Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221153 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
653 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...IR Satl imagery and surface obs indicates a ragged area
of low sc decks over much of the BRO cwa. Expect this low cld
deck to persist over the rgv airports over the next few hours
resulting in some mvfr ceilings through the early morning. Some
light fog has formed near the HRL area during the past hour
resulting in localized ifr/lifr conditions there. Daytime heating
and increasing low level mixture later this morning will likely
mix out the low ceilings and patchy fog allowing for a return of
vfr conditions. Enough low level moisture will then persist into
the overnight hours late in the current taf period to increase the
potential once again for nighttime low cld cover generating
mvfr/ifr conditions. Some isold sea breeze conv will be possible
later this afternoon as the daytime heating increases and the atms
destabilizes. However do not expect enough conv coverage today to
justify a mention in the current taf set.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The latest radar mosaic from
around center and south TX shows pretty quiet conditions over the
region. The 00z bro sounding has stabilized and dried out a bit in
comparison to last night`s sounding. However the 00z sounding still
shows pretty decent CAPE and PWAT values in place tonight. 500 mb
ridging will build steadily over the south central plains states and
northern mexico increasing subsidence throughout the short term.
This should limit the potential for widespread conv today and
tomorrow. However will leave 10 to 20% pops in place through today
and tomorrow to account for any diurnally driven conv that could
develop. The NAM guidance is the wettest of the three short term
model sets with the GFS and ECMWF coming in much drier. Since the
NAM is the outlier and considering the strength of the 500 mb
ridging building over the region will go closer to the drier

Will go closer to the warmer side of temp guidance through today
and Monday due to the increasing 1000-500 mb thicknesses.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The center of 500 mb
high pressure over central Mexico will produce an axis of this
ridge over the eastern half of Texas Monday night through
Wednesday, producing dry weather within Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. The 500 mb high pressure center will be
suppressed south, with the ridge axis shifting east before
dissolving, as a deep 500 mb trough moves through the western
United States Wednesday night through Friday night. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will develop within the BRO CWFA as the
mid-level flow over this region becomes more out of the southwest.
Given that much of the convection may originate over the higher
terrain of neighboring Mexico before advecting into Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, successive shifts may need to
watch for the potential of severe weather. Drier weather may
return for Saturday as the 500 mb ridge returns to the forecast
area. Above normal temperatures are likely through the entire
long term forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Monday): The surface PGF will strengthen a
bit throughout today and Monday as a surface frontal system
strengthens over the central plains states. This may edge the marine
conditions along the lower TX coastline up closed to SCEC criteria
on Monday. However no SCA conditions expected throughout the short

Monday night through Saturday: A relatively tight pressure gradient
is anticipated throughout the forecast period with high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with low pressure over northern
Mexico and the Central Plains. Small Craft Exercise Caution and
Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed for the Lower Texas
coastal waters to account for the strong winds and rough seas.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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