Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 291756 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1256 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and into the
evening with mainly high clouds covering Deep South Texas and the
3 air terminals after the large overnight thunderstorm complex.
Cumulus clouds are seen forming with some thinning of the overcast
but should remain overall scattered at 3-5k feet this afternoon.
Lower clouds along with some fog may form towards sunrise Tuesday
with brief MVFR conditions. Not anticipating any organized
convection today or tonight but a brief isolated shower is
possible. Light northeast winds to return southeast Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.


.MARINE...Stronger winds from outflow from ovenight/early morning
thunderstorm complex are weakening and fanning out. winds have
dropped below SCA conditions while sea near 8 feet at Noon should
drop below 7 feet between 1 and 2 pm. Allowed the SCA to expire
but added caution wording for the offshore waters the remainder of
the day.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A stable atmosphere is expected to prevail across the
region today in the wake of overnight convection. Light north
winds expected to veer to the east and southeast later this
morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are anticipated through
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): An MCS has moved across much of
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley overnight. Brownsville
radar currently shows an intense line of convection extending from
the Gulf waters east of Kenedy county to South Padre Island to near
Brownsville. This convection is expected to move east and south of
the area around sunrise. The atmosphere is expected to stabilize in
the wake of this feature. Have significantly lower pops and QPF
values for the rest of today. However, some additional convection
will be possible later today and tonight. The combination of
abundant moisture in place and daytime heating should a chance of
rain on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal due
to the increased cloud cover and rainfall.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Unsettled weather
pattern continues through the remainder of the week. A weak cold
front meanders across south Texas through the first half of the
period, while surface high pressure remains over the Gulf of
Mexico maintaining an east to southeast onshore flow. The
combination of the boundary in the area, plenty of moisture, and
disturbances in the flow aloft will support the chance for showers
and thunderstorms, with the best shot on Wednesday. Rain chances
begin to taper off some after Wednesday, but linger in the 20 to
30 percent realm. Near normal temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday across the region. A steady warm up in temperatures
returns for the end of the week and this weekend, with diminished
rain chances and cloud cover.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42020 reported east-southeast
winds around 10 knots and seas of 4.3 feet with a period of 6
seconds at 03 CST/08 UTC. A line of thunderstorms will continue to
move east-southeast across the Gulf waters for the next few hours
and will produce heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning. A
stationary front across south central Texas will support a weak
pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast today through Tuesday.
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and low seas
expected to continue through the forecast period.

Tuesday Night through Friday Night...Fairly weak pressure gradient
will maintain light to moderate east to southeast winds and low
seas through Wednesday afternoon. Pressure gradient begins to
strengthen late Wednesday as surface high pressure over the
northern Gulf of Mexico increases winds across the lower Texas
coastal waters. Seas build in response to the strengthening flow
and small craft exercise caution to marginal small craft advisory
conditions will be possible Wednesday night into Friday.




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