Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 201136
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
736 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DRIFT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS
FOR THE SKY TO CLEAR OUT.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRESS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER CAPE COD
LATER TODAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...THE SKY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL USHER A COOLER
AIRMASS INTO MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TOP OFF
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
TUESDAY. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AWAY FROM NYC
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S.

COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY...AND WILL FOCUS ON
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AS IT
NEGATIVELY TILTS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL BUILDING
IN ALOFT...DUE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE W/SLIGHT CHANCE E OF LIGHT RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES TO SE QUEBEC/SW ONTARIO BY LATE
SATURDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WARRANTING CHANCE POPS THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO THE S FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN LIFT TO THE N SATURDAY MORNING...SO WENT WITH RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...FORECASTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS VEER FROM NE-ENE TO E BY MID MORNING...THEN TO SE BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 8-13 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND 10 KT OR LESS FOR INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR.
NW-N WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING EAST...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE WATERS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SCA GUSTS...BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT. WILL CONVERT SCA TO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TODAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
AND EASTERN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY IN GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE QPF WILL BE LESS THAN
1/4 INCH AND NOT POSE FLOODING ISSUES.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS






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