Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 020822
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND STALL IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE PUSHING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL BE REINFORCED FROM TIME TO TIME AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND A VORTEX OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ALOFT TODAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W/NW
FLOW BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA TODAY. SEABREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AT THE
COAST.

HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 80S
AND AROUND 90 IN THE METRO UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
H5 FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS NOAM TONIGHT AND MON IN RESPONSE TO
CUTOFF LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN WESTERN CANADA AND THE H5 CANADIAN
VORTEX DRIFTING SWD.

WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA IN PLACE. INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATION FOG.
NAM IS ALSO INDICATING STRATUS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHES
FLOATING AROUND LATE...BUT CLIMATOLOGY IS AGAINST IT BEING
WIDESPREAD. SO THINKING MORE FOG THAN STRATUS WOULD OCCUR.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED UP A BIT WITH THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHING FOR MON AFT/EVE...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
AREA WON`T SEE ANY SHRA/TSTMS UNTIL MON EVE/NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS AS SUCH BUT KEPT THEM AT CHC WITH A WEAKENING TREND NOTED
OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATE MON AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND 30-40 KTS BULK SHEAR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING. IF THINGS SPEED UP AGAIN...THE STORMS WOULD
MAKE IT HERE EARLIER AND IMPACT MORE OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...HOT
AND HUMID FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST
LOCATIONS...LOWER 90S NYC/NE NJ.

FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA...SOMEWHERE INVOF NYC/WESTERN CT...MON
NIGHT AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH TUE. HIGHS ON TUE ARE TRICKY AS A
RESULT. HIGHEST TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE E OF THE FRONT WITH THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THIS E OF NYC SO HAVE INCREASE POPS TO CHC ON LI AND
CT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST AGAIN...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TUE AFTN/EVE.

FRONT FINALLY PUSHES E TUE NIGHT WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
RETURNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS EAST AND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE LOW STAYING SOUTH
OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...AND THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL PASS EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH EACH PASSING LOW. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR TODAY.

LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE SW THIS MORNING. EXPECTED AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH LATE DAY SOUTHEAST
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT KEWR/KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S/SW FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON
NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE OCEAN AND THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTN/EVE E OF NYC...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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