Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1237 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND USHERS IN VERY COLD AIR STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES NEAR THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS HELPING...IN ADDITION TO FRESH
SNOW COVER TO KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT
WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO INLAND. MID TEENS
FOR THE CITY AND AROUND 10 ON LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...THE LOWER OF THE
MOS WAS USED AND LOWERED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THERE. FEEL THESE MIGHT
STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT USUALLY LOOSE WHEN TRYING TO OUT FORECAST
MOS TOO MUCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING
AND LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO BE OVERCAST BY MID
AFTERNOON EVEN OUT EAST. TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD - AROUND 30...LOWER
30S NY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

KEEP POPS JUST WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM PER CONSENSUS OF
LATEST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. TWO SYSTEMS - THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT.
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW -
THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST. PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS AND
DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT: WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER

CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROP
IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE. FORECAST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM.

WINDS HOWL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO INLAND WITH
MID SINGLE DIGITS AT THE COAST. LOOKS LIKELY FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES !!

JUMPING TO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OUT OF TEXAS. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG WITH ALL
SURROUND NWS OFFICES TO LIKELY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
CONTINUE WITH THE COLD SOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS
MEAN (NOT THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS WARM) AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CMC IS THE WARMEST - ALL RAIN AND A
LOT OF IT (DO NOT NEED THAT EITHER).

WILL ADD THIS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND
DEPARTS ON THURSDAY.

VFR...THOUGH VSBYS MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED IN BLSN.

NW WINDS...GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG...AT 10-15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 21Z...AND THEN VEER TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LGT/VRB AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMDS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT KNYC TERMINALS. LESS THAN 1
INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS...EXCEPT 1-2 INCHES AT KSWF.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY EVENING...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 20KT
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE.
.SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...CONDS DETERIORATE LATE SUNDAY TO MVFR OR
LOWER...INITIALLY IN SNOW. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF LOW. LOW
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SCA GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA
LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
MAKES GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADDED TO FORECAST WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO
LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WARM
SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE AND MOST PRECIPITATION
COULD BE OF LIQUID WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT
OR MORE OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE









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