Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 301931
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Deep moisture feed occurs along the eastern seaboard ahead of
weak upper trough, and surface cold front tonight. With partial
sunshine and increased instability nw of NYC, showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will make their way toward the
area this evening. Not sure how well this area holds together due
to weak shear, along with waning daytime instability. Will
continue with chance pops along the front tonight, and higher
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms remains just
offshore of Long Island as well, along the deep moisture axis from
the Carolinas.

Patchy fog will develop, and is in fact continuing along the
southeast coast of Long Island.

Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.

In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.

Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.

Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The uncertainty
is the duration of IFR and below and whether or not this moves
farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR for city
and nearby terminals.

There are chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly northwest
of the city terminals through early this evening. Outside of KSWF
where VCTS is mentioned early this evening, no other mention of
thunder is in TAFs. By late evening and overnight, there will
still be chances of showers towards the coast along with patchy
fog development.

Winds will be S-SW 5-10 kt, locally higher at JFK, LGA, ISP and
GON. Winds become NNW 5-10 kt behind cold front early Tuesday
before sea breeze begins to form near coastline, returning wind
directions to S-SW once again.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: There could be occasional gusts up to 20 kt
late this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast
late this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast
late this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast
late this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR may last 1-2 hours later than indicated in
the TAF.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of IFR uncertain and could vary 1-3
hours compared to forecast. Winds could be stronger than fcst
late this afternoon with ocnl gusts 20-25 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Tuesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Extended the dense fog
advisory for the eastern waters tonight.

As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.

Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
     350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW



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