Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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883
FXUS64 KBRO 122124
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  73  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  75  59  82 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  76  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              57  80  58  85 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      56  80  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  70  62  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...60



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