Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 301745 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Overall convective activity in the form of SH/TS will be more
across the entire area compared to yesterday. Although less strong
to severe storms across the eastern plains. High based
virga...drier SH/TS will impact western/central areas and lead to
gusty and erratic wind at times. Immediate impact looks to be
ROW. The most organized activity is expected to affect ROW later
today. More hit and miss at the other terminal sites. Used quite a
bit of VCSH through the evening. Low cig signature doesnt appear
to be as prevalent tonight but some impacts possible at TCC/ROW as
the dryline pushes back into the forecast area.

50

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system is sluggishly moving over southern
California and western Arizona. Dry air is preceding this system
over western and central New Mexico, however in eastern New Mexico
the surface dryline has invaded. The dryline, separating moist air
to the east and dry, warm air to the west will slosh around the
eastern tier of the state today. This feature will trigger some
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could turn strong to
severe this afternoon and into the early evening over eastern New
Mexico. If any showers or storms develop in western New Mexico
today, they will produce little, if any, rainfall. Temperatures
will be fairly seasonable for late May today. A cold front will
enter northeastern New Mexico on Tuesday where additional storms
are expected. By Tuesday night the front will spill farther south
and west through much of of New Mexico, bringing gusty winds,
cooler temperatures, and an increase in moisture. This will
signify a cooler, wetter weather pattern for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low circulation is evident on water vapor imagery over the
American Southwest with a pronounced dry slot rounding the base.
Some smaller scale short wave perturbations have preceded the low
with one currently lifting into western NM. The dry slot aloft
should advance further into NM today. Still, unstable conditions
and just enough mid level moisture will be present for some virga
and dry storms to develop over the western to northern high
terrain of NM this afternoon. Gusty winds will accompany the few
sprinkles that might fall in these zones.

Today`s forecast challenge for eastern NM remains focused on the
evolution of the dryline. Currently it has made another run much
farther than any synoptic models advertised. While this is not all
that surprising, it still makes it difficult to know exactly how
far east the dryline will mix this afternoon. The high resolution
models such as the RAP and HRRR seemed to have a much better
handle on the dryline evolution yesterday, so that was a strong
consideration for today`s forecast. Feel that some 40s to 50s
dewpoints will stand their ground over much of the eastern plains
today, yielding some isolated to scattered showers/storms with the
potential for some strong to severe cells again. Accordingly, the
max temperatures were nudged down a few degrees in the eastern
plains to account for the moderation effects of the moisture and
clouds from convection.

On Tuesday, the cold front is expected to back into northeastern
NM. Moisture advection and surface convergence will help ignite
storms along and near the boundary Tuesday afternoon with
potential for more strong storms. The repetitive pattern of dry,
warm, and breezy conditions persists in western NM with another
threat of dry storms/virga.

The front will be the catalyst that induces a shift to a much
cooler, wetter pattern by mid week. Tuesday night, gusty winds
will accompany the front as it slides down the eastern plains and
advances west beyond the central mountain chain of NM. This will
produce a canyon wind event, but at this time the speeds do not
appear too rambunctious. Higher dewpoints will spread across the
state with the progression of the front, fueling storms Wednesday
and Thursday, with enough moisture leftover for recycling on
Friday. Upslope areas will fare the best during the mid to late
week period as the upper low crosses just south of the bootheel of
NM and into south TX.

By the upcoming weekend, a highly amplified ridge of high pressure
will set up over the western U.S. with any storms likely relying
on diurnal heating and localized upslope. After the cooler stint
in the middle to latter part of the work week, temperatures should
rebound this weekend, getting back closer to average for early
June.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A tale of two weather regimes the next couple of days, then becoming
cooler and not as dry for most locales.

The west will continue to be bone dry with high haines, fair to poor
rh recoveries tonight, and potential for dry showers and storms
today through Tuesday night. The east will see the dryline
retreat eastward this afternoon, after having reached the central
mountain chain early this morning, and return westward tonight,
although perhaps not as forcefully or as far. A few strong to
severe storms are possible this afternoon east of the Pecos
Valley, or along and east of the dryline, wherever that may be.
Model opinion is varied, to say the least, exactly where the
dryline will be located this afternoon, with HRRR and RAP farther
west and the GFS mixing it out much farther east. Leaned toward
the farther westward location in the grids.

A cold front will push into the eastern plains tuesday, then through
the central mt chain tuesday night on gusty east winds. The low
level moisture surges farther west Wednesday/Wednesday night, and
may seep to areas between the contdvd and the arizona border.
Consequently, chances for convection with wetting rain will increase
a bit over much of the west, and humidities will increase,
especially between the Rio Grande Valley and the contdvd. However,
chances for convection, and wetting rain, are still the best across
the northern mts, portions of the central mt chain and eastern
plains Tuesday through Thursday before tapering off.

High temperatures will be near to below average Wednesday through
Friday, and warm to within plus or minus 5 degrees or so of average
for the upcoming weekend. Vent rates today will be excellent, and
mostly good to excellent Tuesday. Vent rates, along with mixing
heights, decrease Wednesday and Thursday, especially in the northern
mts, northeast highlands and portions of the east central, where
some pockets of fair to poor rates may be found. Rates improve
Friday but decrease again Saturday as an upper ridge builds over the
southern Rockies. The ridge will lead to a decrease in
humidities, in particular from the Rio Grande Valley westward next
Saturday and Sunday. Chances for convection look to taper down,
and may be more limited to the higher terrain and then the
adjacent lower elevations as cells drift to the south and
southeast. Another front may impact the eastern plains over the
weekend, but doesn`t look as strong as the Tuesday/Wednesday
front.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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