Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 041740
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE VALLEY. PW
VALUE INFERRED FROM GOES IMAGERY SHOW VALUES ALREADY BELOW 1.5
INCHES MOVING INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ENDING TODAY. THE DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW 100S
FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 104 AT KMFE TODAY WOULD TIE A RECORD SET IN 2009.
KBRO AND KHRL RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED OTHERWISE.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY
ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY TO THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX SATURDAY
WITH THE AXIS ANCHORING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS
INDICATED TO DECREASE WITH TIME WITH MEAN RH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE 04/00Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS DEEP STX FRIDAY AND WITH LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SQUASHED. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND
MOISTURE CHARTS ARE EVEN DRIER WITH THIS MODEL. LOOKING AT THE
MEXMOS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ALL POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. SO NO INLAND RAIN WILL BE INDICATED DURING
THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THU-SUN AS A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE OR THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NE MEXICO COMBINING WITH THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF WATERS. EXPECT A RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY AFTERNOONS WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING MID TO UPPER
90S LOWER VALLEY AND NEAR 100 TO WELL OVER THE CENTURY MARK MID TO
UPPER VALLEY AS WELL AS WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE RANGE WITHIN THE 22-25 DEGREE RANGE WHICH CONCURS WITH
THE HOT TO VERY HOT GUIDANCE VALUES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF INTERACTS WITH BUILDING HEAT LOW TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 15KTS FOR THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH
LAGUNA WINDS REACHING 15 TO 20. MARINERS ARE URGED CAUTION ON THE
LAGUNA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE REACHED 3 FEET OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. LAGUNA WATERS WILL HAVE A MODERATE CHOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE NEARLY SMOOTH OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OF NE MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE LAGUNA MAY WARRANT EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON. ON THE GULF THE MODERATE WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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