Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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347
FXUS64 KBRO 051147 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
547 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
MORNING. A LAYER OF STRATUS CUMULUS IS SEEN INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SLOWLY SPREADING WEST. THE CEILING LEVEL OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3500-4000 FEET BUT COULD BRIEFLY
ARRIVE AT THE HIGHER END OF MVFR AROUND 3000 FEET. SCT-BKN TO
OCCASIONALLY OVC VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CIGS TO LOWER IN THE MVFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 6 AM SATURDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE HIGHLIGHTING A VERY SHORT WAVE LENGTH PERIOD BETWEEN MID
LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES. YESTERDAY`S RIDGE ALREADY PASSING TO EAST
AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SURFACE WIND TURNED
EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL VEER SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNRISE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING STRATUS CUMULUS INCREASING AND SPREADING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A WELL DEFINE
DEMARCATION LINE. THE CURRENT SPREAD AND WESTERN MOVEMENT COULD HAVE
THESE CLOUDS APPROACHING THE COAST BY SUNRISE AND SPREADING INTO THE
RGV THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY NOON. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TODAY`S HIGHS AND
HAVE GONE LOWER OR TRENDED WITH THE COOLER NAM. THE MOISTURE DOES
NOT GET THAT DEEP AND CONTENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TO PRODUCE
ANY MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

THE BIG DEAL WITH THIS FRONT IS THE DRY AIR THAT IS EXPECTED TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SINGLE DIGIT AND LOWER TEEN
DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THIS
DRIER AIR IS TO BE DIRECTED SOUTHEAST. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND HAVE TRENDED ON THE DRIER SIDE. NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT DEVELOPING WHICH
COMBINE WITH THE CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. WILL GO AND ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO COVER THIS
INCREASED RISK. IT IS NOT ADVISED TO DO ANY BURNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS PRODUCING ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL FRIDAY MORNING
BUT WILL SHOW A SLIGHT FALL A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BUT
RECOVER QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 70S AS THE VERY DRY AIR HEATS UP WITH
FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY TRANQUIL
PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE REGION DOMINATED
BY HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST. STACKED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MN WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THRU
TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT
WILL MEAN A DRY PASSAGE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND DAWN MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER TYPE CONCERNS MONDAY...AS RH
VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT AREAWIDE...BUT 20FT WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MINIMUM RH VALUES
REACHING 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS BOTH DAYS. H5 RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEK...FURTHER LIMITING SKIES...BUT ALSO
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES SO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 80S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS HAVE TURNED EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEAST AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WINDS DIMINISH.
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE GULF WATERS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH EXERCISE CAUTION ANTICIPATED FOR THE LAGUNA AS THE
NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
DAWN MONDAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH
SEAS JUMPING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO FALL BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH SEAS RELAXING
TO 3 FEET OR LESS. WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING FOR ALL AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAPIDLY LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT
COMBINE PRODUCING ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO RANGE FROM 12-18 PERCENT WEST OF 69C AND 20-35 PERCENT
EAST OF 69C WITH WINDS BEING THE UNCERTAIN FACTOR. AT THIS TIME
NORTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 12-18 MPH
WHICH IS JUST ON THE CUSP OF A RED FLAG WARNING WHEN COMBINING WITH
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO COVER THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  51  69  47 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          68  50  71  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            69  48  72  42 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              70  50  73  43 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  48  71  39 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   65  55  67  54 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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