Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 300427
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
927 PM PDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild weather into Thursday afternoon. A cold front will impact northern
interior California Thursday night into Saturday with rain and
mountain snow along, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Snow levels will lower to around 4500 ft Saturday
morning. Drier and milder weather early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
The weak ridge over the area will push east on Thursday as the
next system approaches. The models have slowed the pace of the
system a little and both are still not quite in sink with one
another. The GFS is still a little bit faster that the NAM. Some
light precipitation may start over the northern areas and coastal
range late Thursday night out ahead of the main front as moisture
spreads over the region. The main band will come in on Friday
during the morning for the coastal range and parts of the western
Sacramento valley and then spread east for the afternoon. There is
a chance the far southeastern portions of the CWA may stay dry
during the day but that mean it is looking more likely that it
will be wet for the trick or treaters. The coastal range and the
western portions of the Sacramento valley will likely see showers
with possible thunderstorms developing behind the front for the
trick or treaters by late in the afternoon...while the San Joaquin
valley is looking wet with the front over on top of that area
through early evening.

Unstable air behind the front will give the interior a chance of
thunderstorms pretty much everywhere Friday night with most of the
activity expected Friday evening. The low will still be over the region
on Saturday with a chance of showers continuing and isolated
thunderstorms. Its not until Saturday evening when the low moves
far enough to the east that more stable air move over the area to
dry things out.

The slower pace will delay the lowering of snow levels slightly.
Snow levels look like they will stay high into early Friday
evening before lowering. Still about a foot of snow over the
higher elevations will be possible with lessor amounts down to
around 5000 feet through Saturday.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Trough shifts east Sunday with ridging forecast to return into
early next week leading to a return of dry northwesterly flow for
much of interior NorCal and a retreat of precipitation chances to
around the Oregon border.

Another frontal system is perched offshore west of 130W by
Thursday. This is out past our forecast time frame, but be prepared
for another frontal system Thursday night into Friday.

JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds
generally below 10 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter storm watch from friday morning through saturday
afternoon above 5000 feet in the west slope northern sierra
nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$







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