Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 282340
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING RIGHT NOW...WITH MVFR EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FIRING OVER THE NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE THREE MAJOR AERODROMES TONIGHT. VFR WILL RESUME
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR POPS.

THE 500MB TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT
THE LATEST NAM AND THE 18Z HRRR BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WEST...ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF AREA ON FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TONIGHT...AND A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WIDE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD SUNDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING
SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND REACHING THE TX COAST LINE SUNDAY BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH TX WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE CLOSED 500MB
LOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALLOWS SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL INTERACT WITH BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON LAGUNA MADRE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
FOR STRONGER WINDS. A MODERATE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONDITIONS SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT
REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 51 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER
FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND
EXPECTED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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