Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 302348 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Convection associated with seabreeze and outflow
boundaries will continue to move south and west across portions
of Cameron and Hidalgo Counties over the next couple of hours.
SHRA chances have dropped off for KBRO and KHRL...however the SHRA
will approach KMFE before shift south of the area. Meanwhile...an
upper level low just off the Southern Texas Gulf coast will
continue to generate showers and thunderstorms. These storms may
push inland later tonight and have kept VCSH at terminals. Winds
will become light and variable overnight...before becoming N-NE
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): forecast details through
the period to be driven by the movement of the mid/upper level low
currently situated over the northwest Gulf. As of early Tuesday
afternoon, isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms were present
across all of the counties in the forecast area except for Willacy
and Cameron Counties. Considerable cloudiness had developed across
much of the Rio Grande Valley and this was causing many locations to
struggle toward their convective temperatures.
For tonight, as well as the remainder of the forecast period, will
see the low over the Gulf slowly sink southward and fill/weaken. Am
expecting land-based precipitation left over from the afternoon
hours to wind down to mainly just showers, which will become much
less widespread through the night. Considerable cloudiness looks to
hang around overnight leading to partly/mostly cloudy skies. For
Wednesday, the models are calling for overcast skies forecast area-
wide, and while sufficient moisture will still be in place for
widespread precipitation, somewhat decreased daytime heating/lower
high temperatures and ever-decreasing dynamics, will lead to lower
chances of precipitation than what we saw today. Chances of
precipitation fall off to near nothing out over the far western
counties tomorrow night with only slight chances of precipitation
remaining near the coast as we progress into early Thursday.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The mid to upper low will
continue to drift south and gradually dissipate Thursday into
Thursday night. The combination of lingering moisture and
instability will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. Drier air behind the departing mid to
upper low and mid-level ridging building into region will result
in a slight chance of convection Friday and into the weekend. The
increasing sunshine and limited rain chances should allow high
temperatures to reach the triple digits, mainly along/west of
I-69C/US 281 each day.
By Sunday night and into early next week, the mid-level ridge
moves east and south to southeast flow appears to slowly set up.
Deep tropical moisture returns to deep south Texas Monday into
Tuesday.The increase in rain chances and cloud cover should bring
temperatures back to normal, with mid to upper 90s in most areas
for Labor Day.
MARINE (Now through Wednesday Night): moderate swells from the east-
northeast were causing some waves heights across the outer waters of
the lower Texas coast to rise above 4 feet, but otherwise, winds
were generally below 18 kts at the buoys and reporting sites.
Somewhat elevated swells will persist across the outer waters
through much of the forecast period as a long fetch of wind from the
east-northeast continues. At the same time, a weak surface pressure
gradient over the northwest Gulf will maintain modest winds across
the entire marine area.
Thursday through Sunday: Light to occasional moderate east to
northeast winds will prevail along the lower Texas coast through
Saturday. Light to occasional moderate southeast winds will develop
Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure builds across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Seas/swells will begin to subside on
Thursday as high pressure settles across the area.
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