Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

/12Z TAFS/

Most areas across West Central Texas will continue to see MVFR
cigs through mid morning, at least at times. High clouds aloft are
inhibiting these MVFR in some areas and making the lower cloud
deck patchy in some locations. By mid to late morning, the MVFR
cigs should lift to VFR ceilings for the remainder of the day.
Isolated storms are possible near the western and central
terminals (KSJT, KABI, and KSOA) but given the expected low coverage,
will not include a mention at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

(Today and Tonight)

Very unstable air mass will remain in place across West Central
Texas today, but cap is in place as well. With no real upper
support, any chance of convection will likely be confined to the
area very near the dryline, where convergence might make an isolated
storm possible. If a storm can develop, will certainly have the
potential of reaching severe levels given the high instability.
Otherwise, conditions today will be very much like we saw on Monday,
with morning low clouds clearing and leaving partly cloudy skies.
Afternoon highs reaching the mid and upper 80s for most locations.
Dewpoints not dropping much below 70 degrees at night for most
areas, so overnight lows in the low to mid 70s looks on target
as well.


(Wednesday into Monday)

Moist unstable air will remain over West Central Texas into next
week. Best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
night into Friday... as an upper low moves into the 4 corners
region before lifting northeast into the Central Plains. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday
night, but storm chances again increase Sunday afternoon into
Monday as another series of upper shortwaves move through.

Although the atmosphere is capped at times, especially Wednesday,
instability remains high into next week, with GFS SB CAPES of
3000-4000 J/KG, and sometimes close to 5000 J/KG. Storms that
break the CAP could become severe. SPC has a marginal risk for
Wednesday and an enhanced risk for Thursday. Large hail and
damaging winds possible. Thursday/Thursday evening could also see
a threat for tornadoes.


Abilene  87  73  91  72 /  20  20  10  10
San Angelo  90  73  93  72 /  20  10  10  30
Junction  85  73  90  72 /  10  10  10  30


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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