Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280429
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
929 PM PDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather into next week with warming temperatures. Breezy to
windy north winds on Friday for the valley and Friday night for
the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northwest winds continue this evening and will shift more towards
the north by morning. Winds are expected to increase during the
morning and afternoon hours becoming breezy to windy over the
valley. The strongest winds will be over the Southern Sacramento
valley and places to the south. A wind advisory may be needed for
those areas. As high pressure build into the great basin in the
evening winds in the evening the gradient shifts east to west
winds will decrease in the valley and increase in the mountains
becoming breezy to locally windy from the northeast to east
direction.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Ridging will build across the state into the weekend as weather
systems are deflected to the north. This will result in dry
weather and warming temperatures through the period. Pressure
gradient will tighten, bringing period of breezy north winds to
the Valley on Friday. Could see a few gusts of 30-40 mph across
the southern Sac and northern San Joaquin valley. Temperatures
will return to near or above average by the weekend.

$$
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

First half of next week looks warm and dry under upper level high
pressure ridge along the west coast. Daytime highs start out
around 10 degrees above normal on Monday then continue to warm to
almost 15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Have bumped up
temperatures slightly from previous forecast as latest runs have
come in warmer with strong ridging. Extended models indicating
north breezy winds at times as weak weather systems pass to the
north. Surface gradients become fairly tight at times across the
north state but northwest flow aloft provides poor upper level
support so these winds should not become a major factor except in
the role of warming temperatures and drying. Upper ridge shifts
inland by next Thursday bringing a return to a more onshore flow
and slightly cooler temperatures although daytime highs are still
expected to remain well above normal. Models show a shortwave
trough passage through the Pacific Northwest and Norcal late next
Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers across the mountains.
Have added low pops over that area to cover the chance. Will have
to see how model trends over future runs.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR TAF sites next 24 hours. North winds increasing Friday with
gusts 20 to 35 knots in the central valley with highest winds
over the northern San Joaquin.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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