Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271135 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mid level cloud deck will continue to push northward this morning
but will slowly dissipate as it does so. Enough moisture will be
in place this aftn for a few storms to develop across far western
NM. Otherwise, a quiet day with clouds generally dissipating
across all but western NM this eve.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low circulation will gradually move north into Arizona and
over the Four Corners region through Thursday. In addition, moisture
associated with a tropical storm may be drawn northward. Showers and
thunderstorms will be focused over the southwest third of the state
today into tonight, and from the Arizona border over the Rio Grande
valley Wednesday into Thursday night. A drying trend is expected
through the upcoming weekend and early next week, although
afternoons may be breezy. High temperatures will warm to near to
above average as the week progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes required to the inherited grids. Upper low
circulation generating a band of light showers from the west central
to the south central early this morning which has been lifting
northward. The activity seems to be decreasing the farther north it
reaches so thinking the 10 or so pops for central zones such as the
ABQ metro and east mts should be ok. Highs today will be a few
degrees warmer but remain below average generally south of I-40,
while near to above average closer to the CO border. Thunder looks
to be limited to the western third where the better instability
is forecast.

The upper low is still forecast to devolve into potentially a weaker
circulation which creates one wave of precipitation for wrn NM
Wednesday into Wednesday night, while the remainder of the low and
moisture from the tropical system result in another wave of
precipitation from the AZ border to the RGV Thursday and Thursday
night. Models seemed to be focusing on a strip of higher
precipitation amounts near or along the Contdvd during this time,
and producing some hefty pops, consequently followed suit in the
grids. Chances for precipitation start to diminish Friday as the
low`s remaining energy track over nrn NM. This now appears to be a
slightly slower process, based on the new GFS, but a drying trend
remains in store for NM into Sunday, when afternoon breezes could
begin to develop, depending on the timing of the short wave depicted
later that afternoon.  More short waves are indicated for next week,
with breezy afternoons likely. Chances for wetting precipitation
more uncertain, with the ECMWF pattern more amplified than the GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The upper level low churning over the Baja is still expected to
start to move northward toward southwest AZ late today and will
continue to push northward on Wednesday. Modest subtropical moisture
will shift northward into western NM each day which may allow for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly
near and west of the ContDvd. Wetting rains will be spotty at best
both today and Wednesday, but there should be a good amount of mid
and high level cloud cover areawide. Meanwhile, expect temperatures
to warm, with all areas near or above normal on Wednesday. Not much
wind today will yield poor ventilation across all but far western
NM, but ventilation is expected to improve on Wednesday for all but
portions of the east central plains.

Subtropical moisture transport will increase on Wednesday night and
Thursday as what is left of the upper low shifts north-northeastward
increasing southerly flow over NM. As a result, precipitation
chances will increase for Thursday. Best chances of wetting
precipitation appears to be across western NM, but the NAM continues
to show potential along the central mtn chain as well. Storm chances
will shift somewhat east on Friday, though the favored area for
wetting precip will be across the northern mountains. Temperatures
on Thursday and Friday will hover near or just above normal for all
areas and humidities will increase. Ventilation should not be a
problem on Thursday, but a few areas of poor ventilation are
possible across the north on Friday.

Much drier air looks to filter into the state over the weekend.
Humidities will really start to drop by Sunday and afternoon winds
will start to increase as well. This trend is expected to continue
on Monday, though it will depend on how fast and how deep the next
upper level trough is as it crosses the western ConUS. The latest
GFS keeps the jet north of NM while the ECMWF takes it over NM
resulting in stronger winds.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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