALREADY AT TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THESE
FALLING. HAVE LEFT SOME CHICKEN 10 POPS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AM SKEPTICAL ANYTHING WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP.

POLAR JET INFLUENCES BEGIN TO BECOME MORE APPARENT BY FRIDAY. DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING INTO CA/NV...LEADING TO INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT OVER NM. THIS COUPLED WITH A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW...DEEP MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
KNOCK SURFACE WINDS UP INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MEAGER SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE...BUT LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH FUEL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. ONLY SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN LEFT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GAIN A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED
AND GONE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FEATURE. THIS MAY INTRODUCE MORE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE STILL VERY MEAGER.
LOWERING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE WHILE WINDS STRENGTHEN.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM WHERE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

STRONG WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW FILLS IN
SOME THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BELOW SATURDAY`S
SPEEDS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON MONDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTH THAN SUNDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
A SLOW-MOVING WEST COAST LOW COULD SUCK IN A RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NM. A ROBUST RETURN FLOW HAS YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED INTO NM THIS YEAR...AND THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE OR QUASI-
BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD FINALLY FIT THE BILL. HOPES ARE HIGH...BUT
REALITY BRINGS OUT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBILITIES ENDING TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER WINDS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...LOOKED LONG AND HARD AT FRIDAY
AS FAR AS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS CONCERNED. THINKING A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY MARGINAL.
MAY HAVE THE WIND FORECAST TOO HIGH WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE AREA
AFFECTED. WANT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS A LITTLE LONGER. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A WATCH FOR SATURDAY. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR THAT
ISSUANCE...AFFECTING LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA AS MOSTLY PATCHY CUMULUS WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL GROWTH IS SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ERUPT OVER THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS WILL START OFF BEING A MIX OF WET AND DRY THEN
TRANSITIONING DRIER SO LAL 6 FORECASTED OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE. SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF FORT SUMNER TO
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED
TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERTAKE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN APPEARING FROM CLINES CORNERS TO NORTHWEST OF
THE FORT SUMNER AREA FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A FLAT RIDGE/WESTERLY
FLOW RESIDES ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. GRIDDED FORECAST STILL SHOWING A
LITTLE BIT OF SUPER HAINES LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND HIGHER POINTS NEAR TO THE VALLEY.

FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON FRIDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TREND UP SOME AS A
RESULT BUT NOT UP A LOT DUE TO EFFICIENT MIXING DEPICTED BY THE
MIXING HEIGHT FORECAST. BREEZES WILL CERTAINLY KICK IN MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY/DRYNESS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SATURDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER
SOME BUT MORE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE STRONG
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL AGAIN BE
COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTWARD AS A WINDY PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ON TUESDAY...WEAK WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

19/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM
ARIZONA TODAY. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TO SCT -TS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
EASTWARD. TS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND WILL
GENERALLY END BY SUNSET. FOR THE MOST PART, SKIES WILL CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIRMASS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERTAKES
THE MAJORITY OF NEW MEXICO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
ON THURSDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  83  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  36  74  35  76 /  10   0   0   0
CUBA............................  38  77  38  78 /  10   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  41  79  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  36  75  36  75 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  42  82  40  81 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  80  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  48  85  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  33  72  33  73 /  20   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  81  47  77 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  47  76  51  82 /  20   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  36  77  36  78 /  20   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  30  68  30  68 /  30  10  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  70  29  73 /  30   5   5   5
TAOS............................  38  78  38  80 /  10   0   0   0
MORA............................  44  76  43  79 /  20   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  47  85  41  85 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  51  80  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  83  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  84  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  52  88  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  53  88  53  88 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  89  53  89 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  53  88  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  55  93  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  78  43  78 /  20   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  52  83  49  85 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  85  45  82 /  10   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  48  80  49  81 /  20   0   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  82  50  83 /  10   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  55  85  54  85 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  49  76  47  78 /  20   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  41  86  43  85 /  30   5   5   0
RATON...........................  42  88  45  87 /  20   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  42  86  41  88 /  20   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  82  47  83 /  20   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  55  90  54  93 /  20   5   5   0
ROY.............................  49  86  48  87 /  20   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  53  93  52  93 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  57  90  54  91 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  96  58  96 /  20   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  56  93  57  95 /  20   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  58  93  59  95 /  20   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  94  55  94 /  20   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  61  98  58  97 /  20   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  59  91  55  91 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  57  85  52  85 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

52/19/50