Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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056
FXUS64 KBRO 300728 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
228 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The late evening convection to the west of the RGV has
dissipated leaving behind only some mid and high level debris cld
cover over the area. Recent obs from the MFE area indicated some
brief periods of MVFR conditions but expect overall VFR
ceilings/vsbys to prevail through at least the late morning hours.
Some isold sea breeze convection may form up during the afternoon
hours possibly reducing ceilings/vsbys briefly down to MVFR levels
from 18-20z. Will cover this convective potential with only some
tempo groups during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...some isolated thunderstorms still progressing
northwestward at around 15 kts late this afternoon, but am
expecting activity to completely subside by 01Z or so. VFR
conditions to then prevail overnight as winds diminish to less
than 12 knots area-wide. Southeast winds to resume by 15Z or so
and will then rise into the 15G25 kt range around 18Z. Should see
some more thunderstorms form along a sea breeze midday Saturday
that will then move inland through the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night):H5 high height centers
will be over the Desert Southwest and the Eastern Seaboard/northeast
Gulf of Mexico during the forecast period, with a mid level weakness
in between these two systems along the Texas coastline and over the
western Gulf of Mexico and extending north into the southern plains
and Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure will dominate across
the north Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, enhanced tropical moisture will
move north toward the CWFA from the Bay of Campeche tonight through
Saturday night, while a tropical wave moves across that area from
the Yucatan. Model guidance is currently not picking up on more than
isold convective activity, with the ECMWF appearing to be a skosh
higher than the NAM and GFS. Thus, most of the activity should be
marine or coastal, but some sea breeze development will be possible
again on Saturday. In the mean time, the weakness aloft will start
to fill, allowing the two height centers to begin to meet in the
middle and provide slightly more subsidence to the local area.
Hence, Saturday night convection looks a little more muted and, in
fact, local PWAT on Sunday morning appears to be a little lower than
that of Saturday morning. Otherwise, the heat will continue with
high temps on Saturday at or above the century mark west of I69E,
and with heat index values up to 110 degrees.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Persistence will be the best
forecast for the long term. 500mb ridge will become anchored over
Texas and the drying out of the mid layers well underway. As most
of the July (hot and dry)played out the beginning of August will
see no change. The forecast remains unchanged with pretty much
rain-free conditions and hot temperatures. Did not vary much from
the previous forecast with no distinct features seen to make any
adjustments to the inherited grids at least through.

There is some possible light at the end of the dry spell though.
Although this is long shot and at the end and beyond the long term
period. Both GFS and ECMWF are indicating the Central Atlantic
Tropical Wave moves into the Bay of Campeche/GOM next Friday or
Saturday. Both models seem progressive with this wave strengthening
this feature as it moves across the Yucatan and into the Gulf of
Mexico in 8-9 days. Differences show up with the placement of the
surface reflection but again this is over a week away. In any case,
if this wave survives its trip across the Atlantic and Caribbean
South Texas could see at least some increase in tropical moisture
late next week. Will be optimistic with days seven and eight
(Friday/Saturday) and show low chance pops with plenty of time to
adjust accordingly.

MARINE:Tonight through Saturday Night...High pressure centered
generally over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will support light to
moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas. A tropical wave
moving through the Yucatan today will enhance the evening trough
off the western Yucatan tonight and tomorrow night. Periods of
isolated showers and thunderstorms moving up from the south will
be possible.

(Sunday through Wednesday): No significant changes for the
coastal and marine areas with light to moderate seas and slight
seas persisting well into next week. Broad surface high pressure
to dominate much of the Gulf of Mexico with only an isolated late
night or early morning shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...60
Long Term...63



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