Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 240928
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
428 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TRUNDLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HAS PROMPTED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WEATHER CATEGORIZATION
FROM SPC. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...CONFIRMING THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING...BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT RADAR ALSO SHOWS MORE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTH...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SOME CONVECTION
WILL NOT KEEP COMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW SOME QPF
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD END THIS EVENING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR THE MARINE
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE INTRUSION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COMBINES WITH
DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH NO OTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGES OR SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO HIGH END MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. HIGH END
MODERATE WINDS WILL REPEAT ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE
AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  74  86  74 /  60  20  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  74  87  74 /  70  20   0   0
HARLINGEN            85  73  91  74 /  60  20   0   0
MCALLEN              89  73  94  74 /  30  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  72  98  73 /  40  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  74  82  73 /  70  20  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...MILLER-54
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66



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