Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 291123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OR WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PINE BARRENS
REGION OF LI AND WELL INLAND TO DROP TO AROUND 50. TEMPS WILL WARM
QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY STATES. A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES TO THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. TODAY
WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MET/MAV MOS
BLEND.

A THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN SLY
FLOW AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFT WITH LOCAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS PASS TO THE NORTH...ONE TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER SUN NIGHT. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS LATE SUN AFT/NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY
MON. AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED WITH LACK OF A STRONG
LIFTING MECHANISM. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC IN THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE SUN IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA MON
INTO MON NIGHT WITH VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS.

HIGH WILL BE IN THE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MON WITH A
FEW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND METRO NY. FORTUNATELY...DEW POINTS
WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ONCE AGAIN...USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. LIKELY SUPPRESSING TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTH NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS BUILDS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...NW TO SW AROUND 5 KT. SEA
BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT IN TAFS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS
AND SW AROUND 5 KT ACROSS NY METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY....VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFT AND AGAIN SUN
AFT/EVE INTO MON LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA AS GUSTS
APPROACH 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
EXPECTED TUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON TONIGHT...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE
COASTAL LOCALES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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