295
FXUS64 KMEG 141618
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1118 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Not much change to the current forecast. A large upper low
continues to churn over central Missouri at this hour. A well
defined vorticity maxima was located near the ArkLaMiss, as seen
from GOES East Water Vapor Channel. An ongoing area of showers
has begun to intensify in the past hour and could begin to produce
lightning within the hour. These showers and thunderstorms will
pivot through north Mississippi and west Tennessee through this
afternoon.

The latest surface analysis places a 1004mb low over the Missouri
Bootheel with an attendant warm front extending southeast into
Middle Tennessee with a cold front strewn nearly along the I-40
corridor. A small warm sector, ahead of the cold front will be an
area where a few strong storms could form this afternoon. MLCAPE
values will approach 1500 J/kg and combine with 30 knots of deep
layer shear. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threats with
any strong storms and will mainly affect portions of northeast
Mississippi and a sliver of west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. The threat for strong storms will diminish by late
afternoon as the front pushes east of the area and rain stabilizes
the atmosphere. A few wraparound showers will persist through the
overnight hours as the main upper level low slowly moves into
Middle Tennessee.

The forecast is in good shape, with no major changes needed at
this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

At least a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast nearly every day this week. Wednesday looks to be
our best shot at dry conditions across the Midsouth. There is also
a chance for a dry weekend, but model guidance is not in total
agreement with this solution. High temperatures over the next
seven days should range from the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low in southeast Missouri and an upper level low over
northwest Missouri will result in more rain and thunderstorms
across the Midsouth today and tonight. These features will drift
slowly off to the east over the next 24-36 hours with shortwave
ridging building in from the west Wednesday. As a result,
Wednesday should be our best shot at dry conditions across the
Midsouth.

The ridge will shift over Middle Tennessee Thursday as a
trough digs to our west across the Four-Corners area. This
pattern will set up southwest flow across the region and a series
of weak shortwaves will traverse the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into the weekend. The focus for the
heaviest rain and stronger thunderstorms will likely remain to our
south, much like we have seen over the past couple of days.
Conditions should not be supportive of severe storms in the
Midsouth, but frequent lightning, gusty wind and heavy rainfall
can be expected with nearly any thunderstorm this time of year.
High temperatures over the next seven days should range from the
upper 70s to middle 80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

For the weekend, guidance is coming into better agreement that
another ridge will build in from the west resulting in a drier
pattern. However, given recent discrepancies in previous model runs,
I`m not comfortable totally removing PoPs just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level low pressure system, currently centered over
Missouri, will continue to push east giving lift to -TSRA/VCSH.
Ceilings will slowly improve from IFR/MVFR to VFR conditions by
this afternoon. Winds will gradually shift west/northwest as
northwest flow settles over the Mid-South. Winds will gust up to
20 kts this afternoon ahead of the aforementioned low pressure
system.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH