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000
FXUS64 KBRO 100843
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LEAD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST...COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...HAS LED TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE
BEST DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR AREA AND SHOULD BE THE CASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THIS WILL PLACE THE
GREATEST AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE 14-20Z TO SHOW THE LULL THEN BUMPED
BACK UP TO CATEGORICAL HWY 281 EASTWARD AFT 20Z. HIGHS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE MUCH TODAY SO LEFT MID 50S AREAWIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...DOWNGLIDE COMMENCES
ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. POP CHANCES
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH THE BULK OF THE
CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...BUMPED LOWS UP A LITTLE BIT...EXPECT LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY DAYS END....

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AS WE APPROACH THE
SPRING EQUINOX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE 500MB FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MAKING FOR A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEN MODELS DIVERGE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY LOWERING CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE PACKAGE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO PASS
TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THE LIFT AND RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF
SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOME LINGER RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF NICELY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS SURGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND DRY WITH ALL THE MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST WITH TUESDAY`S TROUGH. HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL FEATURE SOME
WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DECENT GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BETWEEN A
1030MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH WILL BE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE RGV. THIS SETS UP A CHILLY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPS TO FALL AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.

NEAR PERFECT DAY THURSDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE RIDGE HEADS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
COMMENCING. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED TRENDING WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASING AMPLIFIED.
INITIALLY THIS WILL WARM US UP EVEN MORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN OUT WEST. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE NEXT TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST
MAINTAINS THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
ROOM FOR FINE TUNING AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL RULE TODAY WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE WINDS AND
SLOWLY FALLING SEAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL END.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A ROUGH
MARINE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AROUND NOON. NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS TO QUICKLY INCREASE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL
LOOKING LIKELY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AS FAST AS THEY
DEVELOPED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE EDGING EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  55  72  60 /  80  70  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          58  54  75  59 /  80  70  10  10
HARLINGEN            58  54  78  58 /  80  70  10  10
MCALLEN              58  54  83  60 /  80  50   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  52  83  60 /  60  40   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   60  55  68  61 /  80  70  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
CAMPBEL...GRAPHICS/PSU