Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 291124 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH NO FOG BEING
REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE A DECK
OF STRATUS CUMULUS AROUND 4-6K FEET LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KBRO.
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING AND TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY PROVIDING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
VSBY WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO BE LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH VERY
SLOWLY LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND LARGE TROUGH BECOMING CARVED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST...THE FRONT PICKS UP SOME FORWARD MOMENTUM.

LOOKING AT MODEL SURFACE MSL PRESSURE CHANGES, DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. ALL PARAMETERS WITH EXCEPTION TO A BACKING WIND
INDICATES THE FRONT LOOSES ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ARRIVES
IN OUR REGION THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE ONLY INDICATOR OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AS THEY BACK EAST TO NORTHEAST. NOT GOING TO PUT ANY TIMING
ON THE FRONT WITH THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER BY SUNSET.

WITH THIS SAID TODAY`S AND THURSDAY`S FORECAST TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED. ISOLATED PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING COULD
SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME POOLING OF
SURFACE MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED AND SHALLOW AND WITH LITTLE TO FORCING WITH THE
FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH EXCEPTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE WAY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SWEEP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND DRY AIR INVADES THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF THE VALLEY
WHICH MEANS A NICE COOL MORNING IN THE RANCHLANDS SATURDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 50S THERE WITH LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL SWITCH
OVER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WAA DRAWING UP MOISTURE AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL RATCHET UP THE WINDS TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AND/OR MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKS OUT
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY S/W TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT AND SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK TO DRAW UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PROGGED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME
TEMPORARILY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
BACK EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK AS IT OOZES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING LIGHT
WITH NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTION WORDING EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS STRENGTHENS SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS MARINE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  70  83  70 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  68  85  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              87  67  86  67 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  67  87  66 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  74  83  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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