Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 130917
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
417 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014
(Today and Tonight)
Surface high pressure will move east today, bringing a return to
south winds. It will be mostly sunny today with only scattered
high clouds. GFS/NAM MOS guidance is close and looks good. The
main weather impact will be elevated fire danger due to dry air.
RH values will fall below 20 percent in the Big Country and Concho
Valley this afternoon. However, winds less than 15 mph will keep
conditions below critical fire weather values.
Tonight, continued southerly winds will bring back low level
moisture and stratus into the Concho Valley and Heartland after 1
AM. Scattered clouds may even approach the I-20 corridor and
Abilene towards morning.
(Friday through next Wednesday)
On Friday, a shortwave will approach the area from the west. And
while the GFS and EC still have some subtle differences, they both
generally bring the trough through TX just south of the panhandle
region Friday night. The NAM is slower and a bit stronger with the
low producing precipitation in our northern counties Friday night
into Saturday. Have upped PoPs, but not enough to mention any
weather at this time as both the GFS and EC have consistently kept
the bulk of the precipitation to our north/east.
As has been advertised in the last several discussions, the next
low is then expected to move south into New Mexico out of the
Rocky Mountains by Saturday afternoon/evening. The GFS and EC have
also come into better agreement with this low, bringing it
south into western Mexico and the southern Gulf of California by
Sunday night. This would bring at least a slight chance of light
showers as the low moves by to our west on Sunday. Will keep
just showers in the forecast as the best instability associated
with the core of the upper level low will be well west of our
area. Colder air will also move in as a cold front moves through
the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Beyond Sunday, have not made any major changes. There are
significant differences between medium range models causing lower
confidence in the forecast for the first half of next week. The
one thing that models do agree on is dry weather from Monday
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 46 77 50 74 / 0 0 5 10 5
San Angelo 70 44 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 67 45 73 51 80 / 0 5 5 5 10