Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232334
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extended from
Junction to San Angelo at 23Z. Have VCTS for KSJT until 1Z. Stratus
may develop over Crockett County and western Concho Valley towards
daybreak. NAM and GFS models indicated the stratus to stay just west
of KSOA and KSJT early Wednesday morning, so included a scattered
layer of 1500 to 2000 ft at those sites beginning at 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Isolated showers have developed across the Northern Edwards
Plateau in an area of weak instability and an axis of low level
moisture. Otherwise a scattered cu field covered the southern 1/3
of the area, along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, weak
instability and abundant tropical moisture(PW values 1.4 to 1.6
inches) will remain across much of the area. However, not much
ascent to work with. Will leave the slight chance POPS going for
this evening across southern and western areas. For Wednesday, not
much change in the forecast from today. Going for a slight chance
of thunderstorms west of a Haskell to Robert Lee to Ozona line.
However, coverage will remain isolated due to weak instability and
not much vertical motion. Highs will be in the 80s.

21

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday night through next Tuesday/

No significant changes made to the long term forecast. Wednesday
night, thunderstorms may be lingering across the western fringe of
the CWA as an upper level trough moves east across the Central and
Southern Plains.

A large upper level ridge will remain in place across the eastern
U. S. through most of the long term forecast. A weak shear axis
will be located over Texas into the weekend, which could lead to a
stray shower or two, but coverage/chances are not high enough to
include a mention in the forecast.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  84  61  84  61 /   5  10  10  10   5
San Angelo  65  84  61  83  59 /  20  10  10  10   5
Junction  63  84  59  84  61 /  20   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04






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