Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 272057
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
257 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN OF WAA OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO ALSO START REBOUNDING AS
THE FLOW STARTS COMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX. THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WAS
STILL VERY PARCHED THIS MORNING WITH A PWAT OF 0.46 INCHES. EVEN
WITH THE RETURNING SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO ALLOW MUCH OF A POTENTIAL FOR POPS OR EVEN
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLD COVER.

THE MAV...MET AND ECMWF SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT VERSUS YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MAV IS NOT SHOWING THE COOL
BIAS THAT IT INDICATED YESTERDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE SHORT TERM TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH FEW CHANGES MADE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN TO CREEP IN TO
THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE. IT WILL BE  A
LITTLE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS RELAXING FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE RELEGATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...ENOUGH CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MERKY. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOW DECENT COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY WHICH LASTS INTO THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS WARMING WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF. LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. ECMWF IS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPLYING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL EDGE
TOWARDS THE GFS DUE TO CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF MAY
BE TRENDING TOWARDS A INCREASING ZONAL FLOW IN LATER RUNS WITH LESS
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE KEEPING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS SIDE.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A GENERAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE SE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE PGF REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL FRI
NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT MAY STRENGTHEN UP ENOUGH TO PUSH
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCEC CRIT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXERCISE CAUTION IS ALMOST CERTAIN DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND PASS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
RELAXING TO MODERATE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT RIGHT NOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  75  63  77 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          58  78  61  77 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  78  59  78 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              54  79  58  79 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  78  55  79 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  74  67  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ





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