Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 180930
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
230 AM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather through most of this week. Widespread rain
and high-elevation snow along with cooler weather returns by the
end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Other than a few high clouds, skies remain clear across the
region. Winds are generally light except for local easterly wind
gusts of 20-30 mph over ridges in the northern Sierra. Current
temperatures are several degrees milder compared to 24 hours ago
and range from mainly the 30s and 40s in the mountains, to the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the Central Valley.

Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue early this week as
the strong blocking ridge over the PacNW and NorCal gradually
weakens. In addition to bringing warm weather, the high will
likely suppress deep convection over NorCal. Highs today will be
around 10-20 degrees above average, and around 5-15 degrees above
average on Tuesday. The north valley may see highs climb into the
mid 80s again today under subsidence and light northerly surface
flow.

The ridge is forecast to weaken beginning mid-week allowing a
return of temperatures closer to average the second half of the
week. A few late-day showers may be possible over the northern
mountains Wednesday and Thursday, but more widespread
precipitation chances will likely hold off until the end of the
week.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
Pacific frontal system modeled to spread widespread light to
moderate precip over interior NorCal Friday into early Saturday.
Associated upper trough and embedded vort maxes progged through
over the weekend keeping showers and mountain snow showers. NBM
keeps POPs over the CWA Monday, however this may be overdone as
potential for upper ridging exists with some model solutions. WPC
QPF for Friday through 12z Monday showing around a third of an
inch in the N San Joaquin Valley to over an inch in the N
Sacramento Valley. 1-3.5 inches of liquid precip predicted in the
foothills and mountains through the same time period. Snow levels
begin around 6000 feet early Friday, lowering to 3500 to 4500 feet
in post frontal airmass over the weekend. Snow accumulations of
5-10 inches possible above 6000 feet with local amounts up to a
foot or more.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with sfc wind
mainly below 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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