Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1149 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE WEAKENING VORT MAX EAST OF
CONNECTICUT AND AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH PENNSYLVANIA.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL E-NE FLOW...STRATUS AND SHOWERS.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO MVFR CITY TERMINALS AND IFR
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN LOW STRATUS. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WORK ONSHORE OVER EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE
BECOMING HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED AFT. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BACK INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS...HIGHEST PROB
MID WED MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SPARSE
TSRA DURING THIS PERIOD.

NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N/NNE AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S WED MORN INTO WED
AFT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA. E-NE WINDS 10-15
KT...WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR AND -SHRA MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD UP TO 4 TO 5 FT THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE
SURFACE WIND INCREASES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC/MET





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