Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
407 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday):
A 500mb low will develop across northwest Mexico today as the
main energy associated with the 500mb trough across the west-
central United States moves into the north- central U.S. this
afternoon. At the surface...a weak cold front will move across
northwest TX today. Low to mid level moisture will continue to
stream northward across northeast Mexico into west TX ahead of the
developing 500mb low. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across portions of southwest TX into west- central TX as
well as across the northwest Gulf of Mexico towards the coastal
bend today. This will leave most of the CWA in a donut hole with
most of the rainfall to the northwest and northeast of the area
today through this evening. Rain chances will increase across
western portions of deep south TX late tonight into Monday as the
500mb low across northwest Mexico and the 500mb trough moving
eastward across the north central U.S. tonight bring the weak
frontal boundary slowly southward across central and south central
TX. Will adjust pops slightly higher west and slightly lower east
tonight into Monday and mention heavy rainfall with thunderstorms
Monday as moisture continues to pool along and ahead of the weak
cold front across south TX.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday):
Starting Monday night, the cold front will be finally arriving
across Deep South Texas, bringing along a substantial focusing
mechanism. Ample moisture will be available for the region, with
PW values well above 2 inches and no discernible dry air in the
column. This will bring about a continued very good chance for
rainfall Monday Night and Tuesday. With the moist sounding noted,
have added threat for heavy rainfall to the overall forecast. With
the front slowing considerably as it crosses the region, rain
chances will continue into Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Models
finally show some dry air aloft shifting in from the north
Thursday morning, which will let up on the rain chances,
especially for the northern ranchlands. This drier air will
continue to build and force moisture back to the south through the
rest of the week into the weekend, bringing an end to the rainfall
chances. Temperatures will be held in check considerably this
week, with highs not reaching the 90s Tuesday or Wednesday, and
only a slow recovery through the rest of the week.


Today through Monday...Seas were near 4 feet with south
winds near 18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with
surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and a weak cold
front moving through northwest Texas this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
morning will continue to develop and move towards the coastal bend
but some of these showers and storms will move across the offshore
waters of the lower TX coast. Winds will back to the east to
southeast tonight and back to the east and diminish Monday as the
frontal boundary moves slowly southward across central TX tonight
and south-central TX Monday afternoon. Light to moderate east winds
will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday as a
result. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the coastal waters today through Monday.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  78  91  77 /  30  30  50  80
BROWNSVILLE          93  77  92  76 /  30  30  50  80
HARLINGEN            96  75  92  74 /  30  30  60  70
MCALLEN              98  78  92  75 /  30  30  60  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78  92  73 /  30  40  60  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  86  79 /  40  40  50  80




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