Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 172010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
210 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather expected into Sunday. Models show a
monsoonal push of moisture towards the area, but the GFS and
European have come into alignment and perhaps the push will be as
strong for Sunday and Monday as previously suggested by the GFS.
Looks like the best cloud/storm chances will remain across the
southern highlands and perhaps out of the totality path. Did
undercut temps a couple degrees for Monday, although not sure if
the eclipse will really have that much of an impact or not. Both
models are showing a resurgence of moisture beginning Tuesday
afternoon and lasting through the week as a low pressure system
over southern California lifts out.



.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty winds
through about sunset, particularly at BYI, IDA and PIH with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range from the west-southwest. Some uptick in winds
again on Friday, but winds should be about 5 kt less than today.


.FIRE WEATHER...Critically low relative humidity values are expected
each afternoon through Saturday in many valley locations with near-
critical wind gusts this afternoon, mainly for Arco Desert Area.
Less winds anticipated for Friday with little change Saturday.
Indications for Sunday hint at some moisture begins to creep into
portions of southern Idaho ahead of a slowly developing low pressure
system the southern California coast. This increase in moisture is
expected to result in an isolated shower and thunderstorm threat
near the Utah border and perhaps over the Caribou highlands around
Bear Lake by Sunday afternoon and evening, with similar conditions
expected for Monday -- for Eclipse mania. For Tuesday, forecast
guidance favors a continued northward expansion of moisture, so
isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms possible over all of
SE Idaho by then with similar conditions existing into midweek.



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