Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 221758 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1258 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION..Scattered CU clouds have filled in over areas along the
coast and are expected to fill in over the Mid to Upper Valley as
a cold front approach late this afternoon. The front is currently
stretched across South Texas and is steadily moving south. The
front will move into the Northern Ranchlands late this afternoon,
with the FROPA expected between 02Z to 03Z for the TAF locations.
In the meantime, some small chances remain in place for VCSH
ahead of the front with winds backing to the east through the
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, however the mid
level remain dry and capped. Somewhat better precip chances for
the TAF sites will be between 06Z to 12Z with the 850mb front,
with VCSH or VCTS. Cigs will fall to MVFR values with the FROPA.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate a
few low clouds across the CWA this morning. Ceilings were near
1100ft at KHBV. Visibilities were near 4SM with fog at KBKS.
Expect MVFR conditions to develop this morning as low level
moisture increases ahead of a cold front moving through central
Texas. VFR conditions should prevail late this morning into the
afternoon as the front moves into the northern CWA late this
afternoon. MVFR conditions will develop this evening as moisture
pools across the area as the cold front moves through the lower
Rio Grande valley tonight. Elevated convection will develop in the
wake of the front tonight as well.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb low/trough across the
southern plains today will bring a cold front across north central
Texas this morning through the CWA late this afternoon into early
this evening. Low to mid level moisture will increase across
south TX this afternoon and isolated showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the front as it moves southward. Elevated
convection will develop in the wake of the front tonight as
moisture aloft increases across northeast Mexico into deep south
TX this evening. Will mention scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms tonight as the 500mb trough axis moves across east
TX. Drier and cooler air will filter into the area late tonight
into Sunday bringing an end to rain chances. Above normal
temperatures this afternoon will be below normal tonight and
Sunday as a result.
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): One final gasp of
Springtime weather Tuesday night, with mild lows in the 50s.
Surface ridge remains just offshore through the week, keeping
winds modest from the southeast. Models continue to show attempts
of the dryline to move into the western valley Wednesday through
Friday, so highs out west will jump into the upper 90s and low
100s each afternoon. Models finally show an attempt at a pattern
change for the weekend, with a large-scale trough sweeping across
the country, bringing a cold front across Texas on Saturday.
Initial thoughts are the front will have limited moisture to work
with, so rain chances will remain low for the weekend.
Now through Sunday: Seas were near 4 feet with south winds near
18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters today before a cold front moves
through the coastal waters late this afternoon into early this
evening. Will go ahead and issue small craft advisories for the
Laguna Madre and offshore waters for tonight as strong northeast
to north winds develop with high pressure building in the wake of
the front. The pressure gradient will remain strong across the
western Gulf of Mexico Sunday but winds and seas will diminish Sun
afternoon as high pressure settles across the lower Texas coast.
Monday through Wednesday: Much more tranquil marine conditions to
start the week, with light southerly winds and seas around 2 feet
Monday and Tuesday. The gradient strengthens by midweek due to a
strong system moving across Oklahoma. Southerly winds will
increase to around 20 knots, which will push wave heights up to 5
to 7 feet for the Gulf.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM
CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
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