506
FXUS64 KBRO 290332
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1032 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 10:22 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

 - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues monitoring
   Tropical Depression (TD) Two, located over the Bay of
   Campeche, forecasting a northwestward track and making landfall
   as a tropical storm in eastern Mexico Sunday night.

 - Aside from potential multiple rounds of brief heavy rainfall,
   gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning, no direct impacts
   are expected across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

 - Beginning tonight, at least a moderate risk of rip currents is
   expected, continuing into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

As of 4 PM [CDT] this afternoon, Tropical Depression (TD) Two has
formed over the Bay of Campeche and is expected to strengthen to
a tropical storm on Sunday before making landfall in eastern
Mexico Sunday night. No direct impacts are expected to deep south
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Yet, beginning tonight, short
term high resolution and global models are in agreement with
PWAT`s rising above 2.0 inches, indicative of the deep, moisture-
rich tropical air mass being advected northwestward from this
system via low level southeasterly flow. As such, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become numerous over the next 24-48
hours, increasing in coverage from east to west throughout Sunday,
with a medium to high (30-60%) chance of rain spanning across the
entire CWA into Sunday afternoon, with the highest probabilities
focused near, and east of, US-281. Convection is expected to
remain diurnally-driven with PoP`s maximizing during the day, as a
result of surface differential heating, and minimizing at night;
PoP`s fall to low to medium (20-40%) Sunday night (mainly east of
I-69 E) before rising back up to medium to likely (30-80%) by
Monday afternoon and falling again Monday night to similar PoP`s
as Sunday night.

Through Monday night, we are forecasting at least half an inch of
rain across most of the RGV and the coastal counties, with generally
lesser amounts further to the north and west (including the Rio
Grande Plains and rest of the northern ranchlands). We expect the
highest amounts to fall across SPI, the lower RGV and the coastal
counties in which some areas could see close to an inch or more.
Rainfall totals are likely to vary locally with areas receiving
more, or less. Although we are not able to pinpoint where the
heaviest rain sets up, some locations could receive a couple of
inches in additional to gustier winds and cloud-to-ground
lightning in stronger storms.

Due to increased cloud coverage, daytime highs are likely to run
below average, maximizing in the lower to mid 90s Sunday and
mostly 80s on Monday. Near average overnight lows continue,
falling into the 70s. Highs in the mid 80s and lows near 80
degrees continue along, and near, the coast. Most of the CWA can
expect a minor (level 1/4) heat risk though populated areas across
the RGV and SPI could experience a moderate (level 2/4) risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The bulk of the moisture associated with TD Two is expected to move
onshore Mexico by Monday night. However, additional surges of
tropical moisture are anticipated to keep PWAT`s and PoP`s elevated
into the middle of next week, with a low to medium (20-50%) chance
by Tuesday afternoon and a 20-30% chance by Wednesday afternoon.
Following, PoP`s decrease from a low (20%) chance Thursday afternoon
to less than a 15% Friday through Sunday.

High temperatures are expected to maximize in the upper 80s to lower
90s continue Tuesday and Wednesday. As moisture decreases and
skies clear further into Thursday and beyond, highs rise back into
the 90s across inland deep south Texas, with mid to upper 90s
(even 100`s for Zapata County) possible by next Saturday and
Sunday. Near average overnight lows continue, falling into the
70s. Highs in the mid 80s and lows near 80 degrees continue along,
and near, the coast. A minor heat risk continues for most of the
region Tuesday and Wednesday, but then moderate heat risks expand
daily to cover most the RGV, the coastal counties and eastern
half of the northern ranchlands by Friday as daily afternoon heat
indices of 105-110 degrees return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions continue throughout tonight and east-southeasterly
winds (gusting to around 20-25 knots) continue this evening,
settling down beyond sunset. There is a chance for a brief shower
or two this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the 00Z TAF package and minimal chances are expected overnight.
PROB30`s have been introduced beginning in the early morning and
morning hours at KBRO and KHRL, respectively, as well as for all
sites by 18 Z Sunday as passing showers and thunderstorms extend
across the Rio Grande Valley from a Tropical Depression in the Bay
of Campeche. MVFR conditions, heavy rain, frequent lightning and
stronger gusts are possible in the strongest thunderstorms.
Otherwise, southeasterly winds continue of similar magnitude as
today by the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

NHC continues to monitor Tropical Depression (TD) Two as it moves
over the Bay of Campeche, forecast to move ashore eastern Mexico
Sunday night as a tropical storm. Meanwhile, favorable conditions
continue tonight with moderate southeasterly winds and slight to
moderate (2-3 feet) seas. Swell originating from TD Two is
expected to result in Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions across the southern offshore Gulf Waters (0-60 nm)
Sunday afternoon into Monday as seas rise to 5 to 6 feet.
Additionally, multiple rounds of gusty winds, heavy rain and
frequent lightning are anticipated through Tuesday. Otherwise,
mostly moderate southeasterly winds prevail through the period and
2-4 foot seas return throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoP`s
decreasing further Thursday and into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  90  77  89 /  30  70  40  70
HARLINGEN               75  91  74  89 /  20  60  30  70
MCALLEN                 78  94  76  90 /  10  60  20  70
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  92  75  87 /   0  50  10  70
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  78  86 /  40  70  40  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  76  89 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish