Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 031918
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
118 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY STILL
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. 500MB 5 WAVE SHOWS A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH ALMOST NO 500 MB CONTOURS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GEM STATE. THUS EXPECT HIGH INCONSISTENCY AMONG
PRODUCT SUITES AND FROM RUN TO RUN...AS IT WILL BE ALL SHORT-WAVE
DRIVEN. AND THE DETAILS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE WESTERN STATES FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS PERIOD. THE FAIRLY INTENSE LOW HAS A CENTER NEAR
LAS VEGAS NV AT THE START...AND IT WILL ALREADY BE PUMPING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND AT LEAST PART
OF SAT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS WHERE SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
DEVELOPS. ECMWF BRINGS IN ANOTHER MODERATE TO HEAVY SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT. GFS HAS THIS SECOND SURGE
EARLIER WITH NO BREAK ON SAT NIGHT. BOTH DO INDICATE DRIER
CONDITIONS MON TO THE END FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO RIDE DOWN THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND KEEP SHOWERS IN THE ID-WY AND ID-MT BORDER REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS
QUICKLY TO ANY CLEARING AND SO BY MON/TUE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
REACHING THE 70S FOR HIGHS AT LOW ELEVATIONS. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS TO MOVE
THROUGH STARTING AROUND 04/17Z BUT SHOULD STAY UNLIMITED CIG AND
VSBY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY WILL BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON
WED BUT STILL REMAIN LIGHT. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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