Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 301943
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THEN A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN OF
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
SO EXPECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. EXPECT STRONG WINDS
TOMORROW...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...MAY NOT SEE THOSE STRONG WINDS
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS...ACTUALLY JUST CLOSER
TO NORMAL...TO HANG AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEK. WEATHER
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDER ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS DROPS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE
WITH IT. SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOKS MAINLY
DIURNALLY GENERATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING IN
THE EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS. EMPHASIS ON LESS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.   EUROPEAN MODEL MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH
UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WHILE GFS HAS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL
TROF SUNDAY EVENING INTO EASTERN OREGON AND DRIVES IT THROUGH IDAHO
MONDAY MOVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT.  GFS WOULD BE
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FRIDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AND THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AFTER COLD
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.  SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON BOTH MODELS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL.   GFS TURNS COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
TRENDED GRIDS IN THIS DIRECTION MORE SO THAN FOLLOWING EUROPEAN
SOLUTION.  HIGH UNCERTAINTY BEYOND SATURDAY IN FORECAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.   A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES IDAHO TUESDAY AND EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AT BYI...PIH AND IDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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