Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 102232
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
332 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
Clouds scattering out over NorCal as the recent front has moved
out of the region. Building high pressure will bring dry weather
and milder temperatures for the rest of the week. Breezy to strong
northerly winds are likely Tuesday morning into Tuesday night.
Frontal band from this morning has moved well out of our region
and the clearing skies have allowed more sunshine to reach NorCal
compared to yesterday`s cloudiness. Temperatures at 3 pm were
running up to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday.
High pressure ridging will bring a return of above normal daytime
highs. Tuesday highs will nudge upward and most of interior NorCal
will warm 2-5 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Additional warming on Wednesday and Thursday will push daytime
highs up making them about 5-10 degrees above average. This means
that much of the valley will be in the low to mid 70s while higher
terrain warms into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Main concern in the short term is that as this high pressure ridge
builds tonight into tomorrow, this will enhance the northerly
pressure gradient. Models are indicating that we will have breezy
to locally gusty winds by Tuesday morning. Strongest winds will be
in the Northern Sacramento Valley (Redding-Red Bluff vicinity) and
also along the western side of the Sacramento Valley including
Southern Lake County. We have issued a Wind Advisory for these
regions as we expect sustained winds between 15-25 mph and gusts
around 30 mph or locally higher between 9 am - 8 pm Tuesday.
Models show the northerly pressure gradient relaxing tomorrow
night which should cause winds to fall below advisory criteria.
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Upper level high pressure ridging spreads eastward into the
region late this week, with heights peaking over the weekend. This
will bring a warming trend, with highs peaking on Sunday. Well
above normal temperatures are expected, with low 80s across much
of the Valley. Confidence is lower for next week, with models
diverging on Monday. The 12z ECMWF shows a shortwave brushing to
the north with some precipitation extending into far northern
California. Earlier runs had strong ridging. The GFS for its part just
shifts the ridge axis a little further east of the area. Even if
there is a shortwave, this should be a relatively dry system and
focused more over Oregon. For now will keep weather conditions dry
and just slightly cooler than Sunday. Models diverge even further
beyond Monday, with GFS hinting at precipitation for mid week, while
the ECMWF has a drier pattern. EK
High pres blds alg the west cst with VFR conds thru Tue. In Cntrl
Vly...lcl Nly sfc wnd gsts up to 30 kts poss ovngt...mnly on west
side of vly bcmg wdsprd Nly sfc wnd up to 30 kts with gsts up to 40
kts Tue mrng. Stgst wnds expcd fm late tmrw mrng thru aft fm abt
I-80 nwd. Omnts...lcl N to E sfc wnd gsts up to 45 kts poss ovr
hyr trrn nxt 24 hrs.
wind advisory from 9 am to 8 pm pdt tuesday carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...clear lake/southern lake
county...northern sacramento valley...southern sacramento valley.