


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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457 FXUS66 KMTR 131951 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1251 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1250 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages with a more noticeable cooling trend beginning Tuesday. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1250 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (This evening through Monday) Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to those yesterday. Generally expecting the coastal areas to be in the upper 50s to lower 70s where low stratus looks most likely to prevail. The interior will warm into the upper 70s to lower 90s and the far inland areas of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay and interior Monterey/San Benitio County reaching or exceeding 100 degrees F (but only in isolated spots). Stratus will return back inland into the coastal valleys tonight and into early Monday morning. There is also the potential for coastal drizzle again tonight and has been added to the official forecast. Low clouds retreat back to the coast by mid/late Monday morning resulting in sunny skies across the inland areas. Meanwhile, coastal locations may very well remain under cloudy or mostly cloudy skies. Monday afternoon will feature similar temperatures as today! From previous forecaster: "Localized elevated fire weather threat persists across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20- 35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25-40%, and localized gusts to 25 mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However, the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night." && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Monday night through Saturday) Late on Monday, a shortwave trough, or perhaps a weak cutoff low, develops into the Pacific Northwest, pushing the ridge axis towards the west and north and causing a noticeable cooling trend to begin on Tuesday and lasting for at least the following two days. High temperatures drop into the middle 70s to middle 80s inland and the upper 60s to the middle 70s along the Bayshore, with the coast remaining rather stable at the upper 50s to lower 60s. Towards the end of the forecast period, the forecast becomes a little more uncertain. Ensemble model cluster analysis points to weak ridging (i.e. warmer temperatures) and weak troughing (i.e. cooler temperatures) by Friday, with the differences compounding through the upcoming weekend into the early part of the following week, when a significant ridge and a significant trough are possible across the western United States. With the two scenarios having nearly equal probabilities, there is not enough confidence at this time to deviate from the default NBM forecast, which depicts a gradual warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend. CPC outlooks suggest a slight lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages in the 8-14 day period (July 20-26). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 951 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with VFR expected shortly at all terminals with the exception of HAF which is slated to remain sub-VFR through the TAF period. High confidence in all terminals deteriorating to sub-VFR conditions again tonight as the pattern largely remains unchanged. Coastal drizzle will be possible during the overnight and morning hours. Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California will likely filter into the region and reduce slight range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Westerly flow will return once the sea breeze kicks in this afternoon. High confidence in sub-VFR ceilings returning tonight, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. SFO Bridge Approach...The approach still has some low stratus this morning, but that should evaporate very quickly. Low stratus clouds will begin to filter in through the Golden Gate Gap by 01Z with visuals likely being impacted through 18Z Monday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY and IFR and calm at SNS. Both terminals are expected to improve to VFR shortly with stratus sticking to the coast during the day. High confidence in LIFR ceilings returning to both terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong northerly breezes and very rough seas will be present Monday and Tuesday for the northern outer waters. Aside from that, a gentle to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail through Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea