Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 271958
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE DESERT
SW AND AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT
THE WORK WEEK WILL WRAP UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE VALLEY WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR
THOSE AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT 20 FT WINDS
STAY BELOW CRITERIA FOR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...H5 RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTH MEXICO...ALONG WITH DEEP DRY AIR...WILL
SUPPORT FINE WEATHER SATURDAY. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKNESS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE WEST GULF WITH A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD AT THE SURFACE. IT
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL FLAIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON EACH DAY...MOVING NORTH DURING THE DAY.
SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY...HENCE A REVIVAL OF SOME POPS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLIDES WEST AND MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST POPS LOCALLY. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE...AS A TROUGH OR
EVEN CLOSED LOW...WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS COMPARED TO THE
GENERAL HEIGHT FIELD OVER TEXAS AND BEYOND...BUT WILL SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE GULF AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN WEST INTO THE MID VALLEY ON AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS SUNDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE NORTH AND WEST GULF...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A
MOISTER...MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  94  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            69  97  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              72  99  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69 100  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  89  76  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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