Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 041157 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK STRENGTH FOR THE
WEEK OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHEN SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS
ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NE AT 15 TO 30 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN MT OBSCURATION AT TIMES. E PLAINS TAF SITES
COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
THEIR CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. MOSTLY WET MICROBURSTS WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
40 KT TODAY AND SATURDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING IS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT RECENT MODEL
DEPICTIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WETTER THAN WHAT ACTUAL SOUNDING
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE BEEN. OVERALL THE PROMISE
OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE
PROGGED A FEW TO SEVERAL DAYS AGO WILL NOT BE FULLY REALIZED...
THOUGH THERE STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODERATE INCREASE IN
DECENT RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE DAY SATURDAY WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY A GENERAL DRYING TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALSO
SHOWING AT LEAST A MODEST DOWNTURN MOST AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMING BEGINS SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...PRECIP H2O VALUES STILL PROGGED BY MOST FCST MODELS TO
REACH WELL OVER AN INCH BY LATE THIS AFTN TO EARLY EVE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL NM. WE WILL
SEE...BUT BELIEVE THOSE NUMBERS TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE. THE ABQ SOUNDING WAS ACTUALLY
0.71 OF AN INCH 00Z FRI WITH MODEL DEPICTIONS INDICATING IT
SHOULD HAVE BEEN ONE TO TWO TENTHS HIGHER. BELIEVE THIS MODEL PWAT
OVERFORECASTING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO MODERATE UPTICK IN RAIN
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...BEST ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AND OVER TO
JUST NE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVING SAID THAT THOUGH...DECIDED
TO LOWER POPS AT LEAST THROUGH SAT FOR MOST AREAS...GREATEST
DEGREE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS. ALSO LOWERED MOST POPS IN THE
MIDNIGHT TO NOON PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LARGELY BASED
ON THE RECENT QUIETER THAN EXPECTED LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
STILL...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TRENDS...THE INHERITED FCST WAS
VERY MUCH ON TRACK. THE DRYING TREND STILL LOOKS TO START IN THE
SUN TO MON PERIOD AND WITH...SOME MINOR TO MODERATE
VARIATIONS...CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. GFS STILL
HOLDS ON TO SOMEWHAT MORE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK
DUE TO MAINTAINING A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW ALOFT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND ITS...MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT...OVERFORECASTING OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP COVERAGE.

TEMPS LOOKED REALLY GOOD AS WELL SO FEW CHANGES SEEMED NECESSARY.
SOME MODEST TO MODERATE COOLING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT...THEN SOME
MODEST WARMING THEREAFTER.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT STRENGTHENING THE MONSOON
MOISTURE SURGE OVER WESTERN NM. TODAY AND THIS EVENING LOOK LIKE THE
WETTEST PERIOD OF THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD COVERAGE OF 0.25 TO 0.75
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE LEAST FAVORED FOR PRECIP WITH
SPOTTIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

THE UPPER LOW ON THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...THEN TO PICKUP SPEED AS IT EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD SPREADING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LEE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AT THE
SURFACE SATURDAY...CAUSING SW WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY EAST
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO NM FROM THE WEST WITH A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE S ON SUNDAY
AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP ACROSS THE N. THERE IS STILL A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY ANY MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND HAS A
SLIGHTLY MORE NE TO SW ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS OVER W TX...FUNNELING
BROAD COVERAGE OF MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NM.
HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE A SHALLOWER TROUGH
ON THE WEST COAST AND A MORE E/W ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS S OF
NM...KEEPING BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS DO AGREE
ON A FAIRLY DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO THE NE ON MONDAY.
THEY ALSO DEPICT ONE OR TWO WETTER FRONTS DIVING IN FROM THE NE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...IN ADDITION TO THE GILA
REGION...LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD SHOULD
BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR
DOWNWARD TREND AREAWIDE TODAY AND ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AS
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME WARMING
WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLD FRONTS MAINLY IN THE EAST NEXT WEEK. POCKETS OF POOR
VENTILATION NO LONGER LOOK TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE WEST TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THEY COULD DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONTS IN
THE EAST NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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