Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 182359 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
559 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mainly MVFR ceilings expected through late this
evening. Rain chances increase tonight and Thursday morning as an
upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Brownsville
radar currently shows some activity beginning to develop across
the western portions of Deep South Texas and northern Mexico. IFR
conditions should develop late tonight through Thursday morning
due to low clouds and visibilities. Conditions will gradually
improve from west to east late Thursday morning into the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): A 500mb low pressure
system is currently located over the Four Corners region and will
gradually move eastward across the Central Plains through Thursday.
At the surface a cold front is located off the Lower Texas Coast,
which moved through Deep South Texas earlier this morning. Any
shower or thunderstorm activity has been focused around the
boundary offshore, so POPs have been lowered across the land areas
for this evening to just isolated. Tonight, rain chances increase
with another surge of deep moisture moving northward across the
area and should combine with enough lift along the 500mb trough
axis. The activity will likely be elevated behind the near-
stationary boundary off the coast enough to produce some isolated
thunderstorms. After the trough axis moves through on Thursday,
rain chances essentially diminish by the early afternoon with
clearing skies from west to east. If skies clear early enough in
the day, temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s, which is
still several degrees above normal for mid- January.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Really just need to focus on
Saturday and Sunday for significant weather in the long term. Light,
downsloping west winds will maintain a dry air flow across the area,
resulting in very warm weather with high temperatures nearing record
values. Hedging slightly above a model blend, high temperature fcst.
values of 86/88/89 for BRO/HRL/MFE will bump up against record highs
of 90/87/91, respectively.

A deep, southern plains storm system moving across the Tex panhandle
and Oklahoma Saturday night into Sunday, and then dipping into the
ArkLaTex area, will trail a dry front that will impact the RGV and
deep South Texas Sunday. Northwest winds will increase Saturday
night after midnight, reaching wind advisory criteria by midmorning
for virtually all of the CWA, lasting through the day.

FIRE WEATHER: Red flag conditions could develop Sunday behind a
strong, dry front moving throuhg the area. Cured fuels will combine
with relative humifity values decreasing into the teens for the
western two-thirds of the CWA, along with robust northwest winds,
including 20 ft winds above 15 mph from midmorning through the

MARINE: A cold front moved offshore earlier this morning and has
nearly stalled over the far offshore Gulf waters this afternoon.
Winds behind the front have shifted to the west and northwest at
around 10 knots. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm
will continue through the evening hours with additional rain
chances on Thursday. Winds will become light and variable tonight
with seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet through Friday morning.

Friday through Monday night: Light to moderate southeast to south
winds and low to moderate seas will prevail Friday through early
Sunday morning when a cold front will bring strong northwest winds
to the marine areas. Small craft advisory conditions will develop
over the Gulf Waters a few hours before dawn, with gale force gusts
possible across the offshore waters by early after sunrise. A brief
period of gale force gusts will be possible across the nearshore
waters as well. The Laguna should stay subgale. Wave heights off
shore may build to 12 feet Sunday. Winds will diminish after sundwon
Sunday, dropping below advisory criteria overnight, but wave heights
will lag behind, with heights enough to sustain advisory conditions
across portions of the Gulf through Monday morning.




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