212
FXUS66 KLOX 151026
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
326 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...14/834 PM.

Consistent weather expected for the next few days. Coastal areas
will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. In
contrast, temperatures will be above normal for interior areas,
with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.
A slight chance of showers will persist for the mountains each
afternoon through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/311 AM.

The May Grey pattern will continue through the short term. An
upper low will slowly exit the area today and NE flow aloft will
develop as it arcs around an upper west of Eureka.

Todays marine layer is about 2000 ft and notably its capping
inversion is a little weaker than it was at this time ydy.
Gradients are still strongly onshore and the push to the east
could reach 10 mb this afternoon. Low clouds cover all of the
coasts and vlys as well as the Paso Robles area. Patchy drizzle is
also likely from Malibu and points north. The NE flow aloft and
the weaker inversion may join forces to help clearing this
afternoon. The higher hgts and hopefully better clearing should
lead to 2 to 3 degrees of warming save for the LA coast where the
stronger onshore flow will result in 1 to 2 degrees of cooling. As
has been the case for the past week the csts/vlys will end up
about 6 degrees blo normal and the interior about 6 degrees above
normal. The strong onshore push will bring gusty winds to the
interior and low end advisory (45 mph) gusts to the westerly
Antelope Vly foothills.

One new thing will affect today`s weather. The NE flow that sets
up this afternoon will advect in just enough instability and
moisture to bring a slight chc of an afternoon and early evening
TSTM over the LA/VTA mtns and the Antelope vly.

A ridge will move over the state on Thursday pushing hgts up. The
clearing trend will be tricky as mdls show better clearing but
the higher hgts will lead to a stronger marine inversion which
with the strong onshore flow may well bring another afternoon of
slow to no clearing for the coastal areas. The higher hgts will
lead to a few degrees of warming.

No real changes on Friday. The weak ridge will continue as will
the night through morning low clouds and gusty afternoon winds.
Max temps will not change much from Thursday`s values.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/326 AM.

The upper ridge will push off to the east on Saturday and dry SW
flow will move over the area. Ensembles favor better clearing and
some warming, but the onshore flow remains strong and would not
be surprised if clearing was not as fast and max temps come in a
little cooler than fcst.

On Sunday and Monday a fairly high hgt upper low will approach the
area from the SW. The lift from this system will reinforce the low
cloud pattern and again low clouds will push deep into the vlys
and then only clear to the coast. Patchy drizzle will be likely in
the mornings. No real strong instability or moisture signals so
likely the only effect the low will have on convection is just
some mtn CU. Lowering hgts, deeper marine marine layer and
stronger onshore flow will bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling each
day. By Monday max temps across the csts/vlys will only be in the
mid and upper 60s while the vlys will only top out in the lower to
mid 70s. Max temps will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal across the
board.

Ensembles are not in the best of agreement for Tuesday but most
signal some sort of weak troffing. See no reason why the
relentless marine layer cloud pattern should stop. Hgts are
higher than on Monday and this should result in a little warming.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0615Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was around 3100 feet with a temperature of 16 C.

high confidence in desert TAFs.

moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. There is a 20 percent
chc of LIFR conds at any site 11Z-15Z. There is a 30 percent chc
of clearing at sites with no clearing fcst 21Z-01Z. Flight Cat
change timing may be off by +/- 90 minutes.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 15 percent chc of
BKN004 conds 11Z-15Z. There is a 20 percent chance that there
will be no clearing in the afternoon. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 90 minutes of forecast. Good confidence that
there will not be any east wind component greater than 5 kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of
BKN004 conds 11Z-15Z. Timing of flight category changes could be
+/- 90 minutes of forecast.

&&

.MARINE...15/318 AM.

Winds and seas will remain Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through at least Saturday, except for a 30-50 percent chance of
SCA level winds in the vicinity of the Channel Islands and across
the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and
evening.

There is a moderate to high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA
conditions early next week, highest beyond 10 NM offshore and in
the vicinity of the Channel Islands.

&&

.BEACHES...15/318 AM.

An increasing south-southwesterly swell with a moderate long
period will move into the coastal waters over the weekend and
into next week. This will bring a high to likely (50-60 percent)
chance of strong rip current activity and elevated surf,
especially south and southwest facing shores. There is a moderate
(30 percent) chance of high surf during this period.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall
BEACHES...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox