Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS64 KBRO 270528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW CU
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AROUND DAWN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15G25KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...AROUND 6 KNOTS...AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS. HOWEVER...PASSING STRATUS MAY BRIEFLY
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS. WILL NOT MENTION A TEMPO AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BY MID MORNING RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS A LITTLE OVER 20 KNOTS AT ALL TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH A S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AND BECOME NEARLY ZONAL
BY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE TAIL END ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-25MPH. DUE TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS...FOG IS NOT A BIG CONCERN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
DIG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE RGV ON THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RGV FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES WITH THE APPROACH AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE MILD COLD FRONT REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED BOTH IN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SOME SLGT CHC POPS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER THE 500 MB TROUGH CLEARS
THE STATE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE QUICKLY REBUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY LIMITED CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA TO ALLOW
ONLY A SUBTLE DECREASE IN OVERALL TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE
AFTERNOON TEMPS ELEVATED DUE TO PRETTY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
EFFECTS. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 BOTH IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS AND OVERALL
MOISTURE VALUES. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
AND POPS ARE PRETTY DECENT ALSO. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
RESULT...WITH A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS MONDAY NIGHT. SCEC MAY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PGF WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SE-NE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY BENIGN BAY AND GULF
CONDITIONS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.