Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230546

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1146 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...High pressure over the region will keep VFR
conditions through the period. A smaller temperature/dewpoint
spread is expected tonight at BRO and HRL, but winds are not
expected to become calm. Cannot rule out some patchy fog late
tonight and early Thursday morning, but confidence remains low.
Southeasterly winds have become reestablished and will increase
and become gusty by late Thursday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period as ridging aloft and surface high pressure maintain clear
skies. As high pressure shifts eastward winds will become
east to southeast this evening and tonight and increase and become
gusty during the late morning hours Thursday. Patchy ground fog
may form late tonight at the coastal sites, but confidence is low
at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Ridging aloft and
high pressure at the surface have continued to provide plenty of
subsidence throughout the entire column this afternoon across Deep
South Texas, leading to hot and dry conditions once again.
Temperatures have reached record-breaking levels at Brownsville
and McAllen, with Brownsville breaking century-old records two
days in a row. Regarding fire weather concerns, relative humidity
values have been below 15% area-wide this afternoon, but winds are
below criteria for any Red Flag Warnings. Thursday, there will be
elevated fire spread and growth concerns again with slightly
higher winds shifting to the south/southeast as a low pressure
system develops across the Central Plains. 20-foot winds will
likely be below the threshold for Red Flag Warning issuance, but
will pass on to the next shifts to update, if needed. The main
change to the forecast was a slight uptick in temperatures for
Thursday, which will put daily high temperature records in
jeopardy again.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Above normal temperatures
and generally rain-free conditions expected through the forecast
period. A weak and dry cold front will through Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The passage of the front will usher
a little cooler and drier air over the region this weekend but
temperature will remain above normal. A deep 500 mb trough will dig
over the western states early next week. This may allow another weak
cold front to move through the region late in the period. Moisture
will begin to increase on Sunday as breezy southeast winds develop.
No change to current thinking for temperatures through the period,
will continue to lean towards the warmer ECMWF numbers for highs and
a model blend for lows.

MARINE (Now through Thursday night): Light winds and low seas
will continue through the afternoon and evening across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters as high pressure slowly moves eastward. Winds
will shift back out of the south/southeast late tonight and
increase during the day on Thursday as a low pressure system in
the Central Plains tightens the pressure gradient. Seas will
eventually build in response to 3 to 4 feet by Friday morning.

Friday through Monday...A weak cold front is expected to move
through the Lower Texas Coastal waters on Friday. Moderate southerly
winds Friday morning will weaken and shift to the northwest in the
afternoon. Moderate northeast winds and building seas may reach SCEC
criteria Friday night and Saturday as surface high pressure surges
across the northern Gulf. Strong southeasterly flow will develop
Saturday night through Sunday night across the Lower Texas Gulf
waters with Small Craft Advisories becoming likely during this




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