Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281140 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
a mix of low clouds and patchy fog across portions of the CWA this
morning. In addition...radar images indicated isolated showers
developing offshore the Mexican coast. Expect MVFR to IFR
conditions to continue through 15Z before improving to VFR
conditions as ceilings and visibilities improves as diurnal
heating allows low clouds/fog to lift and burn off as mixing
increases across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday):

Synopsis...A flat 500mb shortwave ridge will prevail across the
state today as the 500mb shortwave trough across the central plains
moves eastward this afternoon. At the surface...high pressure across
the southeast United States and surface low pressure along a
stationary frontal boundary draped from Iowa to the Texas panhandle
will continue to bring warm and moist air across the western Gulf
of Mexico northward into central and east TX today through tonight.

Today through Sunday...The main impacts will continue to be the warm
and humid conditions across the CWA today and Sunday as low to mid
level moisture increases across northeast Mexico into southwest
Texas this afternoon...and the threat of high risk rip currents
along the lower TX coast today and tonight as long period southeast
to east-southeast swells offshore continue to provide hazardous
conditions for poor swimmers who enter the water and swim offshore
into the surf. Will go ahead and extend the rip current statement
for the coastal counties of the CWA through tonight as large numbers
of people continue to visit South Padre Island for the rest of the
Memorial Day weekend. A weak 500mb shortwave is expected to move
across portions of west and southwest TX tonight and this will
provide enough instability aloft for showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the Mexican plateau northward into southwest TX
tonight and some of this convection may move into the extreme
western portions of the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Otherwise...the southwest flow aloft today and tonight will veer to
the west Sunday providing an increase in subsidence across the Rio
Grande valley and northern ranchlands.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Weak upper level ridge
will remain almost stationary over the South Texas region Sun
night through mid week. Broad high pressure at the surface over
the Northern Gulf Coast will maintain a persistent SE to E flow
across Deep South Texas which is surging tropical low level
moisture to the north along and East of the Sierra Madre. Latest
cross sections near the RGV shows dry pocket in the mid layers
while keeping much of the higher RH concentration near the surface
Monday and Tuesday. Several perturbations within the upper flow
will enhance the shower activity each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday. The chance of showers will favor more the western and
northern counties with less chances near the coast. A cut off low
pressure which becomes a weak trough will be moving across the cwa
by Friday. This trough will bring a front across the region
filtering in much drier air behind the front as the ridge builds
across the west. Both GFS/ECMWF show fairly a good agreement to
the arrival of the front Thursday. Models show some type of MCS
developing but still early to determine if there is the potential
for this to develop. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s
across much of the cwa through the weekend and into early next
week. Heights begin to lower by the end of the week with the
potential for rain increasing as the front boundary moves near the
area Thursday. Expect high temperatures to remain in the mid to
upper 80s and near 90s near the Rio Grande through the following
weekend.

MARINE:/Today through Sunday/...Seas were near 6 feet with
southeast winds near 15 knots at buoy020 early this morning.
Moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters
today with surface high pressure across the northeast Gulf of Mexico
and surface low pressure across west Texas this afternoon. Will word
SCEC for the offshore waters today as seas continue to remain
relatively high with the persistent southeast fetch of winds across
the western Gulf. The pressure gradient will increase slightly
across the lower Texas coast tonight and small craft advisories may
be needed for the offshore waters as a result. Moderate to strong
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight and
diminish slightly...mainly offshore the lower TX coast on Sunday.

Sunday night through Saturday/...Elevated winds and seas will
prevail for the Gulf waters with SCEC conditions possible due to
tight pressure gradient along Deep South Texas. Gradient begins to
relax into next week with the arrival of the next front shifting
winds north close to Thursday. Winds and seas remain in the 2 to 4
feet.
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ251-256-257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

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