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000
FXUS64 KSJT 101745 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.
Will have an afternoon cumulus field across much of the southern
half of the area, and a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible. The expected coverage is too limited, however, to
mention in the TAFs at this time. Will monitor radar for any
possible updates. Model low-level moisture fields hint at possibility
of some possible low cloud development late tonight/early Friday
morning in our southern counties. With uncertainty at this time on
whether low cloud development will occur and how low the ceilings
would be, just carrying a SCT VFR layer for our southern TAF sites
overnight and early Friday morning. South-southeast winds will
continue, with gusts of 20-25 KT at times this afternoon and again
by late Friday morning.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. We will again
see afternoon cumulus develop with a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible, but coverage should be too isolated to
mention in any TAFs. Southerly winds wind will continue, and have
also added gusts to this afternoon`s winds at KABI/KSJT/KJCT, as
they have seen a few gusts during the past couple days. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The large scale pattern has changed very little over the past few
days. A ridge remains anchored over the Four Corners region with a
large trough over most of the eastern half of the CONUS.

A TUTT low can be seen spinning just west of Laredo across the
Rio Grande. This low is expected to slowly meander to the west-
northwest today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developed around this low on Wednesday, and will be likely to
develop again today, and some of these could make it as far north
as the I-10 corridor. So, have gone ahead and introduced a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly along and
south of a line from Junction to Eldorado to Barnhart for this
afternoon and evening. In addition to the chance for showers,
lower heights around the low may also allow for slightly cooler
temperatures for areas mainly south of a Barnhart/Brady/San Saba
line with highs near 90. The northern 2/3 of the area will still
likely see mid to upper 90s, and less than a 10 percent chance for
precipitation. Showers should end after sunset if they occur. Lows
will range from the upper 60s along the I-10 corridor to the mid 70s
along and north of I-20.

LONG TERM...

A persistence forecast continues into the first part of next week,
with a upper ridge aloft suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. There is a potential shift in the upper pattern mid
week however, as a strong upper low develops over the Great Lakes,
bringing northwest flow aloft and a stationary front over North
Texas. As both the EC and GFS models are indicating the pattern
change, there is enough confidence to bring a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms into the Big Country Wednesday.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  73  97 /  10   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  95  69  95  71  96 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  93  69  93  71  95 /  20   5   5   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$