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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230011
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE PATCHY MVFR STRATUS. NORTHERN EDGE OF
LOWER CIGS CLOSE TO SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND BUT SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES IT MOVING AWAY.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PER TAFS...BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. BKN-OVC DECK MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLY...ALTHO NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE PM.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
