Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 282353
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
353 PM PST Fri Nov 28 2014

.Synopsis...
Confidence increasing in both a weekend system and Tuesday-
Wednesday storm system for some wet weather! The today into Sunday
system may bring travel challenges above 6000 feet with 6 to 12
inches of snow expected. The next system on Tuesday/Wednesday
looks wetter and warmer with higher snow levels but more valley
rain.

&&

.Discussion...
Dense Fog around the Delta, Sacramento and Stockton dissipated
around 10 am this morning. Most locations are around 3 to 9
degrees cooler this afternoon compared yesterday due to cloud
cover and cooler air mass. Rain moved into the far northern
portion of the area around 11 am (Redding reporting rain around
1130) and has shifted south with Lake County reporting rain around
1 pm and Chico around 2 pm. The band is expected to reach the I-80
corridor this evening and into the Northern San Joaquin Valley by
early Saturday morning as the jet and precipitable water band sag
south. Precipitation may taper off Saturday afternoon and evening
with some areas possibly seeing some breaks especially in the
Valley. Another wave moves into the area early Sunday bringing
another threat of precipitation...especially over the higher
terrain.

Another wave moves into the area Sunday bringing another round of
precipitation. Temperatures will continue to cool this weekend
with highs in the 50s in the Valley and 30s to mid 40s in the
mountains. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 6000 ft in the
Sierra and 4000-5000 over Shasta County this weekend. Snow amounts
to around a foot are possible above 7000 ft this weekend which
may bring some travel delays over the Sierra and near Mt. Lassen.
Higher amounts are possible over the highest peaks.
Precipitation amounts through Sunday are expected to be around a
half an inch to an inch in the Valley and one to 2 inches for the
foothills and lower mountains. Although locally higher amounts are
possible...especially in the Feather River Basin.

Weak ridging over Northern California Sunday night and Monday
ahead of the a low pressure system off the California coast. This
will provide a break in the precipitation...especially to areas south of
I-80 corridor and the Valley. The low pressure system may be along
the California coast Monday night increasing the threat of
precipitation.

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Confidence coming together again for a nice wet system to move
across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The only real change to
the previous forecast is to raise precip chances throughout the
extended given increasing confidence. System is pretty warm with
snow levels above 7000 feet. ECMWF continues to be wetter than
the GFS and parallel GFS is wetter than the lower res GFS. Total
rain amounts range from around an inch with GFS in the valley to
several inches with ECMWF. Higher terrain will get several
inches with up to 5 inches possible when looking at ECMWF which
is in line with original thoughts with the system...just a slower
arrival.

&&

.Aviation...

MVFR/MVFR conditions initially in rain will deteriorate to
VFR/IFR tonight. Expect snow levels to be around 6000 ft, with
IFR/LIFR conditions over the mountains.

South winds up to 12 kt will be possible tonight in advance of
the front.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm pst sunday
above 6000 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada...
western plumas county/lassen park.

&&

$$







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