Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 022041
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

WILL IT RAIN TONIGHT IS THE QUESTION. AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS STARTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. WE EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING
IN THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. THE 3 PM SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE,
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH,WITH
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

FOR MONDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AIR. RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND DECREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY
NIGHT, AND ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE HEAR OF THE
DAY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ONGOING FOR THAT PERIOD. AFT
THAT THOUGH, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK INTO PLACE AND THE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN. GIVEN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION
MOISTURE CONDITIONS DRYING OUT, MAY SEE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN LAST WEEK. THUS, AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
100 DEGREE MARK ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  73  98  76 100 /  10   5   5  10
SAN ANGELO  72  98  74 100 /  10   5   5  10
JUNCTION  71  97  72  97 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/07


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