Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 281551
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
851 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm weather expected through the middle of next week.
Breezy north winds today along western side of Sacramento Valley.
A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible along Sierra
crest through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak trough lingers across NorCal thru Sunday providing some
cloud cover at times. Enough lingering moisture and instability
for a few late day showers or thunderstorms along the Sierra
Crest, mainly to the south of Tahoe. Breezy north winds today in
the Sacramento Valley. Temperatures continue to inch upward a
little above average for late May.

Ridging from the eastern Pacific builds in beginning Memorial Day
bringing an end to northern Sierra deep convection and resulting
in hot weather across NorCal early next week. No updates.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
North winds will be breezy today along the I-5 corridor and
westward in the Sacramento Valley. Interior NorCal will undergo a
warming trend this weekend into the middle of next week as a high
pressure ridge over the Eastern Pacific builds into the West
Coast. Daytime highs will increase by 2-3 degrees each day through
Tuesday. Valley highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today
peaking in the upper 90s by Tuesday. Mountain highs will range 60s
(crest) to low 80s (foothills) today then reach the 70s (crest) to
low 90s (foothills) by Tuesday. With outdoor activities likely
during the holiday weekend, residents should stay well hydrated
and remember to use sunscreen.

Beyond the warming temperatures, the other concern this weekend is
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra. A
low pressure system is located to the south of our region and it
could bring some instability and moisture...mainly to the higher
elevations of the Sierra today and Sunday. Campers or hikers in
the Sierra should keep an eye on the sky and ensure they have a
place to shelter (ie car or safe building) should thunderstorms
develop. JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY)...
Mid range models consistent in keeping upper ridging over western
U.S through the extended period. Maximum temperatures Wednesday
may slip down just a bit from earlier in the week as the upper
ridge axis shifts just east of the forecast area. Highs will still
remain well above normal however with max values running between
10 and 15 degrees above normal. Models show southeast flow aloft
with some instability over the Sierra but moisture is limited. For
now...believe any afternoon shower activity will remain south and
east of the forecast area. Only minor changes are in store for
Thursday as the upper ridge shifts slightly eastward. Still
believe any shower activity will remain south and east of CWA but
most locations should see a slight cooling. Upper ridge continues
it`s very slow progression eastward next Friday for another day of
slight cooling but daytime highs are still likely to come in
around 10 degrees above normal. Models vary a bit towards the end
of next week but all bring some sort of troughing towards the
coast next Saturday. This beefs up the ridge a bit for a little
warming next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds next 24 hours. Isold late day TSRA nrn Sierra crest.
Nly winds gusting to 25 mph Sac Vly til 00Z Sun.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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