Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 021602
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
902 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WORK IT`S WAY IN TO THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS WELL.

LAST NIGHT SAW A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN MOSTLY NORTH OF I-80 NORTH
THROUGH SHASTA COUNTY. ON THE ORDER OF 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED IN THAT AREA. MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TO START POPPING UP BY NOON. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE
CREST. MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CREST.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST THAT
MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AREAS WOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE
NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY AND FROM NORTHERN PLUMAS COUNTY NORTHWARD.
FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PUSH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
MAY START INTO NEVADA.

A MODERATE DELTA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO KEEP INLAND
TEMPERATURES PLEASANT. A MODERATE TO STRONG DELTA BREEZE AT
TIMES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING THURSDAY FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CA COAST FRIDAY AND MOVING INLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF IT SLOWS IT WILL
LIKELY ENTRAIN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LEADING
TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS FOR NOW, BUT GIVEN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, MAY NEED TO ADD
A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&

.AVIATION...

SLY FLOW ALF WITH UPR LOW OFSHR AND UPR RDG TO THE E. VFR CONDS
OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC ISOLD MVFR POSS VCNTY MTN TSTMS.
TSTMS MOST NUMS E OF KMHS-KTVL. LCL SWLY SFC WND GSTS TO ARND 30
KTS CARQ STRAIT AND W DELTA.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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