Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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810
FXUS64 KBRO 020335 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1035 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...NO SENSE IN FIGHTING REALITY OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOWS
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT LEAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THROUGH THE RANCHLANDS...WELL CAPPED. LIMITED WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE SIERRA MADRE HAS GENERALLY FAILED TO LAUNCH...AND ARRIVAL OF
00Z NAM SUPPORTS IDEA OF NO RAIN PRIOR TO 12Z FOR THE POPULATED RGV
WITH CAP HOLDING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DISORGANIZED EVEN AS
SURFACE FRONT "OOZES" THROUGH. THEREFORE...REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR THE RANCHLANDS AND A SLIVER OF ZAPATA...AND
SILENT 10 FOR THE RGV POPULATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THEREAFTER...I`M QUICKLY LOSING CONFIDENCE THAT WE`LL HEAR MUCH THUNDER/SEE
ANY LIGHTNING AT ALL ON MONDAY. NAM-12 00Z RUN CAME AROUND TO THE
NORTHERLY SHIFT BEFORE 12Z FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY AND SEEON
AFTER ELSEWHERE...WITH EVENT A TILT TOWARD SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT PICK UP IN EARNEST AS THE INVERSION FILLS WITH FALL-LIKE LOW
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE 12Z-
15Z PERIOD AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE
MID/UPPER VALLEY AND PERHAPS THROUGH 18Z FOR THE LOWER VALLEY.
THAT SAID...GUIDANCE TSTM POPS ON THE RECENTLY ARRIVED NAM-12
DON`T EVEN CRACK 20 PERCENT. BY 18Z AND BEYOND ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ARE CONFINED ABOVE 700 MB...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED TO AREA
BEING IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF WESTERLY 250 MB JET. SO...WHILE CAN`T
RULE OUT A ROGUE RUMBLE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACT WILL BE
SHOWERS...AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
52/BSG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  81  69  77 /  10  40  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  83  68  78 /  10  40  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  81  67  79 /  10  40  30  20
MCALLEN              75  80  66  80 /  10  40  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  76  65  80 /  20  40  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  79  71  76 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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