000
FXUS64 KMEG 130441
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

UPDATE...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S OVER EASTERN AR TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE TN
RIVER.

GOES IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED A WELL ORGANIZED MCS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN IN. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD TAKE IT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TO 500MB THICKNESS FIELDS CONCUR...AND HAVE
REMOVED MENTIONABLE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE TN RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST TN.

A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A ROBUST ELEVATED
WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR 850MB WILL ERODE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
THURSDAY MORNING. BEST OUTLOOK FOR RAIN APPEARS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE PEAK SURFACE HEATING
COINCIDES WITH THE EROSION OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER.

FORECAST UPDATE SENT.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND. HEAT INDICES REMAINED BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING MCS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY AFFECT THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST. A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF NE MS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/TUP STARTING AS EARLY AS 13/16-18Z AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT OUT VCTS MENTION AT JBR
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. THINK BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONAL VCTS WILL BE AT TUP. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY TO AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AND
VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND DECREASE TO NORTH/NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER
14/01Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  93  69  89 /   0  20  10   0
MKL  75  90  63  84 /  10  20   0   0
JBR  75  92  66  87 /   0  10   0   0
TUP  74  93  65  88 /   0  40  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$