000
FXUS64 KBMX 150308 AAB
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1008 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH SURFACE FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...THE RESULT IS A MUCH DRIER...BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE
DAY FOR MID JUNE. IT FELT COOLER DUE TO THE MUCH WELCOME LOWER DEW
POINTS. SO FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER
THE RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE
STATE AND NEAR CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
IN DECENT SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE BASED UPON CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW SO WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT TOI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY AMAZING DAY FOR MID JUNE. MOST OF THE CWA IS
EXPERIENCING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. CLEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS NICE AS
WELL (MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER) AND THEN A FEW CHANGES BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT
WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH AND ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER WAVES...WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS AND LIFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT SHIFTS INTO
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CWA PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
THEREFORE...LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN BECAUSE THERE ARE SEVERAL MCS
SCENARIOS BEING DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE AVERAGE TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE
RANGE DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     58  87  66  87  69 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANNISTON    62  87  69  87  71 /   0   0   0  20  30
BIRMINGHAM  65  88  72  88  74 /   0   0   0  20  30
TUSCALOOSA  63  90  72  91  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
CALERA      64  88  71  88  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUBURN      66  87  69  88  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  91  72  92  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        65  90  70  90  72 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/19/88