Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 100541 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The 00z BRO sounding shows a pretty moist layer
extending from around 700 mb down to near the surface. The latest
forecast NAM soundings maintain this saturated layer throughout
the overnight hours into Saturday. So far tonight the surface obs
from around the RGV indicate that ceilings remain at MVFR/VFR
levels. Expect the ceilings to degrade back down to near IFR
levels later tonight into early Saturday as the nocturnal low
level inversion strenthens and some weak surface troffing develops
near the coastline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...The 00z BRO sounding shows a pretty moist layer
extending from around 700 mb down to near the surface. The latest
forecast NAM soundings maintain this saturated layer throughout
the overnight hours into Saturday. So far this evening the surface
obs from around the RGV indicates that ceilings have improved to
MVFR/VFR levels this evening. Expect the ceilings to degrade down
to near IFR levels later tonight into early Saturday as the
nocturnal low level inversion strenthens. The ceilings may improve
back up to MVFR levels once again tomorrow as the afternoon high
temps moderate allowing for some better low level mixing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Moderate to breezy
north to northwest winds and cloudy skies prevail across Deep
South Texas this afternoon as relatively shallow, cool high
pressure prevails over the area. Temperatures will remain steady
in the 40s for the rest of the afternoon into this evening. Tidal
water run up to near the dunes is expected through early this
evening courtesy of east- northeast swells. Tidal measurements are
running about one foot above predicted. A coastal flood statement
is in effect until 6 pm this evening.

Low temperatures tonight will remain generally in the low to mid
40s, with a few upper 30s possible across the ranchlands, under
cloudy skies. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible near
the coast tonight. The development of a coastal trough Saturday into
Saturday night and increasing moisture should support isolated to
scattered showers near the coast. High temperatures Saturday will
recover into the 50s and lower 60s due to the weak onshore flow. Low
temperatures Saturday night will remain in the 50s to around 60.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Fairly good model agreement
early in the period, but solutions vary from model to model and
and model run to model run late in the period resulting in a
continued low confidence forecast for the latter half of the week.

By Sunday southerly flow has been reestablished across the CWA as
high pressure gets pushed east, bringing in low level moisture and
warmer temps. Above normal temperatures are expected once again,
with highs well into the 70s and lower 80s for the the first half
of the week.

Moving into Wednesday through Friday, forecast confidence is low.
12Z GFS continues to show a shallow cold front moving across the
CWA during the day Thursday, while the 12Z ECMWF solution is now
slower with the front and keeps the front north of the Rio Grande
Valley. At this point, have opted to continue using a model blend,
bringing the front through Thursday.

MARINE (Now through Saturday night): Buoy 42020 reported north
winds around 20 knots gusting to around 27 knots with seas
slightly over 10.2 feet with a period of 9 seconds at 03 CST/09
UTC. Moderate to strong northwest to north winds will continue
across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through this afternoon. A
BROWNSVILLE TXSmall Craft Advisory is in effect through 6 pm for
the Laguna Madre and will likely be allowed to expire as winds
drop below advisory criteria. North winds will veer to northeast
and then east through the period as surface high pressure moves
east, and as a weak surface trough develops along the Texas coast.
Wave heights on the Gulf will remain above criteria tonight into
Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Conditions improve across the lower Texas
coastal waters the latter half of the weekend and into early next
week, as surface high pressure weakens. Light to moderate
southerly winds will prevail and wave heights will subside.
Overall, fairly quiet marine conditions expected through the
period with SCEC and SCA conditions unlikely.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...60
Long Term...64


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