Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 300437
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
935 PM PDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm and fairly dry weather will continue early this week. Weak
systems may bring a few intermittent showers to the northern
mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. Another chance of precipitation
possible next weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Updated list below of records/ties for max temps for Mar 29th.
DTS sensor recorded 85.5 (which rounds to 86) after 6 pm.

City Today`s High    Previous Record High

Redding AP8885 (2002)
Red Bluff AP8886 (2002)
Downtown Sac8686 (2002)
Sac Exec AP8483 (2002)
Stockton AP8683 (2004)
Modesto AP8585 (2004)

More record warmth today as high pressure prevailed over Norcal. A
weak short wave passing just south of our CWA triggered some cumulus
and an area of showers/isolated storms just E of the Siernev Crest
this afternoon and into early evening. The activity was just outside
of our CWA along our Alpine/Tuolumne Co borders. This activity has
dissipated with sunset...and as the short wave moves slowly SEwd.
   JHM

The shortwave moves to the east on Monday and an approaching low
pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually break
down the ridge and replace it with cyclonic flow aloft and up valley
flow. (Synoptic cooling is forecast to lower max temps some 2 to 8
degrees over the Nrn half of the CWA...while the Delta breeze cools
Solano Co about 5 degrees with 2 to 3 degrees of cooling in the
Sac/SCK areas. Near persistence or slight warming is expected over
the SErn portion of the CWA. Once again...some max temp records or
ties may occur at SAC (83 in 2001)/SCK (82 in 1966)/MOD (84 1968)
depending on the arrival of the cooling Delta Breeze which may not
be until after max heating in these areas. JHM)

On Tuesday that weak system will pass by to the north and may
bring a few showers over the far north end of the valley and
mountain areas north of I-80. Areas to the south will be
remaining dry but much cooler by 5 to 15 degrees with the greatest
cooling occurring in the mountains.

Another shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday but the
greatest impact looks to be keeping temperatures cool over the
region. Some showers look possible over the northern areas.

&&


.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)

High pressure will return Thursday into Friday and could result
in another period of breezy northerly winds. Longer range models
are hinting at a transition to a cooler and unsettled pattern next
weekend. The GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish with the initial
wave of precipitation than the ECMWF for next weekend. All are
suggesting a colder and wetter system setting up for the following
week. We`ll be paying close attention to model trends.

Dang


&&

.Aviation...

VFR SCT-BKN250 conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Generally
light north winds will become south Monday afternoon as Delta Breeze
and onshore flow increases during the afternoon/evening.

Dang


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$









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