Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 011611
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
911 AM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016



.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and mainly dry this week. A slight cooling trend starting
this weekend and continuing through the week. Isolated late day
thunderstorms possible over the Sierra Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest Hi-Res models suggest late day shower and/or thunderstorm
activity remaining east of the Sierra crest. As such, have
updated the forecast to show current model trends. No additional
updates required.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Water vapor and RAP model 500 mb analysis showed plenty of dry air
with an area of upper level divergence associated with a weak
upper level trough positioned over NorCal overnight. A lack of a
delta influenced breeze has kept temperatures overnight ranging
between the low to mid 70s for much of the valley...with the
northern end of the Sacramento valley in the lower 80s as of 3 am
PDT.

Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures will continue today
across the forecast area. Smoke from the Trailhead fire near Todd
Valley could bring some haze and patchy smoke today for
surrounding communities. Temperatures in the valley will range
from the upper 90s in the southern Sacramento Valley and Northern
San Joaquin Valley, but temperatures will reach triple digits
again in the northern Sacramento Valley. Higher elevations will
see 70s and 80s today. The latest high resolution model runs have
some showers and thunderstorms developing in the Sierra Nevada
mountains during the afternoon hours, but the placement should be
to the east of the crest. As a result, there are some slight
chances for thunderstorms at the higher elevations mentioned in
the forecast.

Chances for thunderstorms will continue Saturday afternoon for the
Sierra Nevada mountains south of US Highway 50. High temperatures
will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the valley. A
shortwave trough moving across the Pacific northwest will bring
slightly cooler temperatures to the valley for Sunday and Monday
with highs in the lower to mid 90s, and dry weather is
anticipated due to a lack of moisture and instability across the
forecast area.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

A weak upper trough will persist over the Pacific Northwest into
extreme NorCal next week, resulting in dry weather and near normal
temperatures. Onshore, southwest winds may be breezy over higher
terrain with our typical Delta Breeze impacting the valley.
Expect high temperatures in the 90s across the Valley, with 70s
and 80s over the mountains. JClapp/JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be around
10 kts or less. Winds in northern Sacramento valley for KRDD and
KRBL will switch from northerly this morning to southeasterly in
the afternoon. Otherwise, onshore flow expected for the rest of
the valley/TAF sites. Delta Breeze will increase again this
afternoon and evening. Areas of smoke near the Trailhead fire.
JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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