Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 252350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
550 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015

/00Z TAFS/

Low level southerly flow will transport stratus back north across
West Central Texas this evening. A few more hours of VFR
conditions, then MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals the next
24 hours. Also, IFR ceilings at KSOA between 04Z and 20Z. The
winds will be south with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Scattered
showers will develop across the area Thursday and going with VCSH
at the KABI and KBBD terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST WED NOV 25 2015/

(Tonight and Thursday)

A prominent trough continues to dig over the western CONUS this
afternoon, setting the stage for a wet Thanksgiving weekend.
Downstream of this trough, the flow aloft is becoming more
southwesterly over time, with a strong subtropical jet intensifying
across the region. Several subtle shortwave troughs will traverse
the region over the next few days, enhancing large scale forcing.
One such wave is approaching the area this afternoon and the ascent
is noted by the increase in mid-level clouds.

Low clouds have eroded across much of the CWA but will quickly
return this evening once the boundary layer begins to stabilize. As
isentropic ascent ramps up overnight, we may see light rain and/or
drizzle develop, mainly after midnight. Any precipitation that falls
between now and sunrise will remain very light. The abundance of low-
level moisture, gusty south winds, and cloudy skies will result in
overnight lows in the 60s, very close to normal highs for this time
of year.

Rain chances will increase on Thanksgiving day as another subtle
shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. This synoptic
lift should erode the cap sufficiently to support scattered to
numerous showers. A limited amount of instability is also expected,
making a few thunderstorms a possibility, as well. Again, rainfall
amounts on Thursday are not expected to be significant, with heavier
rainfall not anticipated until late Friday and Saturday. Rainfall
amounts on Thanksgiving will largely remain under 1/4 inch. Strong
southerly winds will gust over 25 mph at times, with afternoon
temperatures warming into the low/mid 70s.


(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The cold and wet forecast begins. Models have been remarkably
consistent about the developing situation for Friday and Saturday
and few changes were made to the forecast. Modified arctic cold
front moves into the area late Thursday Night into early Friday
morning. The NAM (and TTWRF) is a few hours faster than the GFS
as usual and will go with this quicker frontal passage. This puts
the front into the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene by
around 3 AM Friday morning, San Angelo to Brownwood by around
sunrise, and into the I-10 corridor by late morning. At all sites,
highs on Friday will be during the morning, with temperatures
falling through the afternoon. Temperatures bottom out Saturday
morning in the low to mid 30s, with highs on Saturday not
climbing very much at all.

Potent upper level system to the west continues to allow abundant
low level moisture to feed into the area at all levels. Scattered
showers and storms are expected even ahead of the front Thursday
Night, but certainly more widespread along and behind the front as
it provides a focus. Widespread rainfall will be likely Friday and
Friday Night. With the widespread rain, temperatures will be
critical. Most models keep temperatures across the northwest
Concho Valley and the western Big Country in the 31-33 degree
range. Given the warm rain falling into the air mass, getting any
freezing rain or any ice to develop will be difficult. Canadian
model is a couple degree colder, and if it ends up verifying then
a little ice accumulation would be possible, but for right now
will keep it has mainly a cold rain event for now for all of West
Central Texas.

Remnants of what is now Hurricane Sandra will move across the area
Saturday and Saturday Night, bringing more moderate to heavy
rainfall. Overall, rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be common
across all of the area, with higher amounts possible. Considered a
flash flood watch, but rainfall rates themselves seem somewhat
limited despite the high totals that we eventually see, with the
heaviest rates likely Saturday. Most of West Central Texas has not
see the same totals the central portions of the state have seen
either. Will hold off for now and continue to monitor the

Rest of the extended looks uneventful.


Abilene  61  71  38  42 /  30  60  80  90
San Angelo  63  75  48  52 /  30  50  60  80
Junction  64  73  64  67 /  30  60  60  90


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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