Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 222331
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build into the region tonight and dominate our
weather through Thanksgiving.  Tonight is expected to be one of the
coldest nights of the season given dew points in the lower to middle
20s, calm winds and clear skies.  Could see some upper teens in the
traditionally coldest locations of west Tennessee and north
Mississippi.

An unusual period of dry weather with seasonable temperatures for
most of the forecast period.  Return southerly flow on Friday will
result in a rebound in temperature, before another cold front moves
through on Saturday.  The front is expected to move through dry with
only a modest response in temperature.

The next chance for rainfall is late in the forecast period.  The
GFS and ECMWF are not in very good agreement on the orientation of
the next shortwave.  The GFS depicts a positively tilted trough,
while the ECMWF has split flow and a negatively tiled trough
ejecting into the middle of the country.  Additionally, the ECMWF is
slower with the onset of any rainfall.  The Canadian solution sides
more with the GFS and for now those solutions appear to make better
physical sense.  For now the forecast will include a risk for
rainfall days 6/7.

 Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Winds will be variable at 5 knots or less for much of the forecast
period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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