Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 052214
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm up across the eastern plains on Monday will be short-
lived as a backdoor cold front drops in there on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages
Tuesday before a modified arctic airmass drops in from the north
and northwest Wednesday. Winds will shift to east and
northeasterly Thursday, ushering in more cold air. Friday morning
will likely be the coldest morning of the season so far,
especially east. Areas of light snow will develop across the
northern mountains Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday
morning. A warming trend will get underway Friday afternoon and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Downsloping (Chinook) westerly winds resulting in quite the warm
up for the eastern plains today. Clayton reached 71F with moderate
west winds and Tucumcari has reached 67F. The warm up across the
east will come to a screeching halt tonight as a backdoor cold
front drops down. Temperatures will struggle to get out the 30s
across the northeast plains Tuesday. Elsewhere, temperatures will
be near seasonal averages.

Cold and broad upper level trough drops sewd into the Great Basin
Tuesday evening, accompanied by a modified arctic airmass. This
airmass begins to slide in from the north around sunrise
Wednesday, spreading southward through the day. Areas of light
snow develop along/near the front Tuesday night into Wed morning with
light accumulations most likely in the Tusas mountains east of
Chama and Tierra Amarilla as well as in the higher elevations of
the Sangre de Cristos. Modified arctic surface high slides
southeast across eastern MT and northeast WY Wednesday, shifting
the sfc pressure gradient across NM to nely and ely by 12z
Thursday. East winds develop in the mid RGV Thursday morning,
contributing to single digit wind chill values. Thursday still
looking like the coldest day of the week, especially north and
east where temperatures will be 12 to 22 degrees below average
for early December. Friday morning still looks the coldest morning
of the season for most locales.

Warming trend gets underway Friday and continues into the weekend.
GFS and ECMWF agree that a weak ripple in the strong zonal flow
aloft will bring slight chances for some light snow across the
far north both Saturday and Sunday nights. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions will prevail with temperatures slightly above seasonal
averages for early December.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As expected, the west northwest flow aloft has been quite strong
over NM with the jet to the north bowing closer to the state. Strong
winds have been buffeting the ridges of the Sangre de Cristos with
breezy to windy conditions impacting most remaining areas at the
surface/20ft level. Temperatures have warmed closer to seasonal
averages in most western to central zones, but have soared well
above in the northeast to east central plains. Some locally critical
conditions are being met just east of the Sangres, but most of the
lower elevation areas farther east are observing winds below the
critical criteria.

Humidity recoveries tonight will not be quite as high in the eastern
plains, but still excellent most other locations.  A cold front is
still slated to arrive overnight into the plains of NM, only briefly
kicking up some gusty conditions and setting temperatures back a few
to several degrees going into Tuesday. The jet stream will also sag
a bit farther south into NM on Tuesday, keeping winds aloft strong
out of the west northwest while the surface winds veer more south
southwest during the daytime. This regime will spell breezy to windy
conditions Tuesday afternoon, mostly over the western high terrain
of the forecast area. High temperatures will be cooler areawide, but
especially in the eastern plains where readings will drop some 10 to
15 degrees below normal with higher RH. Some light snow would be
possible in the northern mountain zones, and ventilation rates
should boost due to the stronger winds.

A trough and second cold front passage is still expected Wednesday,
bringing strong winds aloft over NM. The strongest belt of winds
aloft looks to cross the state early in the morning, out of sync
with peak heating and mixing. Thus surface/20ft winds may not reach
their full potential Wednesday afternoon, but considerably windy
conditions will pound the mountains and high ridges in the morning.
Precipitation chances and amounts are advertised to be quite bleak
in the northern zones Tuesday night and Wednesday with the European
model remaining a bit more enthusiastic than other models.
Temperatures will quickly begin cooling from north to south
Wednesday as the arctic airmass enters NM, and breezy to windy
conditions will accompany the front, as will decent ventilation
rates. Several northern mountain areas are then forecast to plummet
below zero Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Daytime high temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees below average on
Thursday. The cold airmass will put the kibosh on mixing, and
ventilation will be poor areawide. Thereafter the pattern will
remain dry and dominated by a brisk west northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures quickly trend up, with near to slightly above average
readings expected by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low clouds/fog have eroded away in the Pecos River valley with VFR
conditions now prevailing throughout New Mexico. The jet stream
is bowing southward, leading to stronger winds aloft within the
state. These strong winds will buffet ridge tops of the northern
mountains of New Mexico, possibly leading to some mountain wave
activity. Strong surface gusts between 30-35 kt will be possible
for a few hrs at RTN/LVS/TCC/CQC. No areas of low clouds are
anticipated tonight, but a cold front will shift direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  21  44  22  32 /   0   0  10   5
Dulce...........................   6  38  10  28 /   0  10  30  10
Cuba............................  19  38  18  31 /   0   5  20  10
Gallup..........................  19  46  22  38 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  16  43  21  37 /   0   0  10  20
Grants..........................  19  46  24  39 /   0   0   5  10
Quemado.........................  20  46  26  41 /   0   0   5  10
Glenwood........................  30  54  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................   9  35  13  26 /   0  20  40  10
Los Alamos......................  24  39  25  34 /   0   5  10  10
Pecos...........................  21  39  24  35 /   0  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  12  33  14  27 /   0  10  20  10
Red River.......................  12  27  13  18 /   0  20  30  20
Angel Fire......................   3  32   6  22 /   0  10  20  20
Taos............................  13  37  19  31 /   0  10  20  10
Mora............................  19  38  21  34 /   0  10  10  10
Espanola........................  24  44  27  39 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  24  40  25  35 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  21  43  25  38 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  48  31  42 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  50  32  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  51  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  28  51  30  45 /   0   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  22  53  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  50  30  45 /   0   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  32  56  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  26  43  28  37 /   0   0   5   5
Tijeras.........................  24  47  26  41 /   0   0   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  46  22  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  23  42  26  37 /   0   0   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  47  30  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  52  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  28  48  31  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  14  31  15  25 /   0   0  10  10
Raton...........................  13  34  16  30 /   0   0  10  10
Springer........................  18  40  19  36 /   0   0   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  19  37  21  38 /   0   5   5   5
Clayton.........................  19  35  19  31 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  19  34  20  34 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  42  29  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  28  43  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  25  43  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  27  43  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  29  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  45  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  31  51  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  32  51  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  51  35  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ512>515-523.

&&

$$

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