Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 251803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1203 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1121 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/


A stationary front remains located across Northeast Mississippi
this morning. As a result, clouds continue to linger across much
of the Mid-South. Although, the rain associated with the front has
shifted south, at this time, with the exception of some drizzle
in Monroe County, Mississippi. Latest HRRR shows rain spreading
back to the north this afternoon into tonight as a weak SFC low
develops along the front in Southeast Texas and moves
northeastward along the front. Will make some minor adjustments to
highs as clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s for highs. Also, raised POPS for this afternoon for much
of North Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee. Update will
be out shortly.


DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

Some light rain still lingers in North Mississippi although the
flooding rains have shifted off to the East. Rainfall totals over
the last several days have been impressive...over 7 inches across
portions of Northeast Arkansas as well as portions of North
Mississippi with widespread totals over three inches. A weak mid
level disturbance will track from South Louisiana into Central
Mississippi today. As a result precipitation is expected to surge
back to the North this afternoon and overnight. Just how far North
it makes it is in question...but rain accumulations should be
highest near the Tennessee River and Alabama state line in
Northeast Mississippi. Luckily this area has not received quite as
much rain as areas farther West. Up to one half of an inch of
rain is possible.

Monday and Tuesday should be dry with plenty of sunshine Monday.
Clouds will return from the West Tuesday with mostly cloudy
conditions expected area wide by the late afternoon hours.

Unfortunately the middle of the week looks wet. Guidance looks
very much like the system we just experienced. Strong Southwest
flow will set up with a series of disturbances tracking from East
Texas across the midsouth Tuesday night through early Thursday. A
surface low will develop in the Central Plains early Wednesday and
track across North Missouri into East Iowa by early Thursday.
Aloft...a fairly strong trough will approach the Mississippi River
obtaining a neutral tilt. Moisture may not be quite as abundant
with the midweek system as we just saw. Model dew points are
forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s instead of upper 60s...but
many of the dynamic parameters look the same. Severe thunderstorms
look possible mainly across East central Arkansas into North
Mississippi. In addition to the severe threat, much of the
Midsouth can expect 2-4 inches of rainfall. WPC has the axis of
heaviest accumulation along the Mississippi Tennessee State line.
Even with a couple of days early in the week to dry out, flash
flood guidance will remain quite low. Additional flooding is
possible. High pressure will build in Thursday night. We should
see dry conditions Friday through next weekend.

Temperatures will remain seasonably warm through Thursday...then
near to slightly above normal Friday into next weekend.




12Z TAF cycle

VFR conds will continue until this evening. A system will track
south of the region and spread low clouds and rain back into parts
of the Mid-South. MVFR conds will spread north into the KMEM-KMKL
corridor by 26/02z and continue through most of the overnight.
Steady rain will move into the KTUP area by early evening with IFR
conds developing overnight. Clouds will gradually clear out of
KMEM/KMKL late tonight and KTUP by mid morning Sunday. Winds will
be light from the NE during the period.




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