Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 130416
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
916 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK,
APPROACHING RECORDS. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SIERRA NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (Tonight through Thursday)...
A ridge of high pressure will build over the area into Wednesday.
Above normal temperatures will continue the next several days with
decent cooling in valley areas the next several nights. Thermal
belt areas will only cool off into the 60s the next few nights. We
may start to see some high clouds move northward into parts of
Northern California for Tuesday and Wednesday from the low off of
Baja with Wednesday the better chance for clouds. The NAM is
indicating some precipitation south of US-50 Wednesday afternoon
over the higher elevations which may spread northward to south of
Plumas County during the night and some showers may move northward
along the coastal range and into the Bay Area. The GFS is keeping
mountain areas dry until Thursday but does show some potential for
precipitation late Wednesday night along the coastal range.
Thursday both models indicate the best chances for the area.
A fairly deep layer of moisture may help to limit thunderstorm
activity as the moisture moves over the area.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
An approaching upper low that will move over central California,
might bring a chance of showers on Friday mainly south of Lake
Tahoe. The aforementioned low will weaken as it exits our area by
Saturday morning. A trough currently offshore the Pacific NW will
move inland on Saturday bringing a greater chance of precipitation
across our area. Showers will be possible on Sunday as the trough
moves eastward. Dry conditions will return to Northern California
beginning on Monday as high pressure builds in.
VFR conditions across interior NORCAL the next 24 hours.