Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 270938
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Brownsville radar shows some very
isolated streamer showers across portions of the lower Texas Gulf
waters this morning. Water vapor imagery shows a mid to upper level
ridge centered over the mid Atlantic states, a 500 mb low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a weak TUTT low overhead. Also, a
large plume of deep tropical moisture was noted on water vapor
imagery over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Brownsville sounding
data from Thursday evening showed a precipitable water value of 1.76
inches.

The combination lighter winds, limited moisture, and day time
heating should support isolated sea breeze convection this
afternoon. High temperatures today and Sunday will be slightly above
normal with heat index readings generally between 103 to 108 degrees
this afternoon. Light winds are expected tonight with low
temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s. Ample moisture and
instability from weak low pressure aloft will allow isolated to
scattered coastal convection to develop tonight and Sunday across
the lower Texas Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered sea breeze
activity is expected again across the deep south Texas on Sunday
with deeper moisture remaining mainly north of the area.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): The first sustained
period of rainfall in weeks still appears on track for a majority
of the long term portion of the forecast. Closed 500 mb low
pressure initially over the Middle Texas Coast will slowly move
south-southwest towards and over the BRO CWFA. Coupled with deep
tropical moisture and daytime heating, mainly scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected. The best opportunity for rainfall
(50 percent) will occur on Monday through Wednesday, and locally
heavy rainfall has been included in the official forecast for this
time period due to the anticipated deeper tropical moisture. Drier
weather, but still isolated convection, is forecast for Friday as
the closed 500 mb low dissipates and mid-level high pressure once
again resumes. With significant cloudiness in place and the
opportunity for rainfall each day, daytime high and overnight low
temperatures are expected to be near normal for most of the long
term forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 6 knots gusting to near 8 knots with seas around 1.6
feet with a period of 6 seconds at 300 AM CDT/08 UTC. Broad high
pressure across the southeastern United States will maintain a
weak gradient through the forecast period. Light onshore flow and
low seas expected today through Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop at times across the coastal
waters due to weak low pressure aloft.

Sunday Night through Friday: A weak pressure gradient will produce
light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower
Texas Coast throughout the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution
and Small Craft Advisory will not be needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          97  76  97  76 /  20  10  30  30
HARLINGEN            99  75  99  76 /  20  10  30  30
MCALLEN             101  77 101  79 /  20  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  88  78 /  20  10  30  30
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Birchfield-65


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