Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 110507
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
907 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR NORCAL MAY ARRIVE BY MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern the next couple of days. Clouds ahead of a weak system
will continue to spread inland the next couple of days. This
should help limit any fog formation in the morning hours. A few
light showers/sprinkles may occur along the northwest coast and
west of the coastal range but is not expected to move further
inland.

Friday/Friday night a slightly stronger but still dry system for
the interior will move through and breaks down the ridge to help
bring a slight cooling trend through Friday.

On Saturday after the system passes skies should be clearing and
northerly winds less than 15 mph may warm up valley temperatures
slightly. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year through the period.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

After a little flattening of the strong ridge along the W Coast
early in the weekend...5H heights once again rebuild along the coast
on Sun and into early next week. The axis of the ridge takes on more
of a positive-tilt and so do the NAEFS height anomalies and mean
temp/return intervals...oriented from SW to NE across Norcal. While
the strongest anomalies trend a little S and SE of our CWA...Norcal
will still see a once in very 5-10 yr return period. On Mon...the 1
in every 2 to 5 yr return period at 850 mbs is generally located
from the SFO Bay area into the Sac Vly. So once again...for the SAC
CWA...the Srn portion of the Vly will flirt with near record
maxes...quite "presidential" indeed. (Lower case letter p intended.)
Breezy Nly/katabatic winds down the valley during the day could
boost the maxes to record levels.  The anomalous pattern shifts over
Socal on Tue...so the warmest day looks to be Mon.

Models are still forecasting a positive to neutrally-tilted trof
impacting NorCal near the end of the EFP (Wed-Thu). It does not look
as if this trof will tap into anomalously high TPW values...e.g. the
NAEFS Mean PW anomalies are near normal for our CWA and the
operational GFS 6-hr averaged precip rate is about normal at
.10-.20"/hr. However...snow levels should lower to pass levels
for the Wed nite/Thu periods.    JHM

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Upper ridge axis has shifted Ewd into the Great Basin and SW
flow aloft will continue to spread BKN high cloudiness (Ci/Cs)
into Norcal. Light winds and strong temperature inversions in the
early mornings will lead to local MVFR vsbys in BR in the southern
Sacramento Valley TAF sites, local IFR in FG in the northern San
Joaquin Valley.

&&
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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