Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 271448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
748 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. A quick update this
morning. The early morning convective band that was evident in
yesterdays progs and supposed to have set up along the SE highlands
never really materialized last night. However, the GFS, NAM and HRRR
models appear to be fairly excited about spooling up a quick shot of
snowfall later this morning through early afternoon first in the
Magic Valley then spreading east through the Pocatello area by early
afternoon with the upper trough passage. Regional radar also appears
to be supportive of this with an area of precip visible across the
SW Idaho Highlands which is currently moving east. Utilizing the
latest numerical data, it looks like perhaps 1 to 3 inches of
accumulation. The forecast has been updated. We will wait to see how
things progress this morning to see if we need to go with an
Advisory. See the previous discussion below. Huston

Snowfall overnight has been pretty underwhelming outside of portions
of the southeast/eastern highlands. Occasional snow should continue
across those areas through the rest of the day, enough that we will
continue the advisory from south of Island Park to the Utah border.
Those areas will see 2-4" mainly above 6500ft.Due to the lack of
significant snow overnight and lack of expected impacts from any
additional snow (this morning in the Snake Plain and all day in the
central mountains), we`ve pulled the advisory in those areas. Here,
any snow (especially in the Plain), may end up more showers or
"waves" of light snow. Outside of the advisory area, anywhere from a
dusting to 2" is forecast and that may be pushing it. Winds will
pick up this afternoon as expected though. Many areas will see
sustained winds of 15-20mph with higher gusts, with 20-30 mph and
higher gusts across the Snake Plain. Could there be some blowing and
drifting outside of the advisory area? Certainly, but again at this
point nothing that requires a headline it appears right now.

The next "wave" of moisture moves through tonight and Tuesday.
This will provide another round of light snow. We are looking at
1-4" in the Sawtooths ABOVE 6500ft, and similar amounts above
6000ft for other mountainous areas. Below those elevations
everywhere, expect an inch or less in general. Right now, winds
are still forecast to crank up in the afternoon. Expect sustained
15-25mph with higher gusts region-wide with 30-35mph/higher gusts
for much of the Snake Plain and higher slopes of the central and
south-central mountains. However, some of the data suggest that
might be a bit strong now. It`s something later shifts will have
to look at and see if an advisory is still needed. We will likely
see a bit of blowing and drifting in some areas, but still not
anything headline-worthy.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Wednesday evening through Monday. General moist
northwest flow across the region for most of the extended. This
means snow possible for upslope favored areas across portions of the
central Idaho mountains and eastern highlands, perhaps parts of the
Snake Plain. Amounts likely fairly light. A stronger system arrives
over the weekend. This will produce a better chance for widespread
precipitation Saturday and Sunday. With possibly healthy snow
amounts for parts of the central Idaho mountains and eastern
highlands. Warm air will be working into the system, so a mix of
rain and snow is likely for some of the valleys including the Snake
Plain and eastern Magic Valley. Looks like high pressure builds into
the area for Monday. Valle

.AVIATION...A storm system will move through the region today.
Expect snow showers which will bring lower ceilings at times. Brisk
conditions likely as well. Valle

.HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures have helped to mitigate snow melt
issues. Next warm up comes late this week and through the weekend.

Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MST Tuesday for IDZ020-021.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for IDZ019-

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