Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra/tsra along the central mt chain and the RGV this evening
will produce gusty and erratic outflow winds and some bldu under
the stronger cores. High based activity will likely keep things
at VFR. Activity will propogate eastward across the plains thru
the evening. These storms are wetter and may produce brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys thru 03z. Mid level cloud decks near 100 will linger
most of the night around central/eastern NM before clearing aft
sunrise Saturday. Another round of storms will develop Saturday
with greatest focus from the central mt chain east along the I40
corridor.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main weather
feature for New Mexico for the next week. Temperatures will be
going back to near seasonal normals with slightly below normal over
the southeastern portions of the forecast area as increasing cloud
cover this week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Enough moisture will be entering the state to keep chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for most of the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate feature over the
next week for New Mexico as the center of the ridge moves westward
to recenter over the Four Corners by Monday. While the ridge is in
transition, a deep upper low moving along the US/Canadian border
will bring some upper energy into New Mexico, serving as dynamic
support for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Models
differ in location of this energy, but in general some sort of
deformation zone will setup over NM along a southwest to northwest
line through the center of the state later today and persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows widespread moisture over
the state with most stations seeing dew points in the mid to
upper 40s with some locations in the southeast in the mid 50s.
Additionally, a fairly impressive looking eastward moving closed
low over northeast Mexico will help advect more low-level moisture
in from the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The combination
of these factors should lead to fairly wide coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Convection is
expected to start over higher terrain and propagate into the lower
elevations during the evening through Sunday. Saturday afternoon
and evening appears to be the best day for showers and
thunderstorms with the deformation zone at its maximum and
precipitable water values of near 1.0" for the eastern half of the
state. As the deformation zone begins to diminish on Sunday,
precipitation chances decrease somewhat but a chance of
showers/thunderstorms will remain over most of the area.

As the high settles in place over the Four Corners for the
remainder of the work week, temperatures will remain near normal.
Gulf moisture will continue to enter the region through the
week, which will help to keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the work week.

54/Fontenot
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pre-monsoonal weather regime is in place...with a potential
early start to the 2016 monsoon looming. PWATs were once again
well above normal this morning and are forecast to continue above
normal across all but the northwest through Sunday. PWATs are
actually forecast to increase more Saturday night into Sunday as
rich Gulf moisture advects northwest to near the Continental
Divide. Coverage of wetting storms will decrease Saturday near and
west of the divide where hot...dry and unstable conditions will
reside...but will trend up Sunday which looks like the day with
the best wetting potential this forecast cycle for much of the
area.

Early next week...the upper high will strengthen over the Great
Basin...extending a ridge axis southeast across the Four Corners
into New Mexico. However...more than sufficient moisture will remain
in place for daily rounds of wetting storms. High temperatures will
be closer to normal for a change thanks to additional clouds and
potential rain-cooling. Humidity recover will continue to improve
across much of the area and be good to excellent...except for some
pockets of fair recovery across the northwest and Rio Grande Valley.

Toward the later half of next week...the upper high is forecast to
shift south of the area...steering moisture over western and
northern New Mexico where the best chances for wetting rain will
reside. Otherwise...not much to put our finger on in terms of
trends.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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