Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 120650 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
940 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through Tuesday with above normal
temperatures. Pacific storm expected to bring widespread
precipitation around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows a narrow frontal band offshore with EKA
radar detecting some light precip offshore. Trend of this feature is
to weaken as it moves inland with little if any QPF expected in our
CWA.

Relatively narrow bands of CI/CS moving through Norcal due to SW
flow aloft with ridge axis over the Great Basin. Band of high clouds
appears a little thicker over SAC area at this hour than over the
Nrn SJV with slow SEwd movement given the SW flow aloft. If this
trend continues...the high clouds would limit fog more in the Nrn
SJV than the Srn Sac Vly. However...forecast moisture profiles from
Bufkit suggest the high clouds will thin by Fri morning thereby
increasing the chances for some local F+ from vcnty of SAC Swd into
the Nrn SJV.

Frontal system nearing 130W is forecast to weaken as baroclinic zone
encounters strong downstream ridge. Main focus for precip is aimed
into the PacNW Friday. Southern portion of front will bring a threat
of some light precip to the far NW California coast and coastal
interior Friday afternoon into evening. Precip is not expected to
reach into our forecast area as system moves onshore and weakens.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal. Some patchy light morning
valley fog will continue to be possible over the weekend.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip looks to remain north of our
forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon into
the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

PCH

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure remains in control for the start of the work week
with ridge axis shifting east across the West Coast. Dry weather
and warm temperatures are expected with a few locations near
record highs Monday and Tuesday. Models have been fairly
consistent with a system moving into NorCal Wednesday and Thursday
with more widespread chance for precipitation. Differences in
timing, strength, and amount of moisture remain so details are
still a bit uncertain. Regardless, most of the area stands a good
chance for rain or snow with snow levels starting high and falling
to around 5000 feet as the system moves through. Stay tuned!

CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Some patchy MVFR
locally IFR fog formation possible again Friday morning across San
Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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