105
FXUS64 KBRO 301055 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tropical Depression Barry has made landfall in Eastern Mexico, 273
miles south of Brownsville. Its remnants are bringing showers and
some thunder to the region tonight, and an increased swell is
leaving a Moderate Risk of rip currents. These showers and coastal
hazards are the only anticipated impacts to Deep South Texas from
TD Barry. While flash flooding is not anticipated, PWAT values of
2.25" from the 00Z sounding indicate plenty of moisture available
and may allow for heavy rain rates, which can lead to ponding.

Showers are likely (70-80%) with thunderstorms possible today as
moisture influx from Barry`s remnants work northward. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday,
with rain chances beginning to decrease Monday night. Rain chances
are moderate (50-60%) on Tuesday with thunderstorms possible, and
low (10-20%) Wednesday. High moisture content lead to heavy
rainfall within showers possible.

High temperatures early this week start off below normal - highs
in the 80s will not feel realized with this increase of moisture,
leaving apparent temps in the 90s to around 100 by midweek.
Seasonable low temperatures in the 70s provide little relief.

At the local beaches, increased swell from TD Barry maintains a
Moderate Risk of rip currents.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Chances of rain decrease from low (10-20%) to almost none through
the long term period. While PoPs decrease through the week,
temperatures are expected to increase as cloud cover clears and high
pressure builds over the central US. A Moderate Heat Risk is
possible late week with apparent temperatures climbing into the
triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Minor adjustments made to the previous issuance of TAFs. A TEMPO
has been retained for the possibility of convection and is based
on the HRRR model. Breezy winds today will diminish around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail over the period. Moderate
seas brought by Tropical Depression Barry will decrease to slight by
Tuesday, with generally favorable conditions for the remainder of
the period. Moderate to high chance (50-80%) of rain and
thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, decreasing to low
(10-20%) through Friday. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are
possible in any showers, along with lightning in any
thunderstorms, temporarily degrading marine conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  77  88  77 /  80  40  60  20
HARLINGEN               86  74  89  75 /  80  40  60  20
MCALLEN                 87  76  89  77 /  80  40  60  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         85  74  86  74 /  70  40  60  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  86  79 /  80  40  60  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  77  88  76 /  80  40  60  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$