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000
FXUS64 KSJT 221128 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS/ WILL
DEVELOP NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CARRYING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN TEMPO CLOUD GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KABI...DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
9-12 KT TODAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY
REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND
WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  90  69  94  70  89 /   5  10  10  20  20
SAN ANGELO  94  70  95  69  90 /   5   5  10  20  10
JUNCTION  93  70  92  69  87 /   5   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$