Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC






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