Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
334 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednedsay.Current water vapor
imagery shows a high pressure ridge off the Oregon/Washington
coast. Look for high pressure ridging to build in across our area
today through Monday bringing a return to above normal
temperatures and continuing dry conditions. A disturbance will
move through the ridging late Monday into Tuesday bringing a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over the Central mountains
and the Montana border. Additionally, look for winds to slightly
increase across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be near
normal today and rise to above normal by Monday and continue to
be above normal through Wednesday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.Sub-tropical moisture
starts to work its way into the area Thursday and will remain
through Sunday. Expect a chance of afternoon isolated
thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Expect winds to increase
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through the area
on Sunday. Look for moderate to strong winds on Sunday as the cold
front moves through the area. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage may
increase to scattered on Saturday and possible Sunday for our Eastern
areas. However...confidence continues to be low for thunderstorm
coverage particularly for the weekend as models continue to change
slightly with each run. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the period. Wyatt


.AVIATION...VFR clear conditions will prevail under a dry west flow
aloft. Huston


.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure positioned off the SW
California coast will gradually expand inland across the Great Basin
driving daytime highs 10 to 15 deg above normal early this week. A
weak low pressure system currently positioned off the Oregon coast
will shift inland over the top of the developing ridge
Monday/Tuesday producing a weak threat of isolated afternoon
thunderstorms mainly over the Idaho panhandle and extending as far
south as NRN Lemhi County. By mid-week, sub-tropical moisture is
expected to begin rotating north around the high and into SRN Idaho
providing a limited moisture feed for isolated thunderstorms but
lacking any real lifting mechanism until late Thursday or perhaps
Friday. The confidence here is low as the GFS model is not as
aggressive as yesterdays runs in bringing a Pacific trough
into/through the NW states Friday-Sunday opting for a more northerly
track with the incoming trough. This mornings operational run of the
GFS model resembles yesterdays European run while the most recent
European run is now looking a lot like yesterdays GFS run
highlighting a more amplified trough working into the NW states
Saturday. Thus, the best chance for thunderstorm activity is
expected to be Thursday night through Saturday with temperatures
remaining unseasonably warm but with moderately elevated humidity
due to the influx of sub-tropical moisture. Breezy conditions along
with some cooling may accompany the cold front/upper trough through
the region Sunday depending on the timing and track of the
trough. Huston


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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