260
FXUS64 KSJT 131148
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch is in Effect for West Central Texas mainly along
  and south of I-20 through 1 PM Sunday.

- Moderate risk of flooding Concho Valley/Heartland/NW Hill
  Country/N. Edwards Plateau tonight.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight) Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Jul
13 2025

...Flood watch is in effect mainly along and south of I-20 until
1 PM...

WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in the Concho
Valley/Heartland/N. Edwards Plateau and NW Hill Country tonight.

At 145 AM CDT, band of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall extended
from east of Abilene to Coleman to San Saba at 145 AM, with
another area of showers and thunderstorms from San Angelo to
Menard, Ft McKavett and Sonora. Precipital water amounts were
high, 1.5 to 2 inches, with the highest values to the east.

Short term models continue to generate showers and thunderstorms
into Sunday morning, particularly from Coleman and Brownwood south
to Brady, Mason and Junction. The HRRR model also builds
convection west toward San Angelo toward daybreak (which already
is seeing storms). By 9 to 10 AM this morning, most of the
rainfall is in Menard/Mason/Kimble counties, which moves south of
West Central Texas by 1 PM, ending most of the heavy rainfall
threat. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible, with local amounts of
5 to 8 inches.

This afternoon heating, and could produce a quick 1/2 inch of
rainfall, but flood threat is significantly diminished. A few
showers may still possible overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Upper ridging and subsidence will gradually build in from the west
this week, but West Central Texas will still be in a weak trough
aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday into
Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical, there
could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s will still be in a
weak trough aloft. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday
into Wednesday. As the atmosphere will be slightly tropical,
there could be locally heavy downpours, but no organized flooding
likely. Mainly dry conditions expected by Thursday. High
Temperatures warm up into the lower to mid 90s

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite and radar images indicate an MCS across the southern and
eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. MVFR to IFR
conditions were prevailing across portions of the Heartland,
northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau with ceilings
near 700ft at KCOM to near 2600ft at KOZA and visibilities near
3SM with rain and mist at KBWD to near 4SM with rain at KBBD.
500mb low/trough associated with the MCS across west central Texas
this morning will move slowly eastward this afternoon. Expect MVFR
to IFR conditions to prevail across the southern and eastern
portions of west central Texas the rest of this morning with low
clouds reducing ceilings and heavy rain reducing visibilities with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  71  89  73 /  40  20  40  10
San Angelo  86  69  88  71 /  60  30  40  10
Junction    83  69  88  70 /  70  40  30  10
Brownwood   84  69  88  71 /  60  30  30  10
Sweetwater  89  69  90  72 /  30  20  40  10
Ozona       86  68  87  70 /  50  40  40  20
Brady       81  69  86  70 /  70  40  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-
Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...61