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000
FXUS64 KBRO 100540
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1140 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION
WHICH WILL HELP LIFT THE LOW CIGS TO MVFR. MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING 25 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE
INITIAL TAF PERIOD. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE MOIST LOWER LAYERS CONTINUE. HOWEVER THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTH MAY USHER IN ENOUGH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO
ERODE AWAY THE CEILINGS A BIT AFTER 12Z TUES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
SLOW BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR FORECAST
CEILINGS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE IF IMAGERY SHOW A VARIATION
OF LOW CLOUDS AS LOW AS 400 FEET WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN LOCATIONS
ALONG THE RIVER. LIGHT RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH FROPA AROUND 01Z.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CLOUD DECK HAVE
STRUGGLED TO RISE AND WILL LIKELY REACH A HIGH IN THE LOW 60S.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRONT WILL INCREASE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CWA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE...
MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE
RANCHLAND. LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUGGESTED. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY WITH WINDS GUSTS UP THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A FRESHENING OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK OF A
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE WINDS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER MONDAY HIGHS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TURN OFF THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. POPS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE RELEGATED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS AS SURGE EFFECTIVELY PUSHES
STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SO ANOTHER
RAW DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. WITH DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASING
TUESDAY ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS

TUESDAY NIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS RELAX WITH 850 MB WINDS SHIFTING BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AREA. THE
CLOUDS RETURNS WITH CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING OVER THE GULF WATERS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO MONDAY
NIGHT AND WITH LOWER WINDS NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AS A 500MB
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA CA. CLOUD
AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST PHASES WITH A 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND MOVES EASTWARD. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT ENHANCING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE  OVER THE GULF WATERS
WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED TO 30 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. INCLUDED A GALE WATCH
FOR TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SCA CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHEAST WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
THURSDAY SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
     170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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