Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291617
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1217 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS
A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANY COVERAGE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL AN AREA
OF RAIN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER
JET/SHORTWAVE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR
RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV
GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN
CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND
MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE
STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL
CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS
THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING
THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES
SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON
SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT
TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS
LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO
JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC
FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

E WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD VEER A LITTLE
MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 090-110 MAGNETIC
THIS MORNING. ITWS SPEEDS/GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE BY A
COUPLE KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND
ALL WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

NE WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SCA CONDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/PW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC/GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM



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