Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 280903
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  78  94  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  96  79 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           100  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  76 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  80  89  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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