Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 231958
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017


.SHORT TERM...Weak impulse with residual moisture mixed with
heating instability has allowed isolated thunderstorms to linger
along the Utah/Idaho border from Holbrook area east to the Wyoming
Border. Cur.SHORT TERM...Weak impulse with residual moisture
mixed with heating instability has allowed isolated thunderstorms
to linger along the Utah/Idaho border from Holbrook area east to
the Wyoming Border. Current trends show another batch of energy in
western Utah headed to the southeast corner of Idaho through
early evening. Although very little rain is reaching the ground,
isolated lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 40 mph are
expected. In the bigger picture low pressure off the west coast
will help increase the flow aloft bringing in a healthy dose of
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Biggest impacts will be potential
for heavy rains on Tuesday and Wednesday with the larger
thunderstorms. If these pass over any recent burn scars flash
flooding may result. Temperatures will reduce some 10 degrees on
Tuesday and Wednesday with increased cloud cover, but with
humidities rapidly rising it will feel muggy over all the region.
VP


.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Sunday. Lingering affects from
the low pressure moving through will produce some continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Into next
weekend, expect warming temperatures back into the 90s with drying
conditions. Only isolated mountain thunderstorms possible.
VP

&&

.AVIATION...Main airport locations will see VFR through tomorrow
mid-day. Those flying along the Idaho/Utah border from Malta into
Wyoming expected isolated thunderstorms with virga and erratic
gusty winds to 40 mph. Monday afternoon expect convection to
become more scattered over central and eastern Idaho with
potential for thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds to 45
mph.
VP



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms possible over portions of Zone 413 through
this evening along a disturbance that extends from western Wyoming
southwest into Nevada. This activity should subside overnight. Have
issued a Red Flag Warning from Noon-9PM Monday for Zones 425 and 427
for scattered thunderstorms. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected
to develop over SW Idaho late Monday morning and track eastward
across the Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Highlands through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will be cable of gusty, erratic outflow
winds to 45 mph. Have held off on issuance of Red Flag for other
areas due to uncertainty of whether thunderstorm coverage will be
greater than isolated. Continued shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, with forecast guidance
suggesting the potential for scattered coverage Wednesday.
Atmosphere becomes increasingly moist (2-2.5x climatology) Tue-Wed
so `wet` thunderstorms are a good bet, with thunderstorms trending
increasingly dry farther north towards the Salmon-Challis.
Additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible through the rest
of the week although coverage should gradually decline each day as a
ridge of high pressure gradually builds back into the region.
AD

&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$


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